An Indirect Deterministic Causal Sales Forecasting Model: Accuracy, Information, Conditional Efficiency, and Effectiveness

2014 ◽  
pp. 388-393
Author(s):  
Fred Hebein
Keyword(s):  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Model Accuracy ◽  
Conditional Efficiency ◽  
Efficiency And Effectiveness

Management Judgment Forecasts, Composite Forecasting Models, and Conditional Efficiency

1984 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark M. Moriarty ◽  
Arthur J. Adams
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Composite Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Conditional Efficiency ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Sales Forecasts ◽  
Different Sources

In an empirical study of sales forecasts, management judgment forecasts are compared with systematic forecasts (based on the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method). A composite sales forecasting model is developed which incorporates information from these different sources. In most cases forecast improvement apparently can be realized by combining multiple forecast inputs into a composite model. The concept of conditional efficiency then is introduced to evaluate the strength of an individual forecast input to the composite forecast. Upon finding the management judgment forecasts to be conditionally efficient on the basis of the composite model standard, the authors examine the management judgment forecasting task and environment in terms of the conditions which facilitate accurate management judgment predictions.

scholarly journals Forecasting Model for the Value of Areca Nut’s Export of Thailand

Webology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (Special Issue 04) ◽  
pp. 1241-1253
Author(s):  
Phanita Phakdi
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
International Market ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Areca Nut ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Efficiency And Effectiveness ◽  
Exponential Growth Model ◽  
Nut Production

Having accurate information about the agricultural situation is very important. The predicting trends of agricultural product will allow to make right decision in economy nowadays. The aims of the paper are to demonstrate the trend in areca nut export in Thailand and import in India to specific period and to plan our strategy and policies accordingly to promote areca nut production and export. With this meaning, a study on areca nut export in Thailand and import and production in India from 2013 to 2020 was conducted. The result found that Exponential Growth Model is the most effective for forecasting in the export and import volume of areca nut. The data also was illustrated the trends in 5 years from 2021- 2025. The result revealed that the forecasting trend of export volume of areca nut in Thailand for 2021 – 2025 is linearly decreasing from 3.47610MTs in 2020 to 0.450858MTs in 2025. While, the forecasting trend of import volume of areca nut in India for 2021 – 2025 is linear increasing gradually, from35.5783 MTs in 2020 to 37.2886 MTs in 2025. Areca nut should be considered as an economics crop significantly of Thailand in future for export of Thailand because there are needs in the international market and price still be reasonable. Driving and implementing sustainable agriculture should focus on efficiency and effectiveness truly.

k-Shape clustering algorithm for building energy usage patterns analysis and forecasting model accuracy improvement

2017 ◽  
Vol 146 ◽  
pp. 27-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junjing Yang ◽  
Chao Ning ◽  
Chirag Deb ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
David Cheong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Energy Usage ◽  
Model Accuracy ◽  
Accuracy Improvement ◽  
Usage Patterns ◽  
Shape Clustering

On Mechanisms of Realization of the Public Procurement of Construction Works (The Case of Road Const ruction)

2003 ◽  
pp. 68-80
Author(s):  
A. Dementiev ◽  
A. Zolotareva ◽  
A. Reus
Keyword(s):  
Public Procurement ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
International Experience ◽  
The Public ◽  
Government Purchases ◽  
Efficiency And Effectiveness ◽  
Construction Works ◽  
Budget Expenditure

The most important measures stimulating the increase of efficiency and effectiveness of budget expenditures on road construction are the improvement of pricing mechanisms and increasing efficiency of the procedures of government purchases of goods, works and services. The paper includes the analysis of main problems that arise in the process of government purchases and construction pricing with the reference to budget expenditure on road construction. It includes the review and analysis of international experience and possible measures of increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of government purchases and (road) construction pricing in Russia.

