One-Class Classification to Predict the Success of Private-Participation Infrastructure Projects in Europe

2019 ◽  
pp. 443-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Álvaro Herrero ◽  
Alfredo Jiménez
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Private Participation ◽  
One Class Classification

What drives the failure of private participation in infrastructure projects?

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1167-1185
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Ruiz Díaz
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Early Termination ◽  
Institutional Factors ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Extrinsic Factors ◽  
Water And Sanitation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Private Participation

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess the determinants of the early termination of infrastructure projects implemented under public–private partnerships (PPP), concessions or privately managed divested assets.Design/methodology/approachCross-section and duration model estimations were applied to a sample of 2,655 infrastructure projects implemented in Latin America and the Caribbean for the period 1993–2017. Estimation techniques consist of a logistic model and cox proportional hazards model (CPHM) applied to alternative specifications, including diverse causal factors.FindingsEvidence is found that early termination of infrastructure projects is determined by intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Among the intrinsic factors, the main characteristics of projects that increase the likelihood of failure are the size or scale of the project, the sector in which the project is developed (transport and water and sanitation) and being investments in divested assets. Extrinsic factors that showed a negative impact on the risk of early termination are good regulatory quality and domestic macroeconomic stability. Likewise, external real and financial shocks also contribute importantly to explain the likelihood of early termination of infrastructure projects.Practical implicationsThe results reveal that particular care must be put in design and supervision of large-scale projects, either in transport or water and sanitation. As well, risks associated with external shocks must be explicitly acknowledged in project design, with appropriate remedies and safeguards. The prevalence of relatively high rates of early termination in projects in divested assets in contrast with PPP suggests the importance of introducing simpler way out mechanisms for concessionaires. Finally, the results show the key importance of institutional factors like regulatory quality in determining project failure on economic performance of infrastructure projects.Originality/valueIn contrast to the previous literature, the analysis shows the decisive role played by financial external factors and institutional factors of Latin American and Caribbean countries in early termination of private participation in infrastructure projects. As well, the finding of a higher likelihood of failure in projects that involve investments in divested assets versus concession or PPP suggests the need of investigate further the tradeoffs regarding the balance that must exist among guarantees offered to investors in infrastructure projects and the need to keep contractual decisions in line with market signals.

The multi-faceted impact of host country risk on the success of private participation in infrastructure projects

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Jiménez ◽  
Secil Bayraktar ◽  
Jeoung Yul Lee ◽  
Seong-Jin Choi
Keyword(s):  
Host Country ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Project Success ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Participation

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the multi-faceted impact of host country risks on the success of private participation in infrastructure projects. The authors make a distinction between exogenous and endogenous risks, differentiating those that are completely beyond the control of the firm from those in which firms might exert some degree of influence to reduce the negative repercussions. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on logistic regression analyses, the authors analyze a sample of 10,350 private participation in infrastructure projects in 126 countries from 1997 to 2014. Findings The authors find that higher levels of exogenous risk are associated with a lower probability of project success, whereas they find no significant effect for endogenous risk. Originality/value By pointing to this differential effect, this study makes a contribution to the current debate in the literature on private participation projects.

Within-country religious diversity and the performance of private participation infrastructure projects

2019 ◽  
Vol 95 ◽  
pp. 13-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Jiménez ◽  
Guoliang Frank Jiang ◽  
Bent Petersen ◽  
Jens Gammelgaard
Keyword(s):  
Religious Diversity ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Private Participation

Governance distance and the performance of cross-border private participation infrastructure projects

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanxi Li ◽  
Heng Zhao ◽  
Shanshan Ouyang
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Private Participation ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Host Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe privatization of infrastructure promotes efficiency and service standards. While cross-border private participation infrastructure (PPI) projects hosted in emerging markets have become more prevalent in recent years, there have also been more failures. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how governance distance affects the survival of cross-border PPI projects.Design/methodology/approachThe authors provide theoretical justification and empirical evidence to verify our views. The authors test the hypotheses on a sample of 4,678 cross-border PPI project investments made in emerging market countries between 1990 and 2016. Estimation techniques consist of a binary logistic regression model and a rare events logistic model.FindingsThe findings suggest that increased governance distance can lead to project failure. The study results show that governance distance is negatively correlated with the probability of project survival. Greenfield investment intensifies the negative effect of governance distance while competitive contracts mitigate the negative effect of governance distance.Practical implicationsThe results reveal that transnational investment in infrastructure projects is susceptible to institutional differences between home and host countries. Therefore, both private enterprises and host government should pay attention to the impact of inter-country differences on negotiations and project operation. Competitive contracts mitigate this negative effect, but entering in the form of greenfield investment amplifies the negative effect of distance.Originality/valueTransnational industrial engineering projects are easily affected by the differences in governance levels between the two countries. This study introduces governance distance into the field of infrastructure projects, focusing on the impact of differences between home and host countries on transnational projects. The findings on infrastructure projects that are closely related to host government contribute to the literature by broadening the research of institution and distance.

Infrastructure Investment and Growth in Developing Countries: Does the Type of Contract Matter?

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Marco Percoco
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Public Private Partnerships ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Private Participation

The aim of this article is to verify whether public investment in infrastructure is effective in terms of growth. While there is extensive literature analysing the effect of public capital stock on development and growth, comparatively less attention has been devoted to the contractual mechanisms characterising this investment. In this article, we focus on private participation in infrastructure projects through forms of public–private partnerships and verify whether the use of such contracts promotes economic growth. By analysing the performance of 81 developing countries over the period 1991–2008, we found that public–private partnerships are particularly relevant in terms of growth for high-income countries, whereas we could not find significant effect for low-income countries. We interpret this result as evidence of the relevance of better institutions, especially in terms of quality of regulation and rule of law, for attracting private investment in infrastructure projects and then for promoting growth.

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