Forecasting Islamic securities index using artificial neural networks: performance evaluation of technical indicators

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to develop a precise Islamic securities index forecasting model using artificial neural networks (ANNs).Design/methodology/approachThe data of daily closing prices of KMI-30 index span from Aug-2009 to Oct-2019. The data of 2,520 observations are divided into training and test data sets by using the 80:20 ratio, which corresponds to 2016 and 504 observations, respectively. In total, 25 features are used; however, in model selection step, based on maximum accuracy, top ten indicators are selected from several iterations of predictive models.FindingsThe results of feature selection show that top five influencing indicators on Islamic index include Bollinger Bands, Williams Accumulation Distribution, Aroon Oscillator, Directional Movement and Forecast Oscillator while Mesa Sine Wave is the least important. The findings show that the model captures much of the trend and some of the undulations of the original series.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study may have important implications for investment and risk management by using index-based products.Originality/valueNumerous studies proved that traditional econometric techniques face significant challenges in out-of-sample predictability due to model uncertainty and parameter instability. Recent studies show an upsurge of interest in machine learning algorithms to improve the prediction accuracy.

Revisiting the Dynamic Linkages of Treasury Bond Yields for the BRICS: A Forecasting Analysis

We examined the dynamic linkages among money market interest rates in the so-called “BRICS” countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) by using weekly data of the overnight, one-, three-, and six- months, as well as of one year, Treasury bills rates covering the period from January 2005 to August 2019. A long-run relationship among interest rates was established by employing the Vector Error Correction modeling (VECM), which revealed the validation of the Expectation Hypothesis Theory (EH) of the term structure of interest rates, taking into account long-run deviations from equilibrium and inherent nonlinearities. We unveiled short-run dynamic adjustments for the term structure of the BRICS, subject to regime switches. We then used Markov Switching Vector Error Correction models (MS-VECM) to forecast them dynamically during an out-of-sample period of May 2016 through August 2019. The MSIH-VECM forecasts were found to be superior to the VECM approaches. The novelty of our paper is mainly due to the exploration of the possibility of parameter instability as a crucial factor, which might explain the rejection of the restricted version of the cointegration space, and on the dynamic out-of-sample forecasts of the term structure over a more recent time span in order to assess further the usefulness of our nonlinear MS-VECM characterization of the term structure, capturing the effects of the global and domestic financial crisis.

Testing Structural Break in the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Variables

The article aims to study the relationship between those macroeconomic factors that the affect (INR/USD) exchange rate (ER). Time series data of 40 years on ER, GDP, inflation, interest rate (IR), FDI, money supply, trade balance (TB) and terms of trade (ToT) have been collected from the RBI website. The considered model has suggested that only inflation, TB and ToT have influenced the ER significantly during the study period. Other macroeconomic variables such as GDP, FDI and IR have not significantly influenced the ER during the study period. The model is robust and does not suffer from residual heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and non-normality. Sometimes the relationship between ER and macroeconomic variables gets affected by major economic events. For example, the Southeast Asian crisis caused by currency depreciation in 1997 and sub-prime loan crisis of 2008 severely strained the national economies. Any global economic turmoil will affect different economic variables through ripple effect and this, in turn, will affect the ER of different economies differently. The article has also diagnosed whether there is any structural break or not in the model by applying Chow’s Breakpoint Test and have obtained multiple breaks between 2003 and 2009. The existence of structural breaks during 2003–2009 is explained by the fact that volume of crude oil imported by India is high and oil price rise led to a deficit in the TB alarmingly, which caused a structural break or parameter instability.

Tests for Structural Breaks in Time Series Analysis: A Review of Recent Development

The issue related to a structural break or change point in the econometric and statistics literature is relatively vast. In recent decades it was increasing, and it got recognized by various researchers. The debates are about a structural break or parameter instability in the econometric models. Over some time, there has been a different mechanism, and theoretical development stretching the fundamental change and strengthen the econometric literature. Estimation of structural break has undergone significant changes. Instead of exploring the presence of a known structural break, now the emphasis is on tracing multiple unknown cracks using dynamic programming. The paper an attempt has been made to review the different forms of the presence of structural break(s) over the past.