Meta Models for Real-Time Design Assessment Within an Integrated Information and Numerical Modelling Framework

Abstract. Reliable real-time forecasts of the discharge can provide valuable information for the management of a river basin system. For the management of ecological releases even discharge forecasts with moderate accuracy can be beneficial. Sequential data assimilation using the Ensemble Kalman Filter provides a tool that is both efficient and robust for a real-time modelling framework. One key parameter in a hydrological system is the soil moisture, which recently can be characterized by satellite based measurements. A forecasting framework for the prediction of discharges is developed and applied to three different sub-basins of the Zambezi River Basin. The model is solely based on remote sensing data providing soil moisture and rainfall estimates. The soil moisture product used is based on the back-scattering intensity of a radar signal measured by a radar scatterometer. These soil moisture data correlate well with the measured discharge of the corresponding watershed if the data are shifted by a time lag which is dependent on the size and the dominant runoff process in the catchment. This time lag is the basis for the applicability of the soil moisture data for hydrological forecasts. The conceptual model developed is based on two storage compartments. The processes modeled include evaporation losses, infiltration and percolation. The application of this model in a real-time modelling framework yields good results in watersheds where soil storage is an important factor. The lead time of the forecast is dependent on the size and the retention capacity of the watershed. For the largest watershed a forecast over 40 days can be provided. However, the quality of the forecast increases significantly with decreasing prediction time. In a watershed with little soil storage and a quick response to rainfall events, the performance is relatively poor and the lead time is as short as 10 days only.

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Design of Airport Integrated Information System Based on Real-time Network

2020 IEEE 2nd International Conference on Civil Aviation Safety and Information Technology (ICCASIT ◽

10.1109/iccasit50869.2020.9368853 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Zhikun Liu ◽

Wei Zhang ◽

Chuping Yang ◽

Long Fan

Keyword(s):

Information System ◽

Real Time ◽

Integrated Information System ◽

Integrated Information

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Towards an efficient storm surge and inundation forecasting system over the Bengal delta: chasing the Supercyclone Amphan

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-21-2523-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (8) ◽

pp. 2523-2541

Author(s):

Md. Jamal Uddin Khan ◽

Fabien Durand ◽

Xavier Bertin ◽

Laurent Testut ◽

Yann Krien ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Coastal Region ◽

Computationally Efficient ◽

Bengal Delta ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Effective Decision Making ◽

Storm Surge Forecasting

Abstract. The Bay of Bengal is a well-known breeding ground to some of the deadliest cyclones in history. Despite recent advancements, the complex morphology and hydrodynamics of this large delta and the associated modelling complexity impede accurate storm surge forecasting in this highly vulnerable region. Here we present a proof of concept of a physically consistent and computationally efficient storm surge forecasting system tractable in real time with limited resources. With a state-of-the-art wave-coupled hydrodynamic numerical modelling system, we forecast the recent Supercyclone Amphan in real time. From the available observations, we assessed the quality of our modelling framework. We affirmed the evidence of the key ingredients needed for an efficient, real-time surge and inundation forecast along this active and complex coastal region. This article shows the proof of the maturity of our framework for operational implementation, which can particularly improve the quality of localized forecast for effective decision-making over the Bengal delta shorelines as well as over other similar cyclone-prone regions.

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Towards an efficient storm surge and inundation forecasting system over the Bengal delta: Chasing the super-cyclone Amphan

10.5194/nhess-2020-340 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Md Jamal Uddin Khan ◽

Fabien Durand ◽

Xavier Bertin ◽

Laurent Testut ◽

Yann Krien ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Coastal Region ◽

Computationally Efficient ◽

Bengal Delta ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Super Cyclone ◽

Storm Surge Forecasting

Abstract. The Bay of Bengal is a well-known breeding ground to some of the deadliest cyclones in history. Despite recent advancements, the complex morphology and hydrodynamics of this large delta and the associated modelling computational costs impede the storm surge forecasting in this highly vulnerable region. Here we present a proof of concept of a physically consistent and computationally efficient storm surge forecasting system tractable in real-time with limited resources. With a state-of-the-art wave-coupled hydrodynamic numerical modelling system, we forecast the recent super cyclone Amphan in real-time. From the available observations, we assessed the quality of our modelling framework. We affirmed the evidence of the key ingredients needed for an efficient, real-time surge and inundation forecast along this active and complex coastal region. This article shows the proof of the maturity of our framework for operational implementation, which can particularly improve the quality of localized forecast for effective decision-making.

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Limitations of a State-of-the-Art Numerical Modelling Framework for Two-Phase Flow in Aero-Engine Air/Oil Separators

Volume 1: Aircraft Engine; Fans and Blowers; Marine ◽

10.1115/gt2016-56633 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Thiago Piazera de Carvalho ◽

Hervé P. Morvan ◽

David Hargreaves ◽

Laura Cordes ◽

Corina Höfler

Keyword(s):

Pressure Drop ◽

Numerical Modelling ◽

Metal Foam ◽

State Of The Art ◽

Air Flow ◽

Metal Foams ◽

Qualitative Assessment ◽

Shaft Speed ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Aero Engine

The development and limitations of a numerical modelling framework applied to an aero-engine air/oil separator are presented here. Oil enters the device in the form of dispersed droplets and primary separation occurs by centrifuging larger droplets towards the outer walls, whereas secondary separation occurs by partially coalescing and centrifuging smaller droplets within a porous material, namely an open-cell metal foam. The work described here is part of a study led jointly by the University of Nottingham (UNott) and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) in the Engine Breakthrough Components and Subsystems (E-BREAK) project. The main objectives for UNott have been to define a CFD methodology able to provide an accurate representation of the air flow behaviour and a qualitative assessment of the oil capture within the air/oil separator. The feasibility of using the current state-of-the-art modelling framework is assessed. Experimental measurements of the overall pressure drop and oil capture performed at KIT are used to validate the simulations. The methodology presented here overcomes some limitations and simplifications present in previous studies. A novel macroscopic model for the secondary oil separation phenomena within metal foams is presented. Experiments and simulations were conducted for three different separator configurations, one without a metal foam, and two with metal foams of different pore sizes. For each configuration, a variation of air flow, shaft speed and droplet size was conducted. The focus was on the separation of droplets with a diameter smaller than 10 μm. Single-phase air flow simulation results showed that overall pressure drop increases with both increased shaft speed and air flow, largely in agreement with the experiments. Oil capture results proved to be more difficult to be captured by the numerical model. One of the limitations of the modelling set-up employed here is not capable of capturing droplet re-entrainment due to accumulation of oil inside the metal foam, which is believed to play a significant role in the separation phenomena.

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