Expert System with Extended Knowledge Acquisition Module for Decision Making Support

Author(s):  
Alexander Tselykh ◽  
Larisa Tselykh ◽  
Vladislav Vasilev ◽  
Simon Barkovskii
2001 ◽  
Vol 49 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 391-403
Author(s):  
Marko Andrejic ◽  
Andreja Andric ◽  
Nikola Stojanovic

1989 ◽  
Vol 33 (17) ◽  
pp. 1159-1159
Author(s):  
Terre L. Layton ◽  
Newton C. Ellis ◽  
R. Dale Huchingson

A rapid growth of expert system development in various fields of study will likely occur in this decade. Two prerequisites are needed in order for this to happen: strong social need and technical feasibility. Given that both factors presently exist, a few areas where expert systems can help significantly include: (1) providing an interactively accessible source of updated and well-organized knowledge, and (2) assisting a user in decision making. The current research reviews areas of Artificial Intelligence that relate to the process of knowledge acquisition for expert systems. Until very recently, the primary technique for knowledge acquisition has been the time-consuming process of interviews. Typical techniques include: structured and unstructured interviews, questionnaires, and verbal reporting which incorporates protocol analysis. The functions involved in one or more of the techniques encompass extraction of meaning, data inference, and rule induction coupled with retrospective comment analysis, and behavioral observations. The purpose of the current research is to explore different avenues for data acquisition when dealing with multiple knowledge sources with the objective to develop an automated technique for knowledge acquisition. The Delphi Technique is the primary technique investigated in this study, and the result is the Delphi Manager algorithm which is based on the original version of the Delphi Exercise modified to benefit the expert system development process. Other users of the algorithm include: (1) model verification and validation, (2) forecasting, and (3) opinion polls for policy decision making. Although there are additional uses, the Delphi Manager is primarily formulated for the expert system development process. The Delphi Manager was validated by using an existing knowledge base (KB) that was compiled by a paper and pencil version of the Delphi Technique. This existing KB was part of a dissertation by Randall F. Scott entitled “A Computer Programmer Productivity Prediction Model.” The Delphi Manager has the potential to reduce significantly the time needed to collect and analyze new data. In addition, its user-friendly interface reduces the need for an advanced computer user either to build a questionnaire or to install a help facility. The program provides context sensitive help which is input by the developer through a series of templates. The Delphi Manager is also flexible enough to accommodate anyone from a novice to an advanced programmer. Improvements are suggested that are designed to provide additional program functionality and applications.


1995 ◽  
Vol 1995 (178) ◽  
pp. 699-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuniji Kose ◽  
Yasushi Ishioka ◽  
Chunsheng Yang ◽  
Yoshio Kato

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 4640
Author(s):  
Seung-Yeoun Choi ◽  
Sean-Hay Kim

New functions and requirements of high performance building (HPB) being added and several regulations and certification conditions being reinforced steadily make it harder for designers to decide HPB designs alone. Although many designers wish to rely on HPB consultants for advice, not all projects can afford consultants. We expect that, in the near future, computer aids such as design expert systems can help designers by providing the role of HPB consultants. The effectiveness and success or failure of the solution offered by the expert system must be affected by the quality, systemic structure, resilience, and applicability of expert knowledge. This study aims to set the problem definition and category required for existing HPB designs, and to find the knowledge acquisition and representation methods that are the most suitable to the design expert system based on the literature review. The HPB design literature from the past 10 years revealed that the greatest features of knowledge acquisition and representation are the increasing proportion of computer-based data analytics using machine learning algorithms, whereas rules, frames, and cognitive maps that are derived from heuristics are conventional representation formalisms of traditional expert systems. Moreover, data analytics are applied to not only literally raw data from observations and measurement, but also discrete processed data as the results of simulations or composite rules in order to derive latent rule, hidden pattern, and trends. Furthermore, there is a clear trend that designers prefer the method that decision support tools propose a solution directly as optimizer does. This is due to the lack of resources and time for designers to execute performance evaluation and analysis of alternatives by themselves, even if they have sufficient experience on the HPB. However, because the risk and responsibility for the final design should be taken by designers solely, they are afraid of convenient black box decision making provided by machines. If the process of using the primary knowledge in which frame to reach the solution and how the solution is derived are transparently open to the designers, the solution made by the design expert system will be able to obtain more trust from designers. This transparent decision support process would comply with the requirement specified in a recent design study that designers prefer flexible design environments that give more creative control and freedom over design options, when compared to an automated optimization approach.


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