Information Asymmetry Among Investors and Strategic Bidding in Peer-to-Peer Lending

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending became a global phenomenon in recent years. Despite their prominence in the “FinTech” era, P2P platforms remain a risky investment because of the high default rate of unsecured personal loans funded on such platforms. In contrast, the rate of return can be much higher than that of other investments if P2P loans are repaid. Therefore, investors of P2P loans need information about borrowers’ ability to repay. An important channel is to learn from other investors who may have information advantages. We argue that, because collective effort from investors is required in P2P lending, it could be optimal for informed investors to bid early in projects with the purpose of signaling the quality. With a unique data set from Prosper.com, we find that informed investors are indeed more likely to bid in the early stage of a project with a low probability of being funded, whereas uninformed investors will follow. The “squatting” behavior (early bidding) of informed investors facilitates information spillover to uninformed investors, benefitting the investors and borrowers who otherwise may not raise sufficient funding. Our findings also have implications for P2P lending platforms on how to manage the information asymmetry and strategic behaviors of investors.

The Practice of Imposing Default Rate in Islamic Home Financing Product in Malaysia: Analysis from Regulatory and Shariah Perspective

In developing and structuring an Islamic banking product, one of the areas that should be addressed is to mitigate risk that includes default risk. Financial institutions will always be exposed to the risk of default by customers. This is faced by Islamic banks as well when granting financing facilities to customers irrespective of the underlying Shariah contracts that apply to the product structure. In order to mitigate such risk, bank normally will impose late payment charges if the instalment amount is not received by the payment due date. In addition to the normal late payment charges, banks may also impose default rate on customers who have defaulted within certain period. As such, this study analysed the practice of charging default rate in Islamic home financing product involving sale- and lease-based contracts. This qualitative study adopted the explanatory methodology as the main method of data collection from relevant documents, such as Shariah-related regulatory policies, Shariah resolution issued by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), decided court cases, and Islamic bank product documentation related to the practice of charging default rate. Next, secondary data from journal articles and other published sources, including Shariah literature relevant to this study, were deployed to analyse the said issue. Evidently, several Islamic banks in Malaysia seem to impose default rate in their product structure. Such practice may not be consistent with the spirit of Shariah and Islamic finance if the purpose is to gain more income while the customers face financial issues. This study prescribes Shariah scholars and regulator to re-evaluate the current regulatory policies and product structure to ensure that they embrace the spirit of Shariah, apart from protecting consumers from heightened financial burden.

Penyelesaian Pinjaman Bermasalah dalam Perusahaan Teknologi Finansial di Indonesia

The development of financial technology services has experienced extraordinary growth and can alter as source of fund for the community, especially start-up business or small scale entrepreneur. This development has also followed by negative aspect, namely the growth in the percentage of bad credit or the default rate of loan repayments of more than 90 days (TWP90). This is exacerbated by the absence of a sufficient regulation regarding the settlement of non-performing loans or defaults where this will cause high risk for fin-tech operators and financiers (investors). In fin-tech services, there are 3 legal relationships arise: 1) namely between loan recipients and loan service providers; 2) between service providers and lenders, and 3) between loan recipients and lenders. In addition, the validity of electronic agreements made in fin-tech services does not in conflict with the norms according to article 1320 BW concerning validity of agreement. Legal action that can be taken by fin-tech operators and investors are through litigation or non-litigation procedure respectively mediation, adjudication and arbitration.Keywords: Financial Technology; Fintech; Loans; Debt;Litigation; Non-Litigation.Abstrak Perkembangan layanan teknologi finansial atau yang lebih dikenal dengan financial technology di Indonesia telah mengalami pertumbuhan yang luar biasa dan bisa menjadi alternatif pembiayaan bagi masyarakat khususnya UMKM. Perkembangan ini juga dibarengi aspek negatif yaitu mulai tumbuhnya presentase kredit macet atau tingkat wanprestasi pengembalian pinjaman lebih dari 90 hari (TWP90). Hal ini diperparah belum adanya payung hukum dari regulator terkait penyelesaian pinjaman bermasalah atau gagal bayar dimana hal ini akan menyebabkan resiko yang tinggi bagi penyelenggara tekfin dan pemberi dana (investor). Dalam layanan tekfin terdapat 3 hubungan hukum yang timbul yaitu antara penerima pinjaman dengan penyelenggara layanan pinjaman, antara penyelenggara layanan dengan pemberi pinjaman, dan antara penerima pinjaman dengan pemberi pinjaman. Selain itu keabsahan perjanjian elektronik yang dibuat dalam layanan tekfin tidak bertentangan dengan syarat sah perjanjian menurut pasal 1320 BW. Upaya hukum yang bisa dilakukan oleh penyelenggara tekfin dan investor adalah melalui jalur litigasi atau non litigasi yaitu mediasi, ajudikasi dan arbitrase.Kata Kunci:Tekfin; Pinjaman Bermasalah; Gagal Bayar; Ligitasi; Non Ligitasi.

