Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in East Africa (EA) and South America (SA)

Author(s):  
Anne Nyatichi Omambia ◽  
Ceven Shemsanga ◽  
Ivonne Andrea Sanchez Hernandez
Author(s):  
Anne Nyatichi Omambia ◽  
Ceven Shemsanga ◽  
Ivonne Andrea Sanchez Hernandez

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.


2014 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 123-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piara Singh ◽  
S. Nedumaran ◽  
K.J. Boote ◽  
P.M. Gaur ◽  
K. Srinivas ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
John Musau ◽  
Sopan Patil ◽  
Justin Sheffield ◽  
Michael Marshall

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global climate system via modification of the water and energy balance. Its coupling to climate is therefore important particularly in the tropics, where severe climate change impacts are expected. Vegetation growth is mutually controlled by temperature and water availability while it modifies regional climate through latent heat flux and changes in albedo. Consequently, understanding how projected climate change will impact vegetation and the forcing of vegetation on climate for various land cover types in East Africa is vital. This study provides an assessment of the vegetation trends in East Africa using Leaf Area Index (LAI) time series for the period 1982 to 2011, lead/lag correlation analysis between LAI and climate, a statistical estimation of vegetation feedback on climate using lagged covariance ratios as well as spatial regression analysis. Our results show few significant changes in current LAI trends though persistent declining vegetation trends are shown from Southern Ethiopia extending through Central Kenya into Central Tanzania. Precipitation (temperature) exerts widespread positive (negative) forcing on lagging vegetation except in forests. Positive correlations between the lagging Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) and LAI were dominant compared to temperature. Positive vegetation feedback on precipitation dominates across the region while a stronger negative forcing is exerted on Tmin compared to Tmax. Spatial dependence was also shown as a key component in the vegetation-climate interactions in the region. Given the vital role of land surface dynamics on local and regional climate, these results provide a valuable point of reference for evaluating the land-atmosphere coupling in the region.


2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Niggol Seo ◽  
Robert Mendelsohn

This paper examines climate change impacts on South American agricultureusing a set of Ricardian regressions estimated across different samples of farms in SouthAmerica. Regressions are run for the whole sample and for subsamples of crop-only,mixed, and livestock-only farms. The results indicate that climate sensitivity varies agreat deal across each type of farm. The analysis also reveals that the impacts will varysubstantially across South America. The hot and wet Amazon and Equatorial regionsare likely to lose the most from warming scenarios whereas the more temperate highelevation and southern regions of South America will likely gain.


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