Business Cycle of International Tourism Demand in Thailand: A Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model

2015 ◽  
pp. 415-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woraphon Yamaka ◽  
Pathairat Pastpipatkul ◽  
Songsak Sriboonchitta
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF JAPANESE TOURIST DEMAND TO BALI USING CO-INTEGRATION TEST AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 151
Author(s):  
Ni Luh Putu Suciptawati ◽  
M Sianipar
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Integration Test

This study was aimed to figure out of the long term and short term correlation between -tourism price and tourist income to the tourism demand of Japanese to Bali. Quarterly data from 2003-2016 were analyzed by cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result showed that there were both long term and short term balance among research variables. At long term, the tourist income has a positive influence on tourism demand and on the other hand the tourism price has a negative one. Meanwhile at the short term the tourist income has a negative influence on the tourism demand.

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