Detection and Prediction of House Price Bubbles: Evidence from a New City

2018 ◽  
pp. 782-795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanwool Jang ◽  
Kwangwon Ahn ◽  
Dongshin Kim ◽  
Yena Song
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
New City

Housing markets and housing policy in the Nordics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Páll Tómas Finnsson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Ethnic Segregation ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
Cost Of Construction ◽  
Policy Mechanisms

The Nordic Economic Policy Review (NEPR) is an annual publication presenting some of the latest and cutting-edge research into selected topics of economic policy. This year’s edition dives into the Nordic housing markets, examining some of the key policy mechanisms behind the rapidly rising housing prices, as well as the impacts on social welfare and social and ethnic segregation. The theme is selected by the NEPR steering group, which consists of representatives from the Nordic Ministries of Finance, Nordregio, and the NEPR editor. This publication provides a short summary of the five NEPR 2021 articles, which seek to answer the following questions: André Anundsen: What is the prevalence of house price bubbles in the Nordics? Erlend Eide Bø: Do buy-to-let investments lead to higher housing prices? Mats Bergman and Sten Nyberg: What explains the large increase in the relative cost of construction? Niku Määttänen: How can housing taxation improve social welfare? Essi Eerola: How do Nordic housing policies affect affordability and integration?

A look into German housing markets: A bubble call?

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-301
Author(s):  
Jan R. Kim ◽  
Gieyoung Lim
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Present Value Model ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Steep Rise ◽  
Value Model ◽  
German Housing Market

The steep rise in German house prices in recent years raises the question of whether a speculative bubble has already emerged. Using a modified present-value model, we estimate the size of speculative house price bubbles in the German housing market. We do not find evidence for positive bubble accumulation in recent years, and interpret the current bullish run as reflecting the correction of house prices that have been undervalued for more than 10 years. With house prices close to their fair values as of 2018:Q1, our answer to the question is, ‘Not yet, but it is likely soon’.

scholarly journals Measuring House Price Bubbles

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven C. Bourassa ◽  
Martin Hoesli ◽  
Elias Oikarinen
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Price Bubbles

An early warning system to identify house price bubbles

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-310
Author(s):  
Daniel Hagemann ◽  
Monika Wohlmann
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
House Price ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Ordered Logit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Bubbles

Purpose The global financial and economic crisis resulting from the US housing crisis has shown that house prices can have far-reaching consequences for the real economy. For macroprudential supervision, it is, therefore, necessary to identify house price bubbles at an early stage to counteract speculative price developments and to ensure financial market stability. This paper aims to develop an early warning system to signal speculative price bubbles. Design/methodology/approach The results of explosivity tests are used to identify periods of excessive price increases in 18 industrialized countries. The early warning system is then based on a logit and an ordered logit regression, in which monetary, macroeconomic, regulatory, demographic and private factors are used as explanatory variables. Findings The empirical results show that monetary developments have the highest explanatory power for the existence of house price bubbles. Further, the study reveals currently emerging house price bubbles in Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. Practical implications The results implicate a new global housing boom, particularly in those countries that did not experience a major price correction during the global financial crisis. Originality/value The ordered logit model is an advanced approach that offers the advantage of being able to differentiate between different phases of a house price bubble, thereby allowing a multi-level assessment of the risk of speculative excesses in the housing market.

scholarly journals House price bubbles in China

2012 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 786-800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Ren ◽  
Cong Xiong ◽  
Yufei Yuan
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Price Bubbles

Investor Rationality and House Price Bubbles: Berlin and the German Reunification

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 465-486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Holtemöller ◽  
Rainer Schulz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Model ◽  
House Price ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
German Reunification ◽  
Apartment House ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Constant Quality

Abstract We analyze the behavior of investors in the Berlin rental apartment house market over the years 1980-2004. Using constant-quality multipliers ( price- rent ratios), we reject the hypothesis that multipliers in the market were set in a rational manner. Supported by narrative evidence, we conjecture that investors misjudged the economic effects of the German reunification. To examine this, we employ a stylized structural economic model and analyze the effects of shocks on rational multipliers. It seems that investors confused the reunification with a permanent supply side shock to the economy. By basing their investment decisions on this misjudgement, investors behaved irrationally, but in a very uncertain and unprecedented environment.

The role of house price indices in managing the integration of finance and housing markets in the European Union

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 270-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Grover ◽  
Christine Grover
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
House Price ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Property Price

Purpose – The article aims to examine why residential property price indices (RPPI) are important, particularly in the European Union (EU) with its highly integrated financial system and examines the problems in developing a pan-European price index that aggregates the indices of different countries. Design/methodology/approach – The reasons why RPPI are important is explored through a review of the literature on residential price bubbles and the issues with the indices through studies of individual examples. Findings – Financial integration in the EU has taken place without adequate consideration having been given to diversity in residential property markets. The development of means of monitoring them has lagged behind integration with the national price indices using a variety of methods and approaches to data that limit the extent to which they can be aggregated. Originality/value – The article shows the need for better quality data about house price trends in Europe if the consequences of future bubbles are to be avoided. Current initiatives are unlikely to satisfy this, as they leave too many choices about methodology and data in the hands of individual countries.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document