scholarly journals Loan Supply Shocks and the Business Cycle

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 764-782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Gambetti ◽  
Alberto Musso
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Loan Supply ◽  
The Business Cycle

scholarly journals Real vs. nominal cycles: a multistate Markov-switching bi-factor approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Leiva-Leon
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Simultaneous Inferences

AbstractThis paper proposes a probabilistic model based on comovements and nonlinearities useful to assess the type of shock affecting each phase of the business cycle. By providing simultaneous inferences on the phases of real activity and inflation cycles, contractionary episodes are dated and categorized into demand, supply and mix recessions. The impact of shocks originated in the housing market over the business cycle is also assessed, finding that recessions are usually accompanied by housing deflationary pressures, while expansions are mainly influenced by housing demand shocks, with the only exception occurred during the period surrounding the “Great Recession,” affected by expansionary housing supply shocks.

scholarly journals Should the EMU stop enlarging?

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 459-477
Author(s):  
Tanja Broz
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
New Eu Member States ◽  
Over Time

The aim of this research is to assess what would happen with the business cycle synchronization in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), if all new EU member states introduced the euro. In addition, the paper aims to explore how business cycle correlations have evolved over time. The assumption is that, if business cycles in the EMU members are not correlated and the state of integration remains as it is, the ECB?s one-size-fits-all policy will require members to follow policies which are politically difficult to implement. Hence, we are analyzing whether the EMU should stop accepting new entrants in order to stop deteriorating mutual business cycle correlation. Results based on correlations of shocks between the EMU and individual countries and their sizes show that correlation of supply shocks would remain relatively high if all members introduced the euro, but low correlation of demand shocks, different sizes of shocks and transmission of shocks still remain as significant problems.

Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

CFA Digest ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-43
Author(s):  
Daniel B. Cashion
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
The Business Cycle

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

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