PMP Driven Probable Maximum Flood for 4 Dams in Sungai Perak Hydroelectric Scheme

In this paper, an improved probabilistic method for flood analysis using the probable maximum flood, the beta function, and orthogonal Jacobi’s polynomials is proposed. The shape of the beta function depends on the sample's characteristics and the bounds of the phenomenon. On the other hand, a serial of Jacobi’s polynomials has been used improving the beta function and increasing its convergence degree toward the real flood probability density function. This mathematical model has been tested using a sample of 1000 generated beta random data. Finally, some practical applications with real data series, from important Quebec's rivers, have been performed; the model solutions for these rivers showed the accuracy of this new method in flood frequency estimation. Key words: probable maximum flood, beta function, orthogonal polynomials, distribution function, flood frequency estimation, data generation, convergency.

Download Full-text

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Analysis for Bakun Dam Area

Journal of Civil Engineering Science and Technology ◽

10.33736/jcest.95.2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 53-59

Author(s):

Yiau S.S. ◽

F.J. Putuhena

Keyword(s):

Catchment Area ◽

Flood Control ◽

Design Criterion ◽

Control Measures ◽

Dam Construction ◽

Research Publication ◽

Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽

Maximum Precipitation ◽

Probable Maximum Flood ◽

The One

Probable Maximum Precipitation is defined as the greatest depth of precipitation which is possible for a given time and duration over a given size storm area under known meteorological conditions. This concept has been used as design criterion of major flood control measures such as spillways of large dams worldwide. It is essential for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood. This paper represents the results of PMP analysis for Bakun Dam Area which has a catchment area of 14,750 km2. Three sets of results were produced, i.e. by statistical method (with frequency factors from World Meteorological Organization manual and National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia in Technical Research Publication No. 1 (TRP 1)) for duration of 1 hour, 8 hours, 24 hours and daily and by experimental method for production of daily PMP. The results were compared with each other and the one made by Sarawak Electricity Supply Corporation on Bakun Dam construction. The set of PMP values results from substitution of Km developed by NAHRIM was concluded to be the most reliable results as daily PMP (276mm) was consistent with the one (280mm) produced by SESCO. However, 6 days PMP value (950mm) done by SESCO was recommended as the Bakun Dam Area cover huge catchment area which higher duration of PMP value should be applied .

Download Full-text

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) Using GSSHA Model (Case Study Area Upper Citarum Watershed)

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/893/1/012023 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 893 (1) ◽

pp. 012023

Author(s):

Puji R A Sibuea ◽

Dewi R Agriamah ◽

Edi Riawan ◽

Rusmawan Suwarman ◽

Atika Lubis

Keyword(s):

Model Simulation ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Model Case ◽

Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽

Maximum Precipitation ◽

Hydrologic Analysis ◽

Probable Maximum Flood ◽

The Mean ◽

The Impact

Abstract Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) used in the design of hydrological structures reliabilities and safety which its value is obtained from the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). The objectives of this study are to estimate PMP and PMF value in Upper Citarum Watershed and understand the impact from different PMP value to PMF value with two scenarios those are Scenario A and B. Scenario A will calculate the PMP value from each Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) rainfall data grid and Scenario B calculate the PMP value from the mean area rainfall. PMP value will be obtained by the statistical Hershfield method, and the PMF will be obtained by employed the PMP value as the input data in Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) hydrologic model. Model simulation results for PMF hydrographs from both scenarios show that spatial distribution of rainfall in the Upper Citarum watershed will affect the calculated discharge and whether Scenario A or B can be applied in the study area for PMP duration equal or higher than 72 hours. PMF peak discharge for Scenario A is averagely 13,12% larger than Scenario B.

Download Full-text