Risk Oriented Earthquake Hazard Assessment: Influence of Spatial Discretisation and Non-ergodic Ground-Motion Models
AbstractThree important aspects of ground-motion modelling for regional or portfolio risk analyses are discussed. The first issue is the treatment of discretisation of continuous ground-motion fields for generating spatially correlated discrete fields. Shortcomings of the present approach in which correlation models based upon point estimates of ground motions are used to represent correlations within and between spatial regions are highlighted. It is shown that risk results will be dependent upon the chosen spatial resolution if the effects of discretisation are not adequately treated. Two aspects of non-ergodic groundmotion modelling are then discussed. Correlation models generally used within risk modelling are traditionally based upon very simple partitioning of ground-motion residuals. As regional risk analyses move to non-ergodic applications where systematic site effects are considered, these correlation models (both inter-period and spatial models) need to be revised. The nature of these revisions are shown herein. Finally, evidence for significantly reduced between-event variability within earthquake sequences is presented. The ability to progressively constrain location and sequence-dependent systematic offsets from ergodic models as earthquake sequences develop can have significant implications for aftershock risk assessments.