scholarly journals Dividend Moments in the Dual Risk Model: Exact and Approximate Approaches

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (02) ◽  
pp. 399-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric C.K. Cheung ◽  
Steve Drekic

In the classical compound Poisson risk model, it is assumed that a company (typically an insurance company) receives premium at a constant rate and pays incurred claims until ruin occurs. In contrast, for certain companies (typically those focusing on invention), it might be more appropriate to assume expenses are paid at a fixed rate and occasional random income is earned. In such cases, the surplus process of the company can be modelled as a dual of the classical compound Poisson model, as described in Avanzi et al. (2007). Assuming further that a barrier strategy is applied to such a model (i.e., any overshoot beyond a fixed level caused by an upward jump is paid out as a dividend until ruin occurs), we are able to derive integro-differential equations for the moments of the total discounted dividends as well as the Laplace transform of the time of ruin. These integro-differential equations can be solved explicitly assuming the jump size distribution has a rational Laplace transform. We also propose a discrete-time analogue of the continuous-time dual model and show that the corresponding quantities can be solved for explicitly leaving the discrete jump size distribution arbitrary. While the discrete-time model can be considered as a stand-alone model, it can also serve as an approximation to the continuous-time model. Finally, we consider a generalization of the so-called Dickson-Waters modification in optimal dividends problems by maximizing the difference between the expected value of discounted dividends and the present value of a fixed penalty applied at the time of ruin.

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 399-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric C.K. Cheung ◽  
Steve Drekic

In the classical compound Poisson risk model, it is assumed that a company (typically an insurance company) receives premium at a constant rate and pays incurred claims until ruin occurs. In contrast, for certain companies (typically those focusing on invention), it might be more appropriate to assume expenses are paid at a fixed rate and occasional random income is earned. In such cases, the surplus process of the company can be modelled as a dual of the classical compound Poisson model, as described in Avanzi et al. (2007). Assuming further that a barrier strategy is applied to such a model (i.e., any overshoot beyond a fixed level caused by an upward jump is paid out as a dividend until ruin occurs), we are able to derive integro-differential equations for the moments of the total discounted dividends as well as the Laplace transform of the time of ruin. These integro-differential equations can be solved explicitly assuming the jump size distribution has a rational Laplace transform. We also propose a discrete-time analogue of the continuous-time dual model and show that the corresponding quantities can be solved for explicitly leaving the discrete jump size distribution arbitrary. While the discrete-time model can be considered as a stand-alone model, it can also serve as an approximation to the continuous-time model. Finally, we consider a generalization of the so-called Dickson-Waters modification in optimal dividends problems by maximizing the difference between the expected value of discounted dividends and the present value of a fixed penalty applied at the time of ruin.


2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C.M. Dickson ◽  
Marjan Qazvini

AbstractChen et al. (2014), studied a discrete semi-Markov risk model that covers existing risk models such as the compound binomial model and the compound Markov binomial model. We consider their model and build numerical algorithms that provide approximations to the probability of ultimate ruin and the probability and severity of ruin in a continuous time two-state Markov-modulated risk model. We then study the finite time ruin probability for a discrete m-state model and show how we can approximate the density of the time of ruin in a continuous time Markov-modulated model with more than two states.


2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (02) ◽  
pp. 293-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Attahiru Sule Alfa ◽  
Steve Drekic

In this paper, we show that the delayed Sparre Andersen insurance risk model in discrete time can be analyzed as a doubly infinite Markov chain. We then describe how matrix analytic methods can be used to establish a computational procedure for calculating the probability distributions associated with fundamental ruin-related quantities of interest, such as the time of ruin, the surplus immediately prior to ruin, and the deficit at ruin. Special cases of the model, namely the ordinary and stationary Sparre Andersen models, are considered in several numerical examples.


