scholarly journals Sub‐seasonal predictability of the 2017–2018 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. e886 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Gregory ◽  
Joanne Camp ◽  
Katrina Bigelow ◽  
Andrew Brown
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Season

Progress toward Cloud-Cleared Infrared radiance assimilation in a global modeling framework: Application to the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niama Boukachaba ◽  
Oreste Reale ◽  
Erica L. McGrath-Spangler ◽  
Manisha Ganeshan ◽  
Will McCarty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
Infrared Radiance ◽  
Radiance Assimilation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Season

<p>Previous work by this team has demonstrated that assimilation of IR radiances in partially cloudy regions is beneficial to numerical weather predictions (NWPs), improving the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global analyses and forecasts. The specific technique used by this team is based on the “cloud-clearing CC” methodology. Cloud-cleared hyperspectral IR radiances (CCRs), if thinned more aggressively than clear-sky radiances, have shown a strong impact on the analyzed representation and structure of TCs. However, the use of CCRs in an operational context is limited by 1) latency; and 2) external dependencies present in the original cloud-clearing algorithm. In this study, the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) CC algorithm was (a) ported to NASA high end computing resources (HEC), (b) deprived of external dependencies, and (c) parallelized improving the processing by a factor of 70. The revised AIRS CC algorithm is now customizable, allowing user’s choice of channel selection, user’s model's fields as first guess, and could perform in real time. This study examines the benefits achieved when assimilating CCRs using the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) hybrid 4DEnVar system. The focus is on the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season with three infamous hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, and Maria) investigated in depth.  The impact of assimilating customized CCRs on the analyzed representation of tropical cyclone horizontal and vertical structure and on forecast skill is discussed.</p>

scholarly journals On tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Trends and the ENSO connection

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Kuleshov ◽  
L. Qi ◽  
R. Fawcett ◽  
D. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity

Northeast Pacific annual accumulated cyclonic energy rank-profile

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150083
Author(s):  
Elio Roca-Flores ◽  
Gerardo G. Naumis
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sliding Window ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Energy Index ◽  
Northeast Pacific ◽  
Hurricane Activity ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Season ◽  
Maximum Sustained Wind Speed ◽  
Dissipation Processes

The ranking of events is a powerful way to study the complexity of rare catastrophic events as earthquakes and hurricanes. Hurricane activity can be quantified by the annual accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE), which contains the information of the maximum sustained wind speed, duration and frequency of the tropical cyclone season. Here, the ranking of the Northeast Pacific annual ACE is obtained and fitted using nonlinear regression with several two- and three-parameter ranking laws that fit the tail and head of the data, where lives the information of relevant events for human society. The logarithmic like function [Formula: see text] overperforms all other fits. A sliding window analysis of the parameters [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] of such a function shows that forcing and dissipation processes are anticorrelated.

International Weather Highlights 2016: Record Heat, El Niño, A Wacky Tropical Cyclone Season

Weatherwise ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 20-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas LeComte
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Season

scholarly journals A High-Resolution Simulation of Asymmetries in Severe Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Larry (2006)

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (12) ◽  
pp. 4171-4187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish A. Ramsay ◽  
Lance M. Leslie ◽  
Jeffrey D. Kepert
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Frictional Convergence

Abstract Advances in observations, theory, and modeling have revealed that inner-core asymmetries are a common feature of tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, the inner-core asymmetries of a severe Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone, TC Larry (2006), are investigated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Kepert–Wang boundary layer model. The MM5-simulated TC exhibited significant asymmetries in the inner-core region, including rainfall distribution, surface convergence, and low-level vertical motion. The near-core environment was characterized by very low environmental vertical shear and consequently the TC vortex had almost no vertical tilt. It was found that, prior to landfall, the rainfall asymmetry was very pronounced with precipitation maxima consistently to the right of the westward direction of motion. Persistent maxima in low-level convergence and vertical motion formed ahead of the translating TC, resulting in deep convection and associated hydrometeor maxima at about 500 hPa. The asymmetry in frictional convergence was mainly due to the storm motion at the eyewall, but was dominated by the proximity to land at larger radii. The displacement of about 30°–120° of azimuth between the surface and midlevel hydrometeor maxima is explained by the rapid cyclonic advection of hydrometeors by the tangential winds in the TC core. These results for TC Larry support earlier studies that show that frictional convergence in the boundary layer can play a significant role in determining the asymmetrical structures, particularly when the environmental vertical shear is weak or absent.

The 1978/79 tropical cyclone season

1979 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN OLIVER
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Season

scholarly journals Prospects for Improving the Operational Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (03) ◽  
pp. 298-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuriy Kuleshov ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Jemishabye Apajee ◽  
Robert Fawcett ◽  
David Jones
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND PROBABILITY FORECASTING FOR THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

1985 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Jarrell ◽  
Brand
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Probability Forecasting
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