The Future of the Mediterranean Basin

1994 ◽  
pp. 287-304
Author(s):  
Michel Grenon
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

Future water-related risks and management options in the Mediterranean basin 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianela Fader ◽  
Carlo Giupponi ◽  
Selmin Burak ◽  
Hamouda Dakhlaoui ◽  
Aristeidis Koutroulis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Climate And Environmental Change ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Future ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

<p>The presentation will summarize the main findings of the chapter “Water”[1] of the report “Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future”. This report was published in November 2020 and prepared by 190 scientists from 25 countries, who belong to the scientific network “Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change”.</p><p>Water resources in the Mediterranean are scarce, unevenly distributed and often mismatching human and environmental needs. Approx. 180 million people in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries suffer from water scarcity (<1000 m<sup>3</sup> capita<sup>-1</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup>). The main water use is for agriculture, and more specifically on the southern and eastern rim. Water demand for both tourism and agriculture peak in summer, potentially enhancing conflicts in the future. Municipal water use is particularly constrained in the south and will likely be exacerbated in the future by demographic and migration phenomena. Northern countries face additional risks in flood prone areas where urban settlements are rapidly increasing.</p><p>Climate change, in combination with demographic and socio-economic developments, has mainly negative consequences for the water cycle in the Mediterranean Basin, including reduced runoff and groundwater recharge, increased crop water requirements, increased conflicts among users, and increased risk of overexploitation and degradation. These impacts will be particularly severe for global warming higher than 2°C.</p><p>Adequate water supply and demand management offers some options to cope with risks. Technical solutions are available for improving water use efficiency and productivity, and increasing reuse. Seawater desalination is increasingly used as adaptation measure to reduce (potable) water scarcity in dry Mediterranean countries, despite known drawbacks in terms of environmental impacts and energy requirements. Promising solar technologies are under development, potentially reducing emissions and costs. Reuse of wastewater is a solution for agriculture and industrial activities but also recharge of aquifers. Inter-basin transfers may lead to controversies and conflicts. Construction of dams contributes to the reduction of water and energy scarcities, but with trade-offs in terms of social and environmental impacts.</p><p>Overall, water demand management, which increases water use efficiency and reduces water losses, is crucial for water governance for a sustainable development. Maintaining Mediterranean diet or coming back to it on the basis of locally produced foods and reducing food wastes may save water but also carbon emissions while having nutritional and health benefits.</p><div><br><div> <p>[1] <strong>Fader M.</strong>, Giupponi C., Burak S., Dakhlaoui H., Koutroulis A., Lange M.A., Llasat M.C., Pulido-Velazquez D., Sanz-Cobeña A. (2020): Water. In: Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, 57pp, in press. Download</p> </div> </div>

scholarly journals Future changes in surface ozone over the Mediterranean Basin in the framework of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 9351-9373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nizar Jaidan ◽  
Laaziz El Amraoui ◽  
Jean-Luc Attié ◽  
Philippe Ricaud ◽  
François Dulac
Keyword(s):  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Precursors ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

Abstract. In the framework of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx; http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr, last access: 22 June 2018) project, we study the evolution of surface ozone over the Mediterranean Basin (MB) with a focus on summertime over the time period 2000–2100, using the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) outputs from 13 models. We consider three different periods (2000, 2030 and 2100) and the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) to study the changes in the future ozone and its budget. We use a statistical approach to compare and discuss the results of the models. We discuss the behavior of the models that simulate the surface ozone over the MB. The shape of the annual cycle of surface ozone simulated by ACCMIP models is similar to the annual cycle of the ozone observations, but the model values are biased high. For the summer, we found that most of the models overestimate surface ozone compared to observations over the most recent period (1990–2010). Compared to the reference period (2000), we found a net decrease in the ensemble mean surface ozone over the MB in 2030 (2100) for three RCPs: −14 % (−38 %) for RCP2.6, −9 % (−24 %) for RCP4.5 and −10 % (−29 %) for RCP6.0. The surface ozone decrease over the MB for these scenarios is much more pronounced than the relative changes of the global tropospheric ozone burden. This is mainly due to the reduction in ozone precursors and to the nitrogen oxide (NOx = NO + NO2)-limited regime over the MB. For RCP8.5, the ensemble mean surface ozone is almost constant over the MB from 2000 to 2100. We show how the future climate change and in particular the increase in methane concentrations can offset the benefits from the reduction in emissions of ozone precursors over the MB.

scholarly journals Future changes in surface ozone over the Mediterranean basin in the framework of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nizar Jaidan ◽  
Laaziz El Amraoui ◽  
Jean-Luc Attié ◽  
Philippe Ricaud ◽  
François Dulac
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Surface O3 ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

Abstract. In the framework of the Chemistry and Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment project (ChArMEx, http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr), we study the evolution of surface ozone (O3) over the Mediterranean Basin (MB) with a focus on summertime over the time period 2000–2100, using the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) outputs from 11 models. We consider three different periods (2000, 2030 and 2100) and the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) to study the changes in the future ozone trend and its budget. We use a statistical approach to compare and discuss the results of the models. We discuss the behavior of the models that simulate the surface O3 over the MB. The ensemble mean of ACCMIP models simulates very well the annual cycle of surface O3. Compared to measured summer surface O3 datasets, we found that most of the models overestimate surface O3 and underestimate its variability over the most recent period (1990–2010) when independent observations are available. Compared to the reference period (2000), we found a net decrease in the ensemble mean surface O3 over the MB in 2030 (2100) for 3 RCPs: −13 % (−36 %) for RCP2.6, −7 % (−22 %) for RCP4.5 and −11 % (−33 %) for RCP6.0. The surface O3 decrease over the MB for these scenarios is much more pronounced than the relative changes of the tropospheric ozone burden. This is mainly due to the reduction in O3 precursors and to the NOx-limited regime over the MB. For the RCP8.5, the ensemble mean surface O3 is almost constant over the MB from 2000 to 2100. We show how the future climate change and the increase in CH4 concentrations can offset the benefit of the reduction in emissions of O3 precursors over the MB.

scholarly journals The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change

2011 ◽  
Vol 366 (1578) ◽  
pp. 2681-2692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luigi Maiorano ◽  
Alessandra Falcucci ◽  
Niklaus E. Zimmermann ◽  
Achilleas Psomas ◽  
Julien Pottier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Terrestrial Mammals ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.

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