Quasi-biennial oscillation of wind in the low-latitude stratosphere and the winter wave activity of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 558-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. V. Devyatova ◽  
V. I. Mordvinov
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Quasi-biennial oscillation disrupted by abnormal Southern Hemisphere stratosphere

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Anstey ◽  
Tim Banyard ◽  
Neal Butchart ◽  
Lawrence Coy ◽  
Paul Newman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Reliable Source ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Wave Momentum

Abstract The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a repeating cycle of tropical stratosphere winds reversing direction from eastward to westward roughly every 14 months. Discovered independently by British and American scientists the QBO continued uninterrupted for 27 cycles from 1953 until February 2016 when a westward jet unexpectedly formed in the lower stratosphere during the eastward phase. This disruption is attributed to unusually high wave-momentum fluxes from the Northern Hemisphere. A second, similar, QBO disruption occurred during the 2019/2020 northern winter though wave fluxes from the Northern Hemisphere were weak. Here we show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was stronger than that seen in 2016 and resulted from horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere during abnormal winter conditions. In both disruptions the normal downward progression of the QBO halts and the eastward shear zone above the disruption moves upward assisted by stronger tropical upwelling during the boreal winter. The predictable signal associated with the QBO's quasi-regular phase progression is permanently lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if the phase had progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in model climate projections supporting the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment that disruptions to the QBO are likely to be more common in future. Consequently, we anticipate that in future the QBO will be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.

scholarly journals The Emergence of Shallow Easterly Jets within QBO Westerlies

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hitchcock ◽  
Peter H. Haynes ◽  
William J. Randel ◽  
Thomas Birner
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Shear Zones ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Eddy Fluxes ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

A configuration of an idealized general circulation model has been obtained in which a deep, stratospheric, equatorial, westerly jet is established that is spontaneously and quasi-periodically disrupted by shallow easterly jets. Similar to the disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) observed in early 2016, meridional fluxes of wave activity are found to play a central role. The possible relevance of two feedback mechanisms to these disruptions is considered. The first involves the secondary circulation produced in the shear zones on the upper and lower flanks of the easterly jet. This is found to play a role in maintaining the aspect ratio of the emerging easterly jet. The second involves the organization of the eddy fluxes by the mean flow: the presence of a weak easterly anomaly within a tall, tropical, westerly jet is demonstrated to produce enhanced and highly focused wave activity fluxes that reinforce and strengthen the easterly anomalies. The eddies appear to be organized by the formation of strong potential vorticity gradients on the subtropical flanks of the easterly anomaly. Similar wave activity and potential vorticity structures are found in the ERA-Interim for the observed QBO disruption, indicating this second feedback was active then.

scholarly journals Stratospheric Bimodality: Can the Equatorial QBO Explain the Regime Behavior of the NH Winter Vortex?

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (14) ◽  
pp. 3953-3966 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Phase Locking ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Bimodal Distribution ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Weak State ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
General Picture ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract The Northern Hemisphere extended winter mean stratospheric vortex alternates between a strong and a weak state, which is manifested in a statistically significant bimodal distribution. In the end of the 1970s a regime change took place, increasing the frequency of the strong phase relative to the weak phase. This paper investigates the connection between the regime behavior of the vortex and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in three different datasets. Although there are some differences between the datasets, they agree regarding the general picture. It is found that stratospheric equatorial wind between 70 and 8 hPa shows a bimodal structure in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Such bimodality is nontrivial as it requires only weak variability in the amplitude. Unimodality is found above 8 hPa, where the semiannual oscillation dominates. A strong coincidence is found between strong (weak) vortex winters and winter in the westerly (easterly) QBO regime. Furthermore, the change of the vortex in the late 1970s can be related to a change in the QBO from a period with strong bimodality to a period with weak bimodality. Careful consideration of the statistical significance shows that this change in the QBO can be a random process simply related to the annual sampling of the QBO. Finally, previous findings of phase locking between the QBO and the annual cycle are considered; it is shown that the phase locking is related to the seasonal variations in the bimodality of the QBO.

