Towards Understanding the Dynamics of COVID-19: An Approach Based on Polynomial Regression with Adaptive Sliding Windows

Airport of Rahadi Oesman in Kabupaten Ketapang Kalimantan Barat represent the main and important gate for air transport in Kabupaten Ketapang, where this airport own the strategic role in service activities of this transportation even for domestic transportation or regional. Activity in Airport of Rahadi Oesman in a few this the last year has growth so fast growth, so that felt the infrastructure and also available facility in this time have is not adequate again to support the growth rate of air traffic in this airport. In the plan development of facility of air side and also land side of the airport require to be conducted an analysis model of trip generation or attraction of passenger and goods. These models need for the prediction of mount the growth of passenger and goods/cargo and estimate the amount of passenger and aircraft movement in the future pursuant to aircraft characteristic that to be used. The models used for prediction of passenger and goods in this study are Trend Analysis Models consisted of linear regression trend method, exponential regression trend method, and polynomial regression trend method. Besides model of trend analysis, in this study also analyzed Market Share Model. Result from third model then compared to one another to obtain the most appropriate model. Pursuant to analyses result obtained that the best or most appropriate model is Model of Trend Analysis.Model for the attraction passenger is Y = 21,18X2+ 6181X + 5788 by R2= 0,922.Model for the generation passenger is Y = 128,3X2+ 7515X + 4965 by R2= 0,907.Model for the passenger of transit is Y = 795X2+ 561X + 3361 by R2= 1Model for the cargo movement is Y = 2468X2+ 41054X 28341 by R2= 0,918.

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Q-optimal experimental designs and close to them experimental designs for polynomial regression on the interval

Industrial laboratory Diagnostics of materials ◽

10.26896/1028-6861-2020-86-5-65-72 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 86 (5) ◽

pp. 65-72

Author(s):

Yu. D. Grigoriev

Keyword(s):

Optimal Design ◽

Polynomial Regression ◽

Direct Consequence ◽

Experimental Designs ◽

Optimal Designs ◽

Software Systems ◽

General Character ◽

Support Points ◽

Optimal Weights ◽

Universal Expression

The problem of constructing Q-optimal experimental designs for polynomial regression on the interval [–1, 1] is considered. It is shown that well-known Malyutov – Fedorov designs using D-optimal designs (so-called Legendre spectrum) are other than Q-optimal designs. This statement is a direct consequence of Shabados remark which disproved the Erdős hypothesis that the spectrum (support points) of saturated D-optimal designs for polynomial regression on a segment appeared to be support points of saturated Q-optimal designs. We present a saturated exact Q-optimal design for polynomial regression with s = 3 which proves the Shabados notion and then extend this statement to approximate designs. It is shown that when s = 3, 4 the Malyutov – Fedorov theorem on approximate Q-optimal design is also incorrect, though it still stands for s = 1, 2. The Malyutov – Fedorov designs with Legendre spectrum are considered from the standpoint of their proximity to Q-optimal designs. Case studies revealed that they are close enough for small degrees s of polynomial regression. A universal expression for Q-optimal distribution of the weights pi for support points xi for an arbitrary spectrum is derived. The expression is used to tabulate the distribution of weights for Malyutov – Fedorov designs at s = 3, ..., 6. The general character of the obtained expression is noted for Q-optimal weights with A-optimal weight distribution (Pukelsheim distribution) for the same problem statement. In conclusion a brief recommendation on the numerical construction of Q-optimal designs is given. It is noted that in this case in addition to conventional numerical methods some software systems of symbolic computations using methods of resultants and elimination theory can be successfully applied. The examples of Q-optimal designs considered in the paper are constructed using precisely these methods.

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Development and evaluation of trans-Amadi groundwater parameters: The integration of finite element techniques

10.31221/osf.io/fhvuq ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Chem Int

Keyword(s):

Finite Element ◽

Polynomial Regression ◽

Nitrate Concentration ◽

Strong Relationship ◽

Total Iron ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Port Harcourt ◽

Polynomial Expression ◽

The Relationship ◽

Best Fit

Mathematical model was developed and evaluated to monitor and predict the groundwater characteristics of Trans-amadi region in Port Harcourt City. In this research three major components were considered such as chloride, total iron and nitrate concentration as well as the polynomial expression on the behavious on the concentration of each component was determined in terms of the equation of the best fit as well as the square root of the curve. The relationship between nitrate and distance traveled by Nitrate concentration by the model is given as Pc = 0.003x2 - 0.451x + 14.91with coefficient of determination, R² = 0.947, Chloride given as Pc = 0.000x2 - 0.071x + 2.343, R² = 0.951while that of Total Iron is given as Pc = 2E-05x2 - 0.003x + 0.110, R² = 0.930. All these show a strong relationship as established by Polynomial Regression Model. The finite element techniques are found useful in monitoring, predicting and simulating groundwater characteristics of Trans-amadi as well as the prediction on the variation on the parameters of groundwater with variation in time.

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Anomaly Detection via Mining Numerical Workflow Relations from Logs

10.36227/techrxiv.12570926.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Bo Zhang ◽

Hongyu Zhang ◽

Pablo Moscato

Keyword(s):

Distributed Systems ◽

Anomaly Detection ◽

Text Messages ◽

Distributed File System ◽

Log Data ◽

Sliding Windows ◽

Novel Approach ◽

Hadoop Distributed File System ◽

Blue Gene ◽

Online Anomaly Detection

<div>Complex software intensive systems, especially distributed systems, generate logs for troubleshooting. The logs are text messages recording system events, which can help engineers determine the system's runtime status. This paper proposes a novel approach named ADR (stands for Anomaly Detection by workflow Relations) that employs matrix nullspace to mine numerical relations from log data. The mined relations can be used for both offline and online anomaly detection and facilitate fault diagnosis. We have evaluated ADR on log data collected from two distributed systems, HDFS (Hadoop Distributed File System) and BGL (IBM Blue Gene/L supercomputers system). ADR successfully mined 87 and 669 numerical relations from the logs and used them to detect anomalies with high precision and recall. For online anomaly detection, ADR employs PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) to find the optimal sliding windows' size and achieves fast anomaly detection.</div><div>The experimental results confirm that ADR is effective for both offline and online anomaly detection. </div>

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