Reliability-Based Bayesian Updating Using Visual Inspections of Existing Bridges

AbstractAmbiguity sensitive preferences must fail either Consequentialism or Dynamic Consistency (DC), two properties that are compatible with subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating, while forming the basis of backward induction and dynamic programming. We examine the connection between these properties in a general environment of convex preferences over monetary acts and find that, far from being incompatible, they are connected in an economically meaningful way. In single-agent decision problems, positive value of information characterises one direction of DC. We propose a weakening of DC and show that one direction is equivalent to weakly valuable information, whereas the other characterises the Bayesian updating of the subjective beliefs which are revealed by trading behavior.

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Analysis of the Safety Factors of Municipal Road Undercrossing Existing Bridge Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Methods

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board ◽

10.1177/03611981211031887 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 036119812110318

Author(s):

Yonghong Yang ◽

Yu Chen ◽

Zude Tang

Keyword(s):

Safety Assessment ◽

Evaluation Method ◽

Comprehensive Evaluation ◽

Safety Evaluation ◽

Safety Factors ◽

Analytic Hierarchy ◽

Road Engineering ◽

Existing Bridges ◽

Hierarchy Process ◽

Engineering Projects

Increasing traffic volume and insufficient road lanes often require municipal roads to be reconstructed and expanded. Where a road passes under a bridge, the reconstruction and expansion project will inevitably have an impact on the bridge. To evaluate the safety impact of road engineering projects on bridges, this paper evaluates the safety of the roads and ancillary facilities of highway bridges involved in municipal road engineering projects. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the safety factors of municipal roads undercrossing existing bridges, a fuzzy comprehensive analytic hierarchy process (AHP) evaluation method for the influence of road construction on the safety of existing bridges is proposed. First, AHP is used to select 11 evaluation factors. Second, the target layer, criterion layer, and index layer of evaluation factors are established, then a safety evaluation factor system is formed. The three-scale AHP model is used to determine the weight of assessment indexes. Third, through the fuzzy comprehensive AHP evaluation model, the fuzzy hierarchical comprehensive evaluation is carried out for the safety assessment index system. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to the engineering example of a municipal road undercrossing an existing expressway bridge. The comprehensive safety evaluation of the existing bridge reflects the practicability and feasibility of the method. It is expected that, with further development, the method will improve the decision-making process in bridge safety assessment systems.

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Three doors anomaly, “should I stay, or should I go”: an artefactual field experiment

Theory and Decision ◽

10.1007/s11238-021-09809-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Andrea Morone ◽

Rocco Caferra ◽

Alessia Casamassima ◽

Alessandro Cascavilla ◽

Paola Tiranzoni

Keyword(s):

Field Experiment ◽

Experimental Evidence ◽

Bayesian Updating ◽

Anomalous Behavior ◽

Status Quo ◽

Experimental Results ◽

Illusion Of Control ◽

Optimal Decision ◽

Status Quo Bias ◽

The Impact

AbstractThis work aims to identify and quantify the biases behind the anomalous behavior of people when they deal with the Three Doors dilemma, which is a really simple but counterintuitive game. Carrying out an artefactual field experiment and proposing eight different treatments to isolate the anomalies, we provide new interesting experimental evidence on the reasons why subjects fail to take the optimal decision. According to the experimental results, we are able to quantify the size and the impact of three main biases that explain the anomalous behavior of participants: Bayesian updating, illusion of control and status quo bias.

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Analysis study the used of Tuned Mass Damper (TMD) on an existing train bridge due to high speed train with moving mass load approach

MATEC Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/matecconf/201925805005 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 258 ◽

pp. 05005 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Wivia Octarena Nugroho ◽

Dina Rubiana Widarda ◽

Oryza Herdha Dwyana

Keyword(s):

High Speed ◽

Tuned Mass Damper ◽

Dynamic Responses ◽

Mass Ratio ◽

High Speed Train ◽

Maximum Deformation ◽

Mass Load ◽

Mass Damper ◽

Existing Bridges ◽

Comfort Criteria

As the need of the train speed increased, the existing bridges need to be evaluated, especially in dynamic responses, which are deformation and acceleration. In this study, Cisomang Bridge is modeled and analyzed due to the high-speed train SJ X2 in varying speeds, 50 km/h, 100 km/h, 150 km/h, and 200 km/h. The used of tuned mass damper also will be varied on its setting and placing. The tuned mass dampers setting be varied based on the first or second natural frequency and the placing of tuned mass damper be varied based on maximum deformation of the first or second mode. Moreover, the tuned mass damper ratio will be varied 1% and 1.6%. For all speed variations, dynamic responses of structure without TMD still fulfil the Indonesian Government Criterion based on PM 60 - 2012 but do not meet requirement of comfort criteria based on DIN-Fachbericht 101. Furthermore, only for the speed train 50km/h dynamic responses of structure fulfil safety criteria based on Eurocode EN 1990:2002, whereas the other speed variations do not meet that requirement. In the use of TMD 1% mass ratio, the structure fulfils the safety criteria for all speed variations. In the use of TMD 1.6% mass ratio, all the structure fulfils the safety and comfort criteria except 100 km/h speed which only fulfils the safety criteria.

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