scholarly journals Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 247-259
Author(s):  
Kirsten J. Mayer ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known to force extratropical weather days to weeks following an MJO event through excitation of stationary Rossby waves, also referred to as tropical–extratropical teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that this tropically forced midlatitude response leads to increased prediction skill on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. Furthermore, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been shown to possibly alter these teleconnections through modulation of the MJO itself and the atmospheric basic state upon which the Rossby waves propagate. This implies that the MJO–QBO relationship may affect midlatitude circulation prediction skill on S2S timescales. In this study, we quantify midlatitude circulation sensitivity and prediction skill following active MJOs and QBOs across the Northern Hemisphere on S2S timescales through an examination of the 500 hPa geopotential height field. First, a comparison of the spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere sensitivity to the MJO during different QBO phases is performed for European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) hindcasts. Secondly, differences in prediction skill in ECMWF and NCEP hindcasts are quantified following MJO–QBO activity. In both hindcast systems, we find that regions across the Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic demonstrate an enhanced MJO impact on prediction skill during strong QBO periods with lead times of 1–4 weeks compared to MJO events during neutral QBO periods.

scholarly journals Subseasonal Midlatitude Prediction Skill Following QBO-MJO Activity

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsten J. Mayer ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Height Field ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known to force extratropical weather days-to-weeks following an MJO event through excitation of stationary Rossby waves, tropical-extratropical teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that this tropically forced midlatitude response leads to increased prediction skill on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. Furthermore, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been shown to possibly alter these teleconnections through modulation of the MJO itself and the atmospheric basic state upon which the Rossby waves propagate. This implies that the MJO-QBO relationship may affect midlatitude circulation prediction skill on S2S timescales. In this study, we quantify midlatitude circulation sensitivity and prediction skill following active MJOs and QBOs across the Northern Hemisphere on S2S timescales through an examination of the 500 hPa geopotential height field. First, a comparison of the spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere sensitivity to the MJO during different QBO phases is performed for ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF and NCEP hindcasts. Secondly, differences in prediction skill in ECMWF and NCEP hindcasts are quantified following MJO-QBO activity. We find that regions across the Pacific, North America and the Atlantic exhibit increased prediction skill following MJO-QBO activity, but these regions are not always collocated with the locations most sensitive to the MJO under a particular QBO state. Both hindcast systems demonstrate enhanced prediction skill 7–14 days following active MJO events during strong QBO periods compared to MJO events during neutral QBO periods.

Has the stratospheric HCl in the Northern Hemisphere been increasing since 2005

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Han ◽  
Wenshou Tian ◽  
Fei Xie
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Joint Effect ◽  
Residual Circulation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
North Polar ◽  
North Polar Vortex ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

<p>Stratospheric hydrogen chloride (HCl) is the main stratospheric reservoir of chlorine, deriving from the decomposition of chlorine-containing source gases. Its trend has been used as a metrics of ozone depletion or recovery. Using the latest satellite observations, the authors find that a significant increase of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric HCl during 2010–2011 can mislead trends of HCl in recent decades. Agree with previous studies, HCl increased from 2005 to 2011; while when removing the large increase of stratospheric HCl during 2010–2011, the increasing linear trend from 2005 to 2011 becomes weak and insignificant, in addition, the linear trend of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric HCl from 2005 to 2016 also shows weak and insignificant. The significant increase of HCl during 2010–2011 is attributed to a super strong north polar vortex and a reduced residual circulation during 2010–2011, which slowed down the transport of HCl from the low–mid latitudes to the high latitudes, leading to accumulation of HCl in the middle latitudes of the stratosphere during 2010–2011. Further analysis suggests that the strong polar vortex and the reduced residual circulation were caused by the joint effect of a La Niña event and the west phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.</p>

scholarly journals Modes of zonal mean temperature variability 20–100 km from the TIMED/SABER observations

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Jiang ◽  
Z. Sheng ◽  
H. Q. Shi
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The North ◽  
Broadband Emission ◽  
Mesospheric Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Temperature Inversions ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. In this study we investigate the spatial variabilities of the zonal mean temperature (20–100 km) from the TIMED (Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics and Dynamics)/SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) satellite using the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). After removing the climatological annual mean, the first three EOFs are able to explain 87.0% of temperature variabilities. The primary EOF represents 74.1% of total anomalies and is dominated by the north–south contrast. Patterns in the second and third EOFs are related to the semiannual oscillations (SAO) and mesospheric temperature inversions (MTI), respectively. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) component is also decomposed into the seventh EOF with contributions of 1.2%. Last, we use the first three modes and annual mean temperature to reconstruct the data. The result shows small differences are in low latitude, which increase with latitude in the middle stratosphere and upper mesosphere.

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