Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages

1992 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Katz ◽  
Barbara G. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Changing Climate

Investigating the effects of climate change on structural resistance and actions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Orcesi ◽  
Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga ◽  
Olga Markogiannaki ◽  
Yue Li ◽  
Franck Schoefs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Design Life ◽  
Structural Durability ◽  
Structural Resistance ◽  
Physical And Chemical ◽  
Life Function

<p>One major issue when considering the effects of climate change is to understand, qualify and quantify how natural hazards and the changing climate will likely impact infrastructure assets and services as it strongly depends on current and future climate variability, location, asset design life, function and condition. So far, there is no well-defined and agreed performance indicator that isolates the effects of climate change for structures. Rather, one can mention some key considerations on how climate change may produce changes of vulnerability due to physical and chemical actions affecting structural durability or changes of the exposure in terms of intensity/frequency of extreme events. This paper considers these two aspects and associated challenges, considering some recent activities of members of the IABSE TG6.1.</p>

scholarly journals Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 3785-3808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Wada ◽  
L. P. H. van Beek ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Water Stress ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Blue Water ◽  
Global Population

Abstract. During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960–2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr−1 (gross/net) over the period 1960–2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g. India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba) some of past extreme events were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate-induced.

Determination of seasonal forecast skill in identifying extreme events of temperature, wind speed, and SPI

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Palma ◽  
Franco Catalano ◽  
Irene Cionni ◽  
Marcello Petitta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasts

&lt;p&gt;Renewable energy is the fastest-growing source of electricity globally, but climate variability and impacting events affecting the potential productivity of plants are obstacles to its integration and planning.&amp;#160;Knowing a few months in advance the productivity of plants and the impact of extreme events on productivity and infrastructure can help operators and policymakers make the energy sector more resilient to climate variability, promoting the deployment of renewable energy while maintaining energy security.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The energy sector already uses weather forecasts up to 15 days for plant management; beyond this time horizon, climatologies are routinely used. This approach has inherent weaknesses, including the inability to predict extreme events, the prediction of which is extremely useful to decision-makers. Information on seasonal climate variability obtained through climate forecasts can be of considerable benefit in decision-making processes.&amp;#160;The Climate Data Store of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) provides seasonal forecasts and a common period of retrospective simulations (hindcasts) with equal spatial temporal resolution for simulations from 5 European forecast centres (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Meteo France (MF), UK Met Office (UKMO) and Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC)), one US forecasting centre (NCEP) plus the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) model.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this work, we analyse the skill and the accuracy of a subset of the operational seasonal forecasts provided by Copernicus C3S, focusing on three relevant essential climate variables for the energy sector: temperature (t2m), wind speed (sfcWind, relevant to the wind energy production), and precipitation. The latter has been analysed by taking the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) into account.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;First, the methodologies for bias correction have been defined. Subsequently, the reliability of the forecasts has been assessed using appropriate reliability indicators based on comparison with ERA5 reanalysis dataset.&amp;#160;The hindcasts cover the period 1993-2017. For each of the variables considered, we evaluated the seasonal averages based on monthly means for two seasons: winter (DJF) and summer (JJA). Data have been bias corrected following two methodologies, one based on the application of a variance inflation technique to ensure the correction of the bias and the correspondence of variance between forecast and observation; the other based on the correction of the bias, the overall forecast variance and the ensemble spread as described in Doblas-Reyes et al. (2005).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Predictive ability has been assessed by calculating binary (Brier Skill Score, BSS hereafter, and Ranked Probability Skill Score, RPSS hereafter) and continuous (Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score, CRPSS hereafter) scores.&amp;#160;Forecast performance has been assessed using ERA 5 reanalysis as pseudo-observations.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this work we discuss the results obtained with different bias correction techniques highlighting the outcomes obtained analyzing the BSS for the first and the last terciles and the first and the last percentiles (10th and 90th). This analysis has the goal to identify the regions in which the seasonal forecast can be used to identify potential extreme events.&lt;/p&gt;

An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3607-3622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Dono ◽  
Raffaele Cortignani ◽  
Luca Doro ◽  
Luca Giraldo ◽  
Luigi Ledda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Changing Climate

scholarly journals Droughts and governance impacts on water scarcity: an~analysis in the Brazilian semi-arid

2015 ◽  
Vol 369 ◽  
pp. 129-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. C. S. Silva ◽  
C. O. Galvão ◽  
G. N. S. Silva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Semi Arid

Abstract. Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom's framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES) was applied. Ostrom's framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997–2000, when Brazil's new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012–2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom's principle "Clearly defined boundaries" showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought's impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.

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