Progress toward Cloud-Cleared Infrared radiance assimilation in a global modeling framework: Application to the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niama Boukachaba ◽  
Oreste Reale ◽  
Erica L. McGrath-Spangler ◽  
Manisha Ganeshan ◽  
Will McCarty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
Infrared Radiance ◽  
Radiance Assimilation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Season

<p>Previous work by this team has demonstrated that assimilation of IR radiances in partially cloudy regions is beneficial to numerical weather predictions (NWPs), improving the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global analyses and forecasts. The specific technique used by this team is based on the “cloud-clearing CC” methodology. Cloud-cleared hyperspectral IR radiances (CCRs), if thinned more aggressively than clear-sky radiances, have shown a strong impact on the analyzed representation and structure of TCs. However, the use of CCRs in an operational context is limited by 1) latency; and 2) external dependencies present in the original cloud-clearing algorithm. In this study, the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) CC algorithm was (a) ported to NASA high end computing resources (HEC), (b) deprived of external dependencies, and (c) parallelized improving the processing by a factor of 70. The revised AIRS CC algorithm is now customizable, allowing user’s choice of channel selection, user’s model's fields as first guess, and could perform in real time. This study examines the benefits achieved when assimilating CCRs using the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) hybrid 4DEnVar system. The focus is on the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season with three infamous hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, and Maria) investigated in depth.  The impact of assimilating customized CCRs on the analyzed representation of tropical cyclone horizontal and vertical structure and on forecast skill is discussed.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Adaptively Thinned AIRS Cloud-Cleared Radiances on Tropical Cyclone Representation in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 909-931 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oreste Reale ◽  
Erica L. McGrath-Spangler ◽  
Will McCarty ◽  
Daniel Holdaway ◽  
Ronald Gelaro
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Adaptive Strategy ◽  
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ◽  
Full Agreement ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
Moving Domain ◽  
Global Data

Abstract A simple adaptive thinning methodology for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances is evaluated through a combination of observing system experiments (OSEs) and adjoint methodologies. The OSEs are performed with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS, version 5) data assimilation and forecast model. In addition, the adjoint-based forecast sensitivity observation impact technique is applied to assess fractional contributions of sensors in different thinning configurations. The adaptive strategy uses a denser AIRS coverage in a moving domain centered around tropical cyclones (TCs) but sparser everywhere else. The OSEs consist of two sets of data assimilation runs that cover the period from 1 September to 10 November 2014, with the first 20 days discarded for spinup. Both sets assimilate all conventional and satellite observations used operationally. In addition, one ingests clear-sky AIRS radiances, the other cloud-cleared radiances, each comprising multiple thinning strategies. Daily 7-day forecasts are initialized from all these analyses and evaluated with a focus on TCs over the Atlantic and Pacific. Evidence is provided on the effectiveness of this simple TC-centered adaptive radiance thinning strategy, in full agreement with previous theoretical studies. Specifically, global skill increases, and tropical cyclone representation is substantially improved. The improvement is particularly strong when cloud-cleared radiances are assimilated. Finally, the article suggests that cloud-cleared radiances, if thinned more aggressively than the currently used clear-sky radiances, could successfully replace them with large improvements in TC forecasting and no loss of global skill.

scholarly journals Modeling of photolysis rates over Europe: impact on chemical gaseous species and aerosols

