Forecasting stock returns with model uncertainty and parameter instability

Abstract This article asks how costly targeted trade sanctions imposed by the US government are for domestic firms. I argue that, as a result of sanctions, the firm value of US companies that have supply relationships with sanctioned entities is likely to suffer from lost revenue, reputational damage, and business model uncertainty. I test this expectation by applying an event study to the important case of targeted trade sanctions against Chinese technology companies. I find that sanctions against these companies reduced their US suppliers’ risk-adjusted stock returns by 220 basis points. Firm-level cross-sectional analysis shows that businesses with stronger ties to the sanctioned entities are more negatively affected, which supports the direct connection between sanctions and relevant suppliers. Measuring the domestic economic ramifications of sanctions for the sender country has been elusive. These findings, which are statistically and economically significant, indicate that US companies face notable costs from sanctions against internationally active firms.

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Freedom Indices and Capital Asset Pricing Model: Some Malaysian Evidence

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting ◽

10.33093/ijomfa.2020.1.1.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 1-21

Author(s):

Ying Tay Lee ◽

Devinaga Rasiah ◽

Ming Ming Lai

Keyword(s):

Human Rights ◽

Asset Pricing ◽

Stock Returns ◽

Firm Size ◽

Explanatory Power ◽

Least Square ◽

Press Freedom ◽

Capital Asset Pricing ◽

Capital Asset ◽

Cross Sectional

Human rights and fundamental freedoms such as economic, political, and press freedoms vary widely from country to country. It creates opportunity and risk in investment decisions. Thus, this study is carried out to examine if the explanatory power of the model for capital asset pricing could be improved when these human rights movement indices are included in the model. The sample for this study comprises of 495 stocks listed in Bursa Malaysia, covering the sampling period from 2003 to 2013. The model applied in this study employed the pooled ordinary least square regression estimation. In addition, the robustness of the model is tested by using firm size as a controlled variable. The findings show that market beta as well as the economic and press freedom indices could explain the cross-sectional stock returns of the Malaysian stock market. By controlling the firm size, it adds marginally to the explanation of the extended CAP model which incorporated economic, political, and press freedom indices.

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