Effect of Simultaneous Time Series Prediction with Various Horizons on Prediction Quality at the Example of Electron Flux in the Outer Radiation Belt of the Earth

2016 ◽  
pp. 317-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Myagkova ◽  
Vladimir Shiroky ◽  
Sergey Dolenko
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Radiation Belt ◽  
Electron Flux ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Outer Radiation Belt ◽  
Prediction Quality ◽  
The Earth

scholarly journals Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Artem Smirnov ◽  
Max Berrendorf ◽  
Yuri Shprits ◽  
Elena A. Kronberg ◽  
Hayley J Allison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Radiation Belt ◽  
Electron Flux ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Energy Electron ◽  
Medium Energy ◽  
Outer Radiation Belt ◽  
Machine Learning Model

OUTER RADIATION BELT OF THE EARTH AT 320 KM ALTITUDE

AIAA Journal ◽  
1963 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 516-519
Author(s):  
S. N. VERNOV ◽  
I. A. SAVENKO ◽  
P. I. SHAVRIN ◽  
V. I. NESTEROV ◽  
N. F. PISARENKO
Keyword(s):  
Radiation Belt ◽  
Outer Radiation Belt ◽  
The Earth

Short- and Medium-range Prediction of Relativistic Electron Flux in the Earth’s Outer Radiation Belt by Machine Learning Methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 47-57
Author(s):  
I. N. Myagkova ◽  
◽  
V. R. Shirokii ◽  
Yu. S. Shugai ◽  
O. G. Barinov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Radiation Belt ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Relativistic Electrons ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Outer Radiation Belt ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Medium Range

The ways are studied to improve the quality of prediction of the time series of hourly mean fluxes and daily total fluxes (fluences) of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt of the Earth 1 to 24 hours ahead and 1 to 4 days ahead, respectively. The prediction uses an approximation approach based on various machine learning methods, namely, artificial neural networks (ANNs), decision tree (random forest), and gradient boosting. A comparison of the skill scores of short-range forecasts with the lead time of 1 to 24 hours showed that the best results were demonstrated by ANNs. For medium-range forecasting, the accuracy of prediction of the fluences of relativistic electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt three to four days ahead increases significantly when the predicted values of the solar wind velocity near the Earth obtained from the UV images of the Sun of the AIA (Atmospheric Imaging Assembly) instrument of the SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) are included to the list of the input parameters.

The dynamics of the inner boundary of the outer radiation belt during geomagnetic storms

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofei Shi ◽  
Jie Ren ◽  
Qiugang Zong
Keyword(s):  
Radiation Belt ◽  
Electron Flux ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Minimum Energy ◽  
Onset Time ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
Outer Radiation Belt ◽  
H Index ◽  
Late Recovery ◽  
Energy Dependent

<p>We present a statistical study of energy-dependent and L shell-dependent inner boundary of the outer radiation belt during 37 isolated geomagnetic storms using observations from Van Allen Probes from 2013 to 2017. There are mutual transformations between "V-shaped" and "S-shaped" inner boundaries during different storm phases, resulting from the competition among electron loss, radial transport and local acceleration. The radial position, onset time, E<sub>st</sub> (the minimum energy at L<sub>st</sub> where the inner boundary starts to exhibit an S-shaped form), and the radial width of S-shaped boundary (ΔL) are quantitatively defined according to the formation of a reversed energy spectrum (electron flux going up with increasing energies from hundreds of keV to ~1 MeV) from a kappa-like spectrum (electron flux steeply falling with increasing energies). The case and statistical results present that (1) The inner boundary has repeatable features associated with storms: the inner boundary is transformed from S-shaped to V-shaped form in several hours during the storm commencement and main phase, and retains in the V-shaped form for several days until it evolves into S-shaped during late recovery phase; (2) ΔL shows positive correlation with SYM-H index; (3) The duration of the V-shaped form is positively correlated with the storm intensity and the duration of the recovery phase; (4) The minimum energy E<sub>st</sub> are mainly distributed in the range of 100-550 keV. All these findings have important implications for understanding the dynamics of energetic electrons in the slot region and the outer radiation belt during geomagnetic storms.</p>

scholarly journals THE RESEARCH INTO THE PROBLEM OF STATISTICALLY INDETERMINATE TIME SERIES PREDICTION

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (48) ◽  
pp. 34-38
Author(s):  
V. M. Galai
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Quality Requirements ◽  
Identification Methods ◽  
Prediction Task ◽  
Prediction Quality ◽  
External Prediction

In the article under consideration the appropriateness of prediction task optimizing according to related external prediction quality requirements based on the multitude of elements expanded by identification methods is proved by 15 mathematical models of time series and 4 methods of their identification.

Dynamics of the Relativistic Electrons Flux of the Earth Outer Radiation Belt Based on the MKL Instrument Data

2013 ◽  
pp. 327-336
Author(s):  
S. N. Kuznetsov ◽  
I. N. Myagkova ◽  
E. A. Muravieva ◽  
B. Yu. Yushkov ◽  
L. I. Starostin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiation Belt ◽  
Relativistic Electrons ◽  
Outer Radiation Belt ◽  
The Earth
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