SISTEM OTOMASI PENYIRAMAN TANAMAN BERBASIS TELEGRAM

SIGMA TEKNIKA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irsyam
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Plant Growth ◽  
Water Intake ◽  
Smart Phone ◽  
Growth Failure ◽  
Automation System ◽  
Notification System ◽  
Efficiency And Effectiveness ◽  
Plant Automation

ABSTRAK           Faktor yang menentukan kegagalan pertumbuhan suatu tanaman hampir dipengaruhi oleh teknik atau cara penyiraman tanaman yang salah. Hal ini disebabkan oleh teknik penyiraman yang dilakukan secara manual sehingga tidak semua tanaman mendapatkan asupan air yang merata untuk menghidari tanaman menjadi layu. Faktor lain yang menyebabkan kegagalan pertumbuhan tanaman adalah kelembaban tanah.          Oleh karena itu, untuk mengurangi permasalahan tersebut dirancanglah “Sistem Otomasi Penyiraman Tanaman Berbasis Telegram”. Adapun sistem ini meliputi penyiraman tanaman secara otomatis berdasarkan kadar kelembaban tanah dengan sistem pemberitahuan atau notifikasi yang akan dikirimkan kepada petani dengan menggunakan aplikasi smart phone Telegram.          Sistem ini telah mampu mengontrol penyiraman sesuai dengan kondisi yang diinginkan. Dengan adanya sistem otomasi penyiraman tanaman berbasis telegram maka dapat meningkatkan efesiensi dan efektivitas petani sehingga kualitas tanaman dapat terjaga dengan baik.Kata kunci -- Penyiraman Tanaman, Penyiraman Secara Otomatis, Telegram.ABSTRACT                Factors that determine the failure of a plant's growth of almost are influenced by incorrect cropping techniques or methods. This is caused by the technique of watering is done manually so that not all plants get a uniform water intake to avoid crops withered. Another factor that causes plant growth failure is soil moisture.          Therefore, to reduce the problem was designed "Telegram Based Water Planting Automation System". The system includes automatic watering of plants based on moisture level of the soil with a notification or notification system that will be sent to farmers using Telegram smart phone applications.          This system has been able to control the watering according to the desired conditions. With the telegraph-based plant watering plant automation system can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of farmers so that the quality of the plant can be maintained properly. Keywords -- Watering Plants, Watering Automatically, Telegram.  

Using the “3Es” Method to Evaluate REDD+ Project in Nepal

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Doma Tshering Sherpa
Keyword(s):  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Benefit Distribution ◽  
Global Carbon Budget ◽  
Efficiency And Effectiveness ◽  
User Groups ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Community Forest User Groups ◽  
Global Carbon ◽  
Fundamental Requirement ◽  
Forest User

This case demonstrates the utility of the 3Es (effectiveness, efficiency, and equity) in examining Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) project in Nepal. REDD+ offers results-based payments for conserving and managing forests sustainably and enhancing forest carbon stocks. This will benefit communities’ efforts to conserve forest resources and prevent deforestation; conserving integrity of forests in turn benefits the global carbon budget. This case uses the 3Es to examine one case in Nepal of distributing the REDD+ funds among local participants. Of the 3Es, equity is getting attention worldwide but there is still debate on which principle of 3Es should be given priority to achieve overall effectiveness of REDD+. This case finds that equity is a fundamental requirement to achieve the other Es (efficiency and effectiveness) in REDD+ implementation. Further, I find that distributive equity is the most important and understood in three different ways in Nepal: rights, needs, and performance. There is an argument between communities and experts on which equity should be given priority. I recommend that the issue of needs based equity vs. performance-based equity should be solved by formation of guidelines of sharing benefits at two levels. First, the benefit distribution from international sources/markets to community forest user groups should be based on the ownership of carbon and performance of communities participating in REDD+. Second, at community level, communities should decide on the form of benefit distribution according to their needs. The primacy of equity in this case will likely find international echoes in other environmental policies and in other countries.

Support System for Trading in Exchange Market by Distributional Forecasting Model

Informatica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-90
Author(s):  
Algirdas MAKNICKAS ◽  
Nijole MAKNICKIENE
Keyword(s):  
Support System ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Exchange Market

Adaptive Forecasting Model Of The Number Of Marriages In Samara Region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. V. Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Forecasting Model

Estimation of the topographic correction accuracy for satellite data on mountain regions in relation to the digital elevation model accuracy

2005 ◽  
Vol 11 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 70-74
Author(s):  
V.I. Lyalko ◽  
◽  
O.I. Sakhatsky ◽  
Z.M. Shportjuk ◽  
O.N. Sibirtseva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Digital Elevation Model ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Mountain Regions ◽  
Model Accuracy ◽  
Topographic Correction ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Elevation Model
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