2003 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 543-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Picard ◽  
Claude Lefèvre

We continue the study of the discrete-time risk model introduced by Picard et al. (2003). The cumulative loss process (St)t∊ℕ has independent and stationary increments, the increments per unit of time having nonnegative integer values with distribution {ai, i ∊ ℕ and mean ā. The premium receipt process (ck)k∊ℕ is deterministic, nonnegative and nonuniform; in addition, we assume it to be regular in order for there to exist a constant c > ā such that the deviation is bounded as the time t varies. We are interested in whether or not ruin occurs within a finite time. If T is the time of ruin, we obtain P(T = ∞) as the limit of P(T > t) as t → ∞, firstly in the particular case where c = 1/d for some positive d ∊ ℕ, and then in the general case for positive c under the condition that a0 > ½.


2003 ◽  
Vol 40 (03) ◽  
pp. 543-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Picard ◽  
Claude Lefèvre

We continue the study of the discrete-time risk model introduced by Picard et al. (2003). The cumulative loss process (S t ) t∊ℕ has independent and stationary increments, the increments per unit of time having nonnegative integer values with distribution {a i , i ∊ ℕ and mean ā. The premium receipt process (c k ) k∊ℕ is deterministic, nonnegative and nonuniform; in addition, we assume it to be regular in order for there to exist a constant c > ā such that the deviation is bounded as the time t varies. We are interested in whether or not ruin occurs within a finite time. If T is the time of ruin, we obtain P(T = ∞) as the limit of P(T > t) as t → ∞, firstly in the particular case where c = 1/d for some positive d ∊ ℕ, and then in the general case for positive c under the condition that a 0 > ½.


2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 281-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew C.Y. Ng

AbstractIn this paper, we consider the dual of the classical Cramér-Lundberg model when gains follow a phase-type distribution. By using the property of phase-type distribution, two pairs of upcrossing and downcrossing barrier probabilities are derived. Explicit formulas for the expected total discounted dividends until ruin and the Laplace transform of the time of ruin under a variety of dividend strategies can then be obtained without the use of Laplace transforms.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-93
Author(s):  
Alexander Mikhailov ◽  
◽  
Gennadiy Pronchev ◽  

The paper studies the model of «Power-Society» system with two clans and bipolar reaction of the society. The «Power-Society» model describes the dynamics of distribution of power in hierarchy. This dynamics is influenced by society. Continuous-time «Power-Society» model has the form of parabolic equation in the case of continuous hierarchy, and the form of system of ordinary differential equations in the case of discrete hierarchy. The discrete-time model considered in this paper has the form of five dynamical equations. Bipolar reaction of the society refers to the situation with two stable distributions of power. In other words, for each government official two values are possible for the volume of power. Each of these values is considered by society as desirable. If each official holds the greater volume, we say that there is the «strong hand» distribution, if they all hold the smaller volume, this is the participatory distribution. Bureaucratic clans are an association of bureaucrats united by common interests and pursuing common goals, generally speaking, different from those of society as a whole. The paper considers a simple hierarchy of five officials, of which one is the head and four others form two competing clans. The system is studied numerically. It is shown, in particular, that in this system, the clan's lust for power significantly affects how quickly it manages to increase its power, however, the achieved amount of power itself almost does not depend on the lust for power, but is determined by the reaction of society.


2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Attahiru Sule Alfa ◽  
Steve Drekic

In this paper, we show that the delayed Sparre Andersen insurance risk model in discrete time can be analyzed as a doubly infinite Markov chain. We then describe how matrix analytic methods can be used to establish a computational procedure for calculating the probability distributions associated with fundamental ruin-related quantities of interest, such as the time of ruin, the surplus immediately prior to ruin, and the deficit at ruin. Special cases of the model, namely the ordinary and stationary Sparre Andersen models, are considered in several numerical examples.


2003 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 637-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Sun ◽  
H. Yang

ABSTRACTIn this paper we consider a discrete time insurance risk model with interest income. Using the recursive calculation method of De Vylder & Goovaerts (1988), recursive equations for the finite time ruin probabilities and the distribution of the time of ruin are derived. Fredholm type integral equations for the ultimate ruin probability, the distribution of the severity of ruin, the joint distribution of surplus before and after ruin, and the probability of absolute ruin are obtained. Numerical results are included.


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