Front-Loading Agricultural Subsidies: Quantifying Public Savings

Reforms to agricultural policy have been stalling in OECD economies. In this paper, we quantify the potential for public savings from switching to an optimal transfer system in small open economies. Following the insights from the literature on repeated moral hazard, optimal subsidies are front-loaded, which provides stronger incentives for farmers to transition out of agriculture, compared to the existing policies. In our counterfactual experiments, we find government savings of 6% for Chile, 45% for Japan, 24% for Switzerland, and 51% for Turkey. In addition, optimal subsidies more than double the speed of the transition of employment out of agriculture.

Do Inflation Expectations Matter for Small, Open Economies? Empirical Evidence from the Solomon Islands

This paper examines the role of inflation expectations in Solomon Islands, a Pacific Island Country, using the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve model. The study applies the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate the Hybrid New Keynesian Philips Curve model using quarterly time series data for the period 2003–2017. The study confirms the existence of a Hybrid New Keynesian Philips Curve for Solomon Islands and finds that both backward-looking and forward-looking processes matter for inflation. Fuel prices and output gap are important indicators of current inflation. The study highlights key areas to further investigate including the weak monetary transmission mechanism and to examine the exchange rate pass through effect onto domestic prices. Studies on the role of inflation expectations in small, open, economies of the Pacific, such as Solomon Islands, is limited. This paper fills this void in literature by using quarterly time-series data to build a Hybrid New Keynesian Philips Curve model for Solomon Islands.

MEASURES OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS IN THE FIELD OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS CONTROL

The article attempts to identify new trends in approaches to assessing the impact of uncontrolled international capital flows on the development of the national economy and the corresponding changes in regulatory policies. It is pointed out that uncontrolled capital flows pose a special threat to small open economies due to insufficient development of the institutional environment and low depth of financial markets. There has been constructed circle of typical for small open economies risks, conducted with uncontrolled capital flows movement, such as deepening structural imbalances in financial asset markets, undesirable excessive fluctuations in the national currency rate, the flight of national capital and the erosion of the tax base. Based on the analysis of recent research, international regulatory initiatives of EU countries, recommendations of international development institutions and IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework, have been identified such trends as strengthening control over illegal capital flows, limiting of the negative speculative influence, panic and herd behaviour on exchange rate stability. Argued for a very important role which plays an uncontrolled dynamics of national currency rate on the transmission of global shocks to national economies. This necessitates a serious overhaul of exchange rate policy approaches. Central banks of small open economies should consider exchange rate stability as one of their goals. This does not mean inflation targeting abandon. The use of the instrument of currency interventions helps to influence the achievement of external targets, increasing the ability of interest rate policy instruments to achieve inflation targeting in the domestic market as well. As a conclusion and proposals for further development of policies in the financial sector to ensure the sustainable development of small open economies is systematized a list of possible regulatory measures. It is emphasized that the development of regulatory policies in the monetary and financial spheres in small open economies, which includes Ukraine, should be implemented comprehensively and include the development of macroprudential tools to limit systemic risk factors, suppress illicit capital flows and reduce the role of psychological factors of pro-cyclical behavior. The implementation of regulatory measures on transparent terms in such spheres will not make free-market self-regulatory mechanisms weaken, but rather helps to release them.

MODERN TECHNOLOGIES AS A DETERMINANT OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES

The modern age is characterized by strong development and application of information and communication tech- nologies (ICT) and Industry 4.0, which determine sig- nificant changes in the economy and society as a whole, and especially affect production and business processes, economic growth and development, productivity, busi- ness models, required qualifications and workers’ skills, the education system, as well as people’s daily lives. Thanks to that, developed countries are already achiev- ing significant effects in terms of efficiency, productiv- ity, flexibility, gross domestic product (GDP) and living standards growth, and there are opportunities for small open economies to create their own approaches to accel- erate growth and convergence with developed countries. Otherwise, the negative consequences known as digital sharing are also possible. The aim of this paper is to present, based on relevant lit- erature and experiences of individual countries, the po- tentials, challenges and possible responses of economic and business policy makers aimed at the application of ICT and Industry 4.0 in small open economies, such as the Western Balkans. The paper is structured as follows: Introductory remarks - elaboration of the theoretical basis, characteristics and implications of ICT and Industry 4.0 on the economy and society as a whole; Methodology - review of rel- evant current literature; Results - presentation of basic potentials, challenges and possible responses of small open economies in the function of accelerating econom- ic growth; and Discussion - concluding remarks and rec- ommendations for possible responses.

Monetary and macroprudential policy under global financial cycle: The experience of small open economies

This review examines the impact of the global financial cycle on small open economies and compares the effectiveness of various monetary and macroprudential policies in the presence of global financial cycle. First, we provide a classification of the channels through which the monetary policy of the world financial regulators (US Federal Reserve, ECB), which largely determines the global financial cycle, is transmitted to small open economies: the channel for interest rates differential, the channel for the activities of global financial institutions, and the channel for commodity prices. Second, by analyzing the arguments of supporters and critics of the monetary policy trilemma, we show how the literature comes to the conclusion that inflation targeting policy is still one of the most optimal solutions for achieving the goals of price and macroeconomic stability but fails to ensure financial stability. The latter requires active coordination with macroprudential policy measures. These conclusions are supported by the analysis of case studies of specific countries (Russia, New Zealand, Brazil, Turkey, etc.), which attempted to mitigate negative consequences of the 2007—2009 global financial crisis.