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1711-1727 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Real ◽  
K. Sartelet
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Quantum Yields ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Peak Reduction ◽  
Gaseous Species ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Photolysis Rate ◽  
Photolysis Rates ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of photolysis rate calculation on simulated European air composition and air quality. In particular, the impact of the cloud parametrisation and the impact of aerosols on photolysis rates are analysed. Photolysis rates are simulated using the Fast-JX photolysis scheme and gas and aerosol concentrations over Europe are simulated with the regional chemistry-transport model Polair3D of the Polyphemus platform. The photolysis scheme is first used to update the clear-sky tabulation of photolysis rates used in the previous Polair3D version. Important differences in photolysis rates are simulated, mainly due to updated cross-sections and quantum yields in the Fast-JX scheme. In the previous Polair3D version, clouds were taken into account by multiplying the clear-sky photolysis rates by a correction factor. In the new version, clouds are taken into account more accurately by simulating them directly in the photolysis scheme. Differences in photolysis rates inside clouds can be large but outside clouds, and especially at the ground, differences are small. To take into account the impact of aerosols on photolysis rates, Polair3D and Fast-JX are coupled. Photolysis rates are updated every hour. Large impact on photolysis rates is observed at the ground, decreasing with altitude. The aerosol specie that impact the most photolysis rates is dust especially in south Europe. Strong impact is also observed over anthropogenic emission regions (Paris, The Po and the Ruhr Valley) where mainly nitrate and sulphate reduce the incoming radiation. Differences in photolysis rates lead to changes in gas concentrations, with the largest impact simulated on OH and NO concentrations. At the ground, monthly mean concentrations of both species are reduced over Europe by around 10 to 14% and their tropospheric burden by around 10%. The decrease in OH leads to an increase of the life-time of several species such as VOC. NO2 concentrations are not strongly impacted and O3 concentrations are mostly reduced at the ground (−3%). O3 peaks are systematically decreased because of the NO2 photolysis rate coefficient decrease. Not only gas are impacted but also secondary aerosols, due to changes in gas precursors concentrations. However changes in aerosol species concentrations often compensate each other resulting in a low impact on PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations (lower than 2%). The changes in gas concentrations at the ground induced by the modification of photolysis rates (by aerosols and clouds) are compared to changes induced by 29 different model parametrisations in Roustan et al. (2010). Among the 31 model parametrisations, "including aerosols on photolysis rates calculation" has the strongest impact on OH concentrations and on O3 bias in July. In terms of air quality, ground concentrations (NO2, O3, PM10) are compared with measurements. Changes arising from cloud parametrisation are small. Simulation performances are often slightly better when including aerosol in photolysis rates calculation. The systematic O3 peak reduction leads to large differences in the exceedances of the European O3 standard as calculated by the model, in better agreement with measurements. The number of exceedances of the information and the alert threshold is divided by 2 when the aerosol impact on photochemistry is simulated. This shows the importance of taking into account aerosols impact on photolysis rates in air quality studies.

scholarly journals An Improvement in Forecasting Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Using Clear-Sky Full Spatial Resolution Advanced IR Soundings

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 821-827 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Liu ◽  
Jun Li
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Typhoon Track ◽  
High Vertical Resolution

Abstract Hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders, such as the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), provide unprecedented global atmospheric temperature and moisture soundings with high vertical resolution and accuracy. In this paper, the authors investigate whether advanced IR soundings of water vapor and temperature observations can improve the analysis of a tropical cyclone vortex and the forecast of rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone. Both the IR water vapor and temperature soundings significantly improve the typhoon vortex in the analysis and the forecast of the rapid intensification of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008). The typhoon track forecast is also substantially improved when the full spatial resolution AIRS soundings are assimilated. This study demonstrates the potential important application of high spatial and hyperspectral IR soundings in forecasting tropical cyclones.

When Do Psychopathic Traits Affect Cooperative Behavior?: An Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma Experimental Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Testori ◽  
M Kempf ◽  
RB Hoyle ◽  
Hedwig Eisenbarth
Keyword(s):  
Prisoner's Dilemma ◽  
Cooperative Behavior ◽  
Prisoner’S Dilemma ◽  
Selection Procedure ◽  
Psychopathic Traits ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Iterated Prisoner’S Dilemma

© 2019 Hogrefe Publishing. Personality traits have been long recognized to have a strong impact on human decision-making. In this study, a sample of 314 participants took part in an online game to investigate the impact of psychopathic traits on cooperative behavior in an iterated Prisoner's dilemma game. We found that disinhibition decreased the maintenance of cooperation in successive plays, but had no effect on moving toward cooperation after a previous defection or on the overall level of cooperation over rounds. Furthermore, our results underline the crucial importance of a good model selection procedure, showing how a poor choice of statistical model can provide misleading results.

The Impact of Economic Crisis on Tourism Industry: A Bangladesh Perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Ziaul Haque
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Sustained Recovery ◽  
The Impact

The tourism sector is experiencing numerous challenges as a result of the global economic crisis. After a significant contraction in 2009, tourism rebounded strongly  in  2010  and  in  2011  the  international  tourist  arrivals  and  receipts  are projected to increase substantially. The Tourism industry is expected to show a sustained recovery in 2012. The crisis has particularly strong impact and slightly negative consequences in Bangladesh. The country is undergoing a political crisis, as well, and it seems that the forthcoming elections may be the only solution for the restoration of stability and social peace.  In addition, tourism can be the driving force behind Bangladesh economic recovery. However, for its achievement the country’s policy makers should take several measures towards restructuring and improving the sector. These measures include: enhancement of alternative forms of tourism; environmental protection; creation of quality infrastructure; and boost of competitiveness through a tourism product that offers value for money

The Impact Of Economic Crisis On Tourism Industry: A Bangladesh Perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Md. Ziaul Haque
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Sustained Recovery ◽  
The Impact