Credit and Financial Risk Measurement of Financial Enterprises Based on PSM Model

With the rapid development of social economy and information technology, the credit risk and financial risk of my country’s financial enterprises are also facing severe challenges. In financial enterprises, credit is related to the survival of the enterprise. As the business volume and scale of financial enterprises continue to expand, financial risks are correspondingly increased. Therefore, the research on financial enterprise credit and financial risks is of great significance. The research on the credit and financial risks of financial enterprises is helpful to help financial enterprises handle financial risks well and perform evasive operations on them. In addition, it can also enhance the credit awareness of enterprises and reduce the default rate in the financial industry. This paper studies and analyzes the financial enterprise credit and financial risk measurement based on the PSM model. First, it uses the literature method to study the PSM model, corporate credit, financial risk and other theoretical knowledge, and then establish a fuzzy neural network model for risk assessment. And the establishment of a PSM model to conduct a questionnaire survey experiment design, analyze the price sensitivity changes and acceptable price ranges under the PSM model, and get the optimal pricing of new financial products issued by financial companies. Finally, it analyzes the relationship between the default rate of corporate credit and internal finance. The conclusion is that when this financial product is priced at 45 yuan, the proportion of reserved recipients is the largest, reaching 66%; when the price is 75 yuan, the acceptable proportion is 23%, which is the acceptable number of people in the three price ranges. The proportion is the largest; if the price is 100 yuan, the unacceptable proportion is the largest, reaching 45%. This shows that the pricing of a new financial product is directly related to its sales. The reasonableness of the product pricing directly determines whether people are willing to pay for it and accept it.

Exploring the sources of loan default clustering using survival analysis with frailty

This paper investigates whether three microeconomic loan characteristics are sources of loan default clustering in the Mexican banking sector by employing survival analysis with frailty. Using a large sample of bank loan level data granted to micro, small and medium sized firms from January 2010 to 2018, we test whether classifying loans by the bank's systemic importance, industry or at individual firm level enhances the predictions of loans defaults. Our results show that loans granted by Domestic Systemically Important Banks contribute to the default clustering in micro and small firm loans. This is due to aggregate default rate levels and clusters that are large for these firms loans compared with loans provided to medium-sized firms. These findings have important implications for bank's expected loss management related to the correlated loan default risk

Goodness-of-Fit of Logistic Regression of the Default Rate on GDP Growth Rate and on CDX Indices

Under the Basel II and Basel III agreements, the probability of default (PD) is a key parameter used in calculating expected credit loss (ECL), which is typically defined as: PD × Loss Given Default × Exposure at Default. In practice or in regulatory requirements, gross domestic product (GDP) has been adopted in the PD estimation model. Due to the problem of excessive fluctuation and highly volatile ECL estimation, models that produce satisfactory PD and thus ECL estimations in the context of existing risk management techniques are lacking. In this study, we explore the usage of the credit default swap index (CDX), a market’s expectation of future PD, as a predictor of the default rate (DR). By comparing the goodness-of-fit of logistic regression, several conclusions are drawn. Firstly, in general, GDP has considerable explanatory power for the default rate which is consistent with current models in practice. Secondly, although both GDP and CDX fit the DR well for rating B class, CDX has a significantly better fit of DR for ratings [A, Baa, Ba]. Thirdly, compared with low-rated companies, the relationship between the DR and GDP is relatively weak for rating A. This phenomenon implies that, in addition to using macroeconomic variables and firm-specific explanatory variables in the PD estimation model, high-rated companies exhibit a greater need to use market supplemental information, such as CDX, to capture the changes in the DR.

