Does the Economic Policy Uncertainty Channel Impact the Influence of Expansionary Monetary Policy Changes on Output Dynamics?

Author(s):  
Eliphas Ndou ◽  
Thabo Mokoena
2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 235-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sen Wang ◽  
Yanni Zeng ◽  
Jiaying Yao ◽  
Hao Zhang

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Y. Jin ◽  
Kiridaran Kanagaretnam ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Gerald J. Lobo

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuegang Song ◽  
Yanling Yang ◽  
Jianzhong Yu ◽  
Zhichao Zhao

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an upsurge economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Study on the time-varying effect of EPU is of substantial implication for the central bank in implementation of monetary policy. To empirically investigate the time-varying effect of EPU, the paper considers the shock of the monetary policy implemented by China's central bank on different economic variables including interest rate, output gap, and inflationary gap using the latent threshold time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (LT-TVP-VAR Model). Data period is chosen to be January 2015 through April 2021. Our findings show that (i) EPU has a significant threshold effect on the shock of quantitative monetary policy instrument and the shock of price-based monetary policy, and that the two types of policy are positively correlated; (ii) the price-based monetary policy instrument has a significant counter-cyclical effect on both output gap and inflationary gap; (iii) relative to the quantitative monetary policy instrument, the price-based monetary policy instrument has a more significant counter-cyclical effect on output gap; and (iv) a higher level of EPU is associated with a more significant monetary policy effect on output gap and inflationary gap.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. p18
Author(s):  
Ta Changdong ◽  
Jiang Yuanying

In recent years, the downward pressure and uncertain factors of my country’s economic development have gradually increased, especially due to the greater impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in early 2020, it is necessary to adjust the monetary policy to make the economy operate stably. Monetary policy is the main means of controlling housing prices, so this article uses the sample data of my country from January 2011 to September 2020, and uses the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-SV-VAR) model under the background of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for the first time to analyze the price-based and quantitative monetary policies are very necessary to regulate and control housing prices. The study found that the increase in economic policy uncertainty will weaken the regulatory role of quantitative monetary policy but will strengthen the regulatory role of price-based monetary policy; the current economic policy uncertainty has increased, especially since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the quantitative monetary policy is unstable, and the price-based monetary policy is the best choice for controlling housing prices.


2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 509-528
Author(s):  
Prince Mensah Osei ◽  
Anokye Adam

This study uses threshold cointegration technique to ascertain the relationship between United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and monetary policy rate (MPR) of each of the four African countries, namely Egypt, Ghana, Namibia and South Africa using monthly data from March 1998 to April 2020. The impact of US EPU on MPR of each country is assessed by examining the linear cointegration, asymmetric cointegration and causal relationships in the frequency domain between the US EPU and MPR of each African country. The findings provide evidence of long-run threshold cointegration and the adjustment mechanisms towards long-run equilibrium are asymmetric in the short run for the MPR models for Ghana, Namibia and South Africa in the M-TAR specification except for Egypt’s MPR model which does not provide evidence of asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium position. The bivariate analysis performed in the spectral frequency domain suggests unidirectional causality between US EPU and MPR of each country and that, the US EPU influences the MPR of each country in the long run. The findings provide important guidelines to monetary policy reviewers to take policy stance that would stimulate economic growth amid US policy uncertainties.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carola Conces Binder

AbstractHow does uncertainty about economic policy translate into uncertainty about macroeconomic outcomes, in particular inflation? New measures of consumer inflation uncertainty are compared to the economic and monetary policy uncertainty indices of [Baker, S., N. Bloom, and S. Davis. 2016. “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.”


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