The tourism sector is experiencing numerous challenges as a result of the global economic crisis. After a significant contraction in 2009, tourism rebounded strongly  in  2010  and  in  2011  the  international  tourist  arrivals  and  receipts  are projected to increase substantially. The Tourism industry is expected to show a sustained recovery in 2012. The crisis has particularly strong impact and slightly negative consequences in Bangladesh. The country is undergoing a political crisis, as well, and it seems that the forthcoming elections may be the only solution for the restoration of stability and social peace.  In addition, tourism can be the driving force behind Bangladesh economic recovery. However, for its achievement the country’s policy makers should take several measures towards restructuring and improving the sector. These measures include: enhancement of alternative forms of tourism; environmental protection; creation of quality infrastructure; and boost of competitiveness through a tourism product that offers value for money

Cost of Dementia and Its Correlation With Dependence

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 1448-1464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Örjan Åkerborg ◽  
Andrea Lang ◽  
Anders Wimo ◽  
Anders Sköldunger ◽  
Laura Fratiglioni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Ability ◽  
Resource Utilization ◽  
Annual Cost ◽  
Neuropsychiatric Symptoms ◽  
Dementia Care ◽  
Cost Of Care ◽  
Path Model ◽  
National Study ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
The Impact

Objective: To estimate the cost of dementia care and its relation to dependence. Method: Disease severity and health care resource utilization was retrieved from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care. Informal care was assessed with the Resource Utilization in Dementia instrument. A path model investigates the relationship between annual cost of care and dependence, cognitive ability, functioning, neuropsychiatric symptoms, and comorbidities. Results: Average annual cost among patients diagnosed with dementia was €43,259, primarily incurred by accommodation. Resource use, that is, institutional care, community care, and accommodation, and corresponding costs increased significantly by increasing dependency. Path analysis showed that cognitive ability, functioning, and neuropsychiatric symptoms were significantly correlated with dependence, which in turn had a strong impact on annual cost. Discussion: This study confirms that cost of dementia care increases with dependence and that the impact of other disease indicators is mainly mediated by dependence.

scholarly journals Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Cencetti ◽  
G. Santin ◽  
A. Longa ◽  
E. Pigani ◽  
A. Barrat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Physical Distance ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractDigital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing contagion dynamics. We fill this gap with a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing in the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate how well contact tracing apps, coupled with the quarantine of identified contacts, can mitigate the spread in real environments. We find that restrictive policies are more effective in containing the epidemic but come at the cost of unnecessary large-scale quarantines. Policy evaluation through their efficiency and cost results in optimized solutions which only consider contacts longer than 15–20 minutes and closer than 2–3 meters to be at risk. Our results show that isolation and tracing can help control re-emerging outbreaks when some conditions are met: (i) a reduction of the reproductive number through masks and physical distance; (ii) a low-delay isolation of infected individuals; (iii) a high compliance. Finally, we observe the inefficacy of a less privacy-preserving tracing involving second order contacts. Our results may inform digital contact tracing efforts currently being implemented across several countries worldwide.

scholarly journals The Effect of Atmosphere–Ocean Coupling on the Structure and Intensity of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa in the Southwest Indian Ocean

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 688
Author(s):  
Soline Bielli ◽  
Christelle Barthe ◽  
Olivier Bousquet ◽  
Pierre Tulet ◽  
Joris Pianezze
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Ocean Mixed Layer ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Left Hand ◽  
Sea Surface Cooling ◽  
The Impact

A set of numerical simulations is relied upon to evaluate the impact of air-sea interactions on the behaviour of tropical cyclone (TC) Bejisa (2014), using various configurations of the coupled ocean-atmosphere numerical system Meso-NH-NEMO. Uncoupled (SST constant) as well as 1D (use of a 1D ocean mixed layer) and 3D (full 3D ocean) coupled experiments are conducted to evaluate the impact of the oceanic response and dynamic processes, with emphasis on the simulated structure and intensity of TC Bejisa. Although the three experiments are shown to properly capture the track of the tropical cyclone, the intensity and the spatial distribution of the sea surface cooling show strong differences from one coupled experiment to another. In the 1D experiment, sea surface cooling (∼1 ∘C) is reduced by a factor 2 with respect to observations and appears restricted to the depth of the ocean mixed layer. Cooling is maximized along the right-hand side of the TC track, in apparent disagreement with satellite-derived sea surface temperature observations. In the 3D experiment, surface cooling of up to 2.5 ∘C is simulated along the left hand side of the TC track, which shows more consistency with observations both in terms of intensity and spatial structure. In-depth cooling is also shown to extend to a much deeper depth, with a secondary maximum of nearly 1.5 ∘C simulated near 250 m. With respect to the uncoupled experiment, heat fluxes are reduced from about 20% in both 1D and 3D coupling configurations. The tropical cyclone intensity in terms of occurrence of 10-m TC wind is globally reduced in both cases by about 10%. 3D-coupling tends to asymmetrize winds aloft with little impact on intensity but rather a modification of the secondary circulation, resulting in a slight change in structure.

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