Political Economy of Cross-Strait Relations

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interrelation of political and economic factors in Cross-Strait relations. The main political factor considered in the study is the policy of the ruling party in Taiwan towards the Mainland, its acceptance of Beijings One China policy and 1992 Consensus, put forward by Mainland China as a political basis for building Cross-Strait dialogue between the parties. Key economic factors include economic cooperation and exchanges between the two sides in such fields as bilateral trade, international capital flows and tourism. The relevance of the study refers to the settlement of the so-called Taiwan issue and the implementation of the complete reunification of the Peoples Republic of China that embodies one of the fundamental interests of Mainland China. The aim of the research is to examine the impact of political cycle in Taiwan on the economic cooperation between Beijing and Taipei, the further intensification of which could lead to the peaceful reunification through economic integration. The study provides a broad overview of the development of relations between Taiwan and Mainland China, focusing on the policies of the Taipei administrations from 1949 to 2019 and its impact on economic cooperation between the two sides. The methodological framework of the paper is mainly based on international political economy. The results of the research suggest that political cycle in Taiwan has almost no impact on Cross-Strait trade and investment. Meanwhile it has quite significant influence on Cross-Strait tourism, especially from the PRC, as it has the administrative means of regulation of the number of Mainland tourists wishing to visit Taiwan.

A typology of alternative online political media in the United Kingdom: A longitudinal content analysis (2015–2018)

Alternative online political media (AOPM) have become increasingly prominent elements of the media system in many countries. In response, numerous academic studies have examined the nature of these newer forms of alternative media. In line with this recent scholarship, in this study we carry out a longitudinal and systematic content analysis of nine AOPM websites in the United Kingdom (UK) ( N = 3452) between 2015 and 2018. Overall, we found a diversity of content, contrasting values and degrees of partisanship, which we develop into a typology of outlets. This includes four overlapping areas: electoral hyperpartisans, cultural partisans, political cycle specialists and vernacular macro-blogs. We conclude by recommending that scholars need to develop more detailed content analyses in order to better understand online alternative media, their interactions with the wider media system, and the system itself.

Taylor’s rule, political cycle, and Latin America—An analysis of time series in search of responsibility for monetary stabilization

The decades before 1990 were dramatic for Latin American economies. However, from 1990 onwards, a set of policies followed by the various states in the region acheived economic stabilization with real income recovery. The attribution of this success has been disputed by politicians, economists and officials from international economic support institutions. This work will analyze the responsibility for this success in 4 economies in the region (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). Through the combined analysis of ARDL, Markov states and structural breaks, we highlight different sources of responsibility in different periods. Additionally, detailing the states of each regime, we verify the duration of the regimes related to inflation rates and to interest rates in the region. We identify specific governments as associated with moments of economic stabilization in the region, so the hypothesis of the political cycle cannot be rejected for the set of results achieved. As policy implication, we claim that Taylor rules are endogenous to Political Budget Cycles and so stabilization plans are restricted to political tenures.

Parliamentary Elections in Bulgaria

The subject of this paper is the 2021 Bulgarian election to the National Assembly, which in fact turned into an electoral revolution. It scrutinizes its outcomes along with the reasons for the failure of all existing parties and the success of political newcomers. It considers the “stalemate” alignment of forces of an extremely fragmented parliament and forecasts possible developments. It resumes that the end of the ten-year tenure of Boyko Borisov was enforced by the new generation of the electorate that did not see life prospects under the current regime. The entry into politics of the showman Slavi Trifonov as a next idol of public opinion, is consistent with similar processes in neighboring countries and replicates the political cycle already observed twice in Bulgaria. This experience prompts caution in assessing the chances of a genuine renewal of the system of governance under new leadership.

A Theory of Hegemonic Stability in South American Regionalism? Evidence from the Case of Brazil in UNASUR and Venezuela in ALBA

Both Brazil and Venezuela structured their foreign policy agendas in the early 21st century on the projection of their respective leadership in regional schemes such as UNASUR and ALBA, respectively, following an intermediate hegemonic strategy. The loss of dynamism of these post-hegemonic initiatives problematizes the relationship between regional governance and the role of regional powers. ALBA is a scheme contingent on the political cycle and political voluntarism intrinsic in Venezuela’s leadership. The bloc has lost members and relevance in recent years. As for UNASUR, most of its member states have withdrawn from the bloc and it is currently not operating. In short, post-hegemonic proposals lose dynamism and support once the leadership that promoted them weakens. A certain ‘hegemonic stability theory’ contextualized to South America with regard to the leadership of Brazil and Venezuela in recent years seems to be fulfilled: the decline in power of these countries helps to account for political reversals and changes in regional governance.

Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment*

We document a strong political cycle in bank credit and industry outcomes in Turkey. In line with theories of tactical redistribution, state-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province based on electoral competition and political alignment of incumbent mayors. This effect only exists in corporate lending and creates credit constraints for firms in opposition areas, which suffer drops in assets, employment and sales but not firm entry. Financial resources and factors of production are misallocated as more efficient provinces and industries suffer the greatest constraints, reducing aggregate productivity.

Political Budget Cycle, Tax Collection, and Yardstick Competition

This paper exploits the political cycle of Italian municipalities to test for the presence of strategic interactions in the collection of local taxation. The revenue from the personal income tax surcharge—a tax tool of low salience—is (positively) plagued by political manipulation and is found to be a strategic complement, but only when mayors run for re-election, a finding consistent with the yardstick competition hypothesis. More salient fiscal tools, such as property tax and user fees and charges, are also (negatively) affected by budget cycles, but they do not appear to be spatially correlated.

Cycle of Poverty in Developing Countries

Poverty is no longer fashionable even in the less developed countries of the world. The world has deemed poverty-ridden regions of the world as ‘anathema', forbidden, and ignoble. At the same time ways to get out of the menace are regularly strategised over a period of time. The developed countries of the world had been able to nip poverty to the bud significantly, but the developing countries still have a lot to do so as to overcome the menace. Poverty in the developing countries operates in a cycle of repetitions. This makes it difficult to curtail. How can poverty be reduced in the developing countries? This study reveals the reason while poverty has become a domestic phenomenon in developing countries and the way forward. The theory on poverty is evaluated alongside the present economic situation in Africa. The cycle of poverty, which includes the social cycle of poverty (SCP), political cycle of poverty (PCP), and the economic cycle of poverty (ECP), are examined. This study analyses the strategies to break the cycle of poverty in Africa and other developing countries.