The use of migration matrices to test the sustainability of the top ranked restaurants: a methodological note

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a new methodology to estimate the migration of grades of top rated restaurant and the default rate over time. Design/methodology/approach To demonstrate how to develop migration matrices the empirical results are based on the real number of top-rated French restaurants in Gault-Millau in a specific year and how they migrate from one grade to another over the period 1974–2010. Findings The purpose of the empirical analysis is only to illustrate the methodology. It is shown that migration rates are relatively stable over time. Research limitations/implications Results are presented only to illustrate the methodology. Further analysis could provide a sound basis to compare the rating systems from one guide to another. Originality/value This research note explores the notion of migration rate by developing an alternative way of measuring how restaurants survive over time.

Calibrating the CreditRisk+ Model at Different Time Scales and in Presence of Temporal Autocorrelation †

The CreditRisk+ model is one of the industry standards for the valuation of default risk in credit loans portfolios. The calibration of CreditRisk+ requires, inter alia, the specification of the parameters describing the structure of dependence among default events. This work addresses the calibration of these parameters. In particular, we study the dependence of the calibration procedure on the sampling period of the default rate time series, that might be different from the time horizon onto which the model is used for forecasting, as it is often the case in real life applications. The case of autocorrelated time series and the role of the statistical error as a function of the time series period are also discussed. The findings of the proposed calibration technique are illustrated with the support of an application to real data.

Treatment Adherence Status of the TB Patients Notified from Private Sector and its Associated Factors: Findings of a Secondary Data Analysis from West Bengal, India

Objective: In India, yearly, estimated one million TB cases are missing from notification, mostly from private sector. The large number of patients in private sector has raised concerns for suboptimal quality of care. This study was conducted to find out the treatment adherence status among the private TB patients and factors associated with poor adherence.Data Source: Secondary project data, obtained through adherence monitoring house visit by NGO workers. Data collected by reviewing different records available with the patients & data was entered into the CommCare HQ, an open-source mobile platform designed for data collection.Methods: Descriptive observational study.Results: Default rate among private patients was 5%. Commonest reasons stated for being a defaulter were ‘Medicine is not good’ (30%), ‘Travel’ (28.6%), ‘Cost of treatment’ (21.8%) and ‘Side effects’ (11.6%). Despite best of efforts only 36.9% defaulter could be retrieved. Higher default rate was associated with 15-59 years age, males, earning member of the family, addiction, DR-TB, continuation phase of treatment, previous history of TB, presence of symptoms and inability to walk.Conclusion: Privately treated TB patients are vulnerable to non-adherence. Once defaulted, it is difficult to retrieve them. Economically productive age group is at higher risk of being defaulter. Strict adherence monitoring for private TB patients and extensive advocacy communication & social mobilization program in the community, workplaces and institutions is a need of hour.

Modelling Economic Crises In Hua He Framework

In our paper we model firms’ liquidity using the Hua He methodology. We investigate how cooperation of firms improve the possibilites of liquidity management. During a crisis, various effects identified in the literature hurt firms’ liquidity position and lead to increased bankruptcy risk. We may counterbalance these adverse effects by providing immediate cash transfers and granting periodic cash flow transfers or additional credit lines. Cooperating with peers pays off. The importance of liquidity transfer between agents is higher during a crisis than in normal economic environment. It contributes to a lower default rate the losses are more moderate as well. Several consequences can be drawn for policy makers how ameliorate resilience of agents.