The Time of Ruin in the Classical Poisson Risk Model

Author(s):  
Gordon E. Willmot ◽  
Jae-Kyung Woo
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C.M. Dickson ◽  
Marjan Qazvini

AbstractChen et al. (2014), studied a discrete semi-Markov risk model that covers existing risk models such as the compound binomial model and the compound Markov binomial model. We consider their model and build numerical algorithms that provide approximations to the probability of ultimate ruin and the probability and severity of ruin in a continuous time two-state Markov-modulated risk model. We then study the finite time ruin probability for a discrete m-state model and show how we can approximate the density of the time of ruin in a continuous time Markov-modulated model with more than two states.


2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugenio V. Rodríguez-Martínez ◽  
Rui M. R. Cardoso ◽  
Alfredo D. Egídio dos Reis

AbstractThe dual risk model assumes that the surplus of a company decreases at a constant rate over time and grows by means of upward jumps, which occur at random times and sizes. It is said to have applications to companies with economical activities involved in research and development. This model is dual to the well-known Cramér-Lundberg risk model with applications to insurance. Most existing results on the study of the dual model assume that the random waiting times between consecutive gains follow an exponential distribution, as in the classical Cramér-Lundberg risk model. We generalize to other compound renewal risk models where such waiting times are Erlang(n) distributed. Using the roots of the fundamental and the generalized Lundberg's equations, we get expressions for the ruin probability and the Laplace transform of the time of ruin for an arbitrary single gain distribution. Furthermore, we compute expected discounted dividends, as well as higher moments, when the individual common gains follow a Phase-Type, PH(m), distribution. We also perform illustrations working some examples for some particular gain distributions and obtain numerical results.


2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (02) ◽  
pp. 399-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric C.K. Cheung ◽  
Steve Drekic

In the classical compound Poisson risk model, it is assumed that a company (typically an insurance company) receives premium at a constant rate and pays incurred claims until ruin occurs. In contrast, for certain companies (typically those focusing on invention), it might be more appropriate to assume expenses are paid at a fixed rate and occasional random income is earned. In such cases, the surplus process of the company can be modelled as a dual of the classical compound Poisson model, as described in Avanzi et al. (2007). Assuming further that a barrier strategy is applied to such a model (i.e., any overshoot beyond a fixed level caused by an upward jump is paid out as a dividend until ruin occurs), we are able to derive integro-differential equations for the moments of the total discounted dividends as well as the Laplace transform of the time of ruin. These integro-differential equations can be solved explicitly assuming the jump size distribution has a rational Laplace transform. We also propose a discrete-time analogue of the continuous-time dual model and show that the corresponding quantities can be solved for explicitly leaving the discrete jump size distribution arbitrary. While the discrete-time model can be considered as a stand-alone model, it can also serve as an approximation to the continuous-time model. Finally, we consider a generalization of the so-called Dickson-Waters modification in optimal dividends problems by maximizing the difference between the expected value of discounted dividends and the present value of a fixed penalty applied at the time of ruin.


Risks ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sooie-Hoe Loke ◽  
Enrique Thomann

In this paper, a dual risk model under constant force of interest is considered. The ruin probability in this model is shown to satisfy an integro-differential equation, which can then be written as an integral equation. Using the collocation method, the ruin probability can be well approximated for any gain distributions. Examples involving exponential, uniform, Pareto and discrete gains are considered. Finally, the same numerical method is applied to the Laplace transform of the time of ruin.


2002 ◽  
Vol 39 (02) ◽  
pp. 324-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon E. Willmot

An explicit convolution representation for the equilibrium residual lifetime distribution of compound zero-modified geometric distributions is derived. Second-order reliability properties are seen to be essentially preserved under geometric compounding, and complement results of Brown (1990) and Cai and Kalashnikov (2000). The convolution representation is then extended to thenth-order equilibrium distribution. This higher-order convolution representation is used to evaluate the stop-loss premium and higher stop-loss moments of the compound zero-modified geometric distribution, as well as the Laplace transform of thekth moment of the time of ruin in the classical risk model.


