The Effect of Demographic Variability and Periodic Fluctuations on Disease Outbreaks in a Vector–Host Epidemic Model

Author(s):  
Kaniz Fatema Nipa ◽  
Linda J. S. Allen
1999 ◽  
Vol 123 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. RANTA ◽  
P. H. MÄKELÄ ◽  
A. TAKALA ◽  
E. ARJAS

A stochastic epidemic model was applied to meningococcal disease outbreaks in defined small populations such as military garrisons and schools. Meningococci are spread primarily by asymptomatic carriers and only a small proportion of those infected develop invasive disease. Bayesian predictions of numbers of invasive cases were developed, based on observed data using a stochastic epidemic model. We used additional data sets to model both disease probability and duration of carriage. Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques were used to compute the full posterior distribution which summarized all information drawn together from multiple sources.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaodong Wang ◽  
Chunxia Wang ◽  
Kai Wang

AbstractIn this paper, a stochastic SICA epidemic model with standard incidence rate for HIV transmission is proposed. The sufficient conditions of the extinction and persistence in mean for the disease are established. Numerical simulations show that random perturbations can suppress disease outbreaks and the risk of HIV transmission can be reduced by reducing the transmission coefficient of HIV while increasing the strength of the stochastic perturbation.


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fandy Fandy ◽  
Andi Fajeriani Wyrasti ◽  
Tri Widjajanti

<em>Stability and equilibrium of malaria&rsquo;s epidemics in Manokwari Barat district based on SIR epidemic model will be discussed in this paper. The SIR epidemic model can be applied to make a model of endemic diseases like malaria. Based on this research, there are 2 types of the equilibrium of malaria&rsquo;s epidemics in Manokwari Barat District, endemic and non endemic point.</em>


2020 ◽  
pp. 83-88
Author(s):  
Kseniia Artemivna Veklych

Measles is a highly contagious infectious disease caused by an RNA−containing virus of the family Paramyxoviridae and Morbillivirus genus. The most proper way to stop it is a total vaccination. At the moment, live attenuated strains of the Enders − Schwartz measles virus are used to conduct it. Although they were developed more than 50 years ago, the vaccines in use today are effective enough to create a proper immune protection that can defend against an infection for decades, if the vaccination schedule is followed. The vast majority of measles outbreaks that have been reported in Europe over the last seven years have been caused by a lack of an immune response resulting from the unprecedented coverage of the population with vaccination. The measles outbreak observed in the adult and child population of Ukraine since December 2018 indicates the need and urgency of additional efforts to curb the spread and complete elimination of the measles virus. It has been determined that more than 95 % of the population should be vaccinated to ensure an elimination of measles virus and prevent the disease outbreaks after the virus has been imported from the countries that are still endemic to measles. It is noted that as a result of successful implementation of vaccination programs, the public's attention to measles is diminished even among physicians who sometimes have a rather dubious understanding of the disease symptoms. Ensuring a complete elimination of the measles virus requires the development and implementation of additional laboratory tests for immunity, development and realization of new, more polyvalent vaccines that are more readily accepted by population, increased awareness on safety and necessity of vaccination, as well as regulation. Key words: measles, immunity, elimination, epidemiological control, vaccination.


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