Prediction of Relativistic Electrons Flux in the Outer Radiation Belt of the Earth Using Adaptive Methods

The ways are studied to improve the quality of prediction of the time series of hourly mean fluxes and daily total fluxes (fluences) of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt of the Earth 1 to 24 hours ahead and 1 to 4 days ahead, respectively. The prediction uses an approximation approach based on various machine learning methods, namely, artificial neural networks (ANNs), decision tree (random forest), and gradient boosting. A comparison of the skill scores of short-range forecasts with the lead time of 1 to 24 hours showed that the best results were demonstrated by ANNs. For medium-range forecasting, the accuracy of prediction of the fluences of relativistic electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt three to four days ahead increases significantly when the predicted values of the solar wind velocity near the Earth obtained from the UV images of the Sun of the AIA (Atmospheric Imaging Assembly) instrument of the SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) are included to the list of the input parameters.

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Neural Network Prediction of Daily Relativistic Electrons Fluence in the Outer Radiation Belt of the Earth: Selection of Delay Embedding Method ⁎ ⁎This study has been conducted at the expense of Russian Science Foundation, grant no. 16-17-00098.

Procedia Computer Science ◽

10.1016/j.procs.2018.01.014 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 123 ◽

pp. 86-91

Author(s):

Roman Batusov ◽

Sergey Dolenko ◽

Irina Myagkova

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Radiation Belt ◽

Relativistic Electrons ◽

Russian Science ◽

Outer Radiation Belt ◽

Embedding Method ◽

The Earth ◽

Neural Network Prediction ◽

Network Prediction ◽

Selection Of

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Dynamics of the Relativistic Electrons Flux of the Earth Outer Radiation Belt Based on the MKL Instrument Data

Astrophysics and Space Science Library - The Coronas-F Space Mission ◽

10.1007/978-3-642-39268-9_11 ◽

2013 ◽

pp. 327-336

Author(s):

S. N. Kuznetsov ◽

I. N. Myagkova ◽

E. A. Muravieva ◽

B. Yu. Yushkov ◽

L. I. Starostin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Radiation Belt ◽

Relativistic Electrons ◽

Outer Radiation Belt ◽

The Earth

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Horizon of Neural Network Prediction of Relativistic Electrons Flux in the Outer Radiation Belt of the Earth

Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Engineering Applications of Neural Networks (INNS) - EANN '15 ◽

10.1145/2797143.2797169 ◽

2015 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Irina Myagkova ◽

Sergey Dolenko ◽

Vladimir Shiroky ◽

Natalia Sentemova ◽

Igor Persiantsev

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Radiation Belt ◽

Relativistic Electrons ◽

Outer Radiation Belt ◽

The Earth ◽

Neural Network Prediction ◽

Network Prediction

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Radial diffusion coefficients database in the frame of SafeSpace project

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10563 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christos Katsavrias ◽

Ioannis A. Daglis ◽

Afroditi Nasi ◽

Constantinos Papadimitriou ◽

Marina Georgiou

Keyword(s):

Diffusion Coefficients ◽

Radiation Belt ◽

Field Measurements ◽

Radial Diffusion ◽

Relativistic Electrons ◽

Outer Radiation Belt ◽

Horizon 2020 ◽

Research And Innovation ◽

The Difference ◽

Cycle 24

Radial diffusion has been established as one of the most important mechanisms contributing the acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Over the past few years efforts have been devoted to provide empirical relationships of radial diffusion coefficients (DLL) for radiation belt simulations yet several studies have suggested that the difference between the various models can be orders of magnitude different at high levels of geomagnetic activity as the observed DLL have been shown to be highly event-specific. In the frame of SafeSpace project we have used 12 years (2009 &#8211; 2020) of multi-point magnetic and electric field measurements from THEMIS A, D and E satellites to create a database of calculated DLL. In this work we present the first statistics on the evolution of DLL during the various phases of Solar cycle 24 with respect to the various solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices.This work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme &#8220;SafeSpace&#8221; under grant agreement No 870437.

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On the effect of ULF waves on the outer radiation belt during geomagnetic storms

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5977 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christopher Lara ◽

Pablo S. Moya ◽

Victor Pinto ◽

Javier Silva ◽

Beatriz Zenteno

Keyword(s):

Relativistic Electron ◽

Radiation Belt ◽

Geomagnetic Storms ◽

Cumulative Effect ◽

Radiation Belts ◽

Ulf Waves ◽

Relativistic Electrons ◽

Relative Role ◽

Outer Radiation Belt ◽

Ulf Wave

The inner magnetosphere is a very important region to study, as with satellite-based communications increasing day after day, possible disruptions are especially relevant due to the possible consequences in our daily life. It is becoming very important to know how the radiation belts behave, especially during strong geomagnetic activity. The radiation belts response to geomagnetic storms and solar wind conditions is still not fully understood, as relativistic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt can be depleted, enhanced or not affected following intense activity. Different studies show how these results vary in the face of different events. As one of the main mechanisms affecting the dynamics of the radiation belt are wave-particle interactions between relativistic electrons and ULF waves. In this work we perform a statistical study of the relationship between ULF wave power and relativistic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt during several geomagnetic storms, by using magnetic field and particle fluxes data measured by the Van Allen Probes between 2012 and 2017. We evaluate the correlation between the changes in flux and the cumulative effect of ULF wave activity during the main and recovery phases of the storms for different position in the outer radiation belt and energy channels. Our results show that there is a good correlation between the presence of ULF waves and the changes in flux during the recovery phase of the storm and that correlations vary as a function of energy. Also, we can see in detail how the ULF power change for the electron flux at different L-shell We expect these results to be relevant for the understanding of the relative role of ULF waves in the enhancements and depletions of energetic electrons in the radiation belts for condition described.

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