2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 399-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric C.K. Cheung ◽  
Steve Drekic

In the classical compound Poisson risk model, it is assumed that a company (typically an insurance company) receives premium at a constant rate and pays incurred claims until ruin occurs. In contrast, for certain companies (typically those focusing on invention), it might be more appropriate to assume expenses are paid at a fixed rate and occasional random income is earned. In such cases, the surplus process of the company can be modelled as a dual of the classical compound Poisson model, as described in Avanzi et al. (2007). Assuming further that a barrier strategy is applied to such a model (i.e., any overshoot beyond a fixed level caused by an upward jump is paid out as a dividend until ruin occurs), we are able to derive integro-differential equations for the moments of the total discounted dividends as well as the Laplace transform of the time of ruin. These integro-differential equations can be solved explicitly assuming the jump size distribution has a rational Laplace transform. We also propose a discrete-time analogue of the continuous-time dual model and show that the corresponding quantities can be solved for explicitly leaving the discrete jump size distribution arbitrary. While the discrete-time model can be considered as a stand-alone model, it can also serve as an approximation to the continuous-time model. Finally, we consider a generalization of the so-called Dickson-Waters modification in optimal dividends problems by maximizing the difference between the expected value of discounted dividends and the present value of a fixed penalty applied at the time of ruin.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 308-319
Author(s):  
David C. M. Dickson

AbstractIn this study, we show how expressions for the probability of ultimate ruin can be obtained from the probability function of the time of ruin in a particular compound binomial risk model, and from the density of the time of ruin in a particular Sparre Andersen risk model. In each case evaluation of generalised binomial series is required, and the argument of each series has a common form. We evaluate these series by creating an identity based on the generalised negative binomial distribution. We also show how the same ideas apply to the probability function of the number of claims in a particular Sparre Andersen model.


2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (02) ◽  
pp. 293-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Attahiru Sule Alfa ◽  
Steve Drekic

In this paper, we show that the delayed Sparre Andersen insurance risk model in discrete time can be analyzed as a doubly infinite Markov chain. We then describe how matrix analytic methods can be used to establish a computational procedure for calculating the probability distributions associated with fundamental ruin-related quantities of interest, such as the time of ruin, the surplus immediately prior to ruin, and the deficit at ruin. Special cases of the model, namely the ordinary and stationary Sparre Andersen models, are considered in several numerical examples.


2007 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 385-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan M Pitts ◽  
Konstadinos Politis

In the classical risk model with initial capital u, let τ(u) be the time of ruin, X+(u) be the risk reserve just before ruin, and Y+(u) be the deficit at ruin. Gerber and Shiu (1998) defined the function mδ(u) =E[e−δ τ(u)w(X+(u), Y+(u)) 1 (τ(u) < ∞)], where δ ≥ 0 can be interpreted as a force of interest and w(r,s) as a penalty function, meaning that mδ(u) is the expected discounted penalty payable at ruin. This function is known to satisfy a defective renewal equation, but easy explicit formulae for mδ(u) are only available for certain special cases for the claim size distribution. Approximations thus arise by approximating the desired mδ(u) by that associated with one of these special cases. In this paper a functional approach is taken, giving rise to first-order correction terms for the above approximations.


2002 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 324-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon E. Willmot

An explicit convolution representation for the equilibrium residual lifetime distribution of compound zero-modified geometric distributions is derived. Second-order reliability properties are seen to be essentially preserved under geometric compounding, and complement results of Brown (1990) and Cai and Kalashnikov (2000). The convolution representation is then extended to the nth-order equilibrium distribution. This higher-order convolution representation is used to evaluate the stop-loss premium and higher stop-loss moments of the compound zero-modified geometric distribution, as well as the Laplace transform of the kth moment of the time of ruin in the classical risk model.


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