Confounding and Causal Path Diagrams

Author(s):  
Graham R. Law ◽  
Rosie Green ◽  
George T. H. Ellison
Keyword(s):  
Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1242-1261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Zhong Yao ◽  
Peng Cheng Kuang ◽  
Ji Nan Lin

Purpose The purpose of this study is to reveal the lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The methods used for this study are as follows: empirical mode decomposition; shift-window-based Pearson coefficient and thermal causal path method. Findings The fluctuation characteristic of Chinese stock market before 2010 is very similar to international crude oil prices. After 2010, their fluctuation patterns are significantly different from each other. The two stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices, revealing varying lead–lag orders among stock markets. During 2000 and 2004, the stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices but they are less distinct from the lead–lag orders. After 2004, the effects changed so that the leading effect of Shanghai composite index remains no longer significant, and after 2012, S&P index just significantly lagged behind the international crude oil prices. Originality/value China and the US stock markets develop different pattens to handle the crude oil prices fluctuation after finance crisis in 1998.


2014 ◽  
Vol 256 ◽  
pp. 678-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.D. Angulo ◽  
J. Alvarez ◽  
F.L. Teixeira ◽  
M.F. Pantoja ◽  
S.G. Garcia

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Watts ◽  
Joseph Bulbulia ◽  
Russell D. Gray ◽  
Quentin D. Atkinson

AbstractWe welcome Norenzayan et al.’s claim that the prosocial effects of beliefs in supernatural agents extend beyond Big Gods. To date, however, supporting evidence has focused on the Abrahamic Big God, making generalisations difficult. We discuss a recent study that highlights the need for clarity about the causal path by which supernatural beliefs affect the evolution of big societies.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessye Maxwell ◽  
Adam Socrates ◽  
Kylie P. Glanville ◽  
Marta Di Forti ◽  
Robin M. Murray ◽  
...  

AbstractThe notion that behaviour may be on a causal path from genetics to psychiatric disorders, such as schizophrenia, highlights a potential for practical interventions. Motivated by this, we test the association between schizophrenia (SCZ) polygenic risk scores (PRS) and 420 behavioural traits (personality, psychological, lifestyle, nutritional) in a psychiatrically healthy sub-cohort of the UK Biobank. Higher schizophrenia PRS was associated with a range of traits, including lower verbal-numerical reasoning (P= 6×10−61), higher nervous feelings (P= 2×10−51) and higher self-reported risk-taking (P= 2×10−41). We follow-up the risk-taking association, hypothesising that the association may be due to a genetic propensity for risk-taking leading to greater migration, urbanicity or drug-taking – reported environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, and all positively associated with risk-taking in these data. However, schizophrenia PRS was also associated with traits, such as tea drinking (P= 2×10−34), that are highly unlikely to be on a causal path to schizophrenia. We depict four causal relationships that may in theory underlie such PRS-trait associations and illustrate ways of testing for each. For example, we contrast PRS-trait trends in the healthy sub-cohort to the corresponding trait values of medicated and non-medicated individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia, allowing some differentiation of mediation-by-behaviour, disease-onset effects and treatment effects. However, dedicated follow-up studies and new methods are required to fully disentangle these relationships. Thus, while we urge caution in interpretation of simple PRS cross-trait associations, we propose that well-designed PRS analyses can contribute to identifying behaviours on the causal path from genetics to disease.


2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 305-313
Author(s):  
Nina Fei ◽  
Youlong Yang

2005 ◽  
Vol 58 (8) ◽  
pp. 1479-1513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Weidenfeld ◽  
Klaus Oberauer ◽  
Robin Hörnig

We present an integrated model for the understanding of and the reasoning from conditional statements. Central assumptions from several approaches are integrated into a causal path model. According to the model, the cognitive availability of exceptions to a conditional reduces the subjective conditional probability of the consequent, given the antecedent. This conditional probability determines people's degree of belief in the conditional, which in turn affects their willingness to accept logically valid inferences. In addition to this indirect pathway, the model contains a direct pathway: Availability of exceptional situations directly reduces the endorsement of valid inferences. We tested the integrated model with three experiments using conditional statements embedded in pseudonaturalistic cover stories. An explicitly mentioned causal link between antecedent and consequent was either present (causal conditionals) or absent (arbitrary conditionals). The model was supported for the causal but not for the arbitrary conditional statements.


Author(s):  
Ferman Omar Ismael ◽  
Mehmet Yeşiltaş ◽  
Simbarashe Rabson Andrea

This study examines the impact of corporate social responsibility on organisational citizenship behaviour, work engagement, and job embeddedness. Structural equation modeling tests were conducted on 522 responses gathered from telecommunications companies in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The results depicted that corporate social responsibility improvements have positive effects on organisational citizenship behaviour, work engagement, and job embeddedness. Further observations depicted an insignificant positive partial causal path between corporate social responsibility, work engagement, and organizational citizenship behaviour. This study's novelty elements are inherent in its potency to examine the causal path between corporate social responsibility, work engagement, and organizational citizenship behavior. This study contributes to the literature by further expanding job embeddedness theory and proposing a comprehensive job embeddedness framework that researchers and practitioners can adopt in future research.


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