Oscillations of the Black Sea sea level in the north part of the coast

1999 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-130
Author(s):  
Yu. I. Goryachkin ◽  
V. A. Ivanov ◽  
Yu. A. Stepanyants
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
North Part

scholarly journals Forecasting sea level fluctuations caused by storm winds at the ports in Odesa Region of the north-western part of the Black Sea

2020 ◽  
pp. 105-114
Author(s):  
Yu. S. Tuchkovenko ◽  
O. S. Matygin ◽  
V. Yu. Chepurna
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
The North ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Lead Time ◽  
North Western

Increasing the draught of ships that may be accepted by ports for loading at their loading berths is one of the main tasks aimed at development and freight turnover enhancement of sea trade ports located in Odesa Region of the north-western part of the Black Sea (cities of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi). An operational forecasting of short-term sea level fluctuations caused by storm winds presents a critical task for ensuring safe navigation across the ports’ water area and approach channels. The article is devoted to analysing and discussing the results of tests of a simplified 2D hydrodynamic model designed for forecasting such phenomena as upsurge and downsurge of the sea level caused by storm winds in the vicinity of sea ports in Odesa Region of the north-western part of the Black Sea. Spatio-temporal variability of wind conditions at the sea-to-atmosphere boundary was set based on the data retrieved from a 10-day synoptic forecast using global atmospheric prediction model GFS (Global Forecast System). The study analyses the results of forecast of significant (the ones exceeding 30 cm) short-term sea level drops and rises at the ports which were observed in 2016, 2017 and 2020. It was established that, in case of use of the GFS forecast data, the pattern of sea level denivellations caused by storm winds and their amplitude in the majority of events start approximating to the observed values provided the forecast has a 4-day lead time. Therefore the accuracy of wind conditions variability forecast with application of the GFS model having a longer lead advance time is not sufficient for forecasting the sea level fluctuations caused by storm winds.  The study made it possible to get an acceptable equivalence between the values of sea level denivellation amplitudes which were forecast with a 1-to-3-day lead time and the ones observed afterwards. In particular, when the forecast lead time is equal to »2 days, in relation to the expected storm conditions, the average absolute error for the forecast of sea level fluctuations amplitude constituted 7-8 cm, while its permissible value was defined as 15 cm, and the average relative error – 16-18%. It allowed making a conclusion that a hydrodynamic model option, applied alongside with the forecasting information on wind conditions variability retrieved with the help of the GFS weather prediction model, may be used for operational forecasting of short-term sea level fluctuations caused by storm winds with the forecast lead time of up to 4 days.

scholarly journals Wind-induced sea level fluctuations at Yuzhnyi and Chornomorsk sea ports and evaluation of the possibility of their forecast

2018 ◽  
pp. 100-106
Author(s):  
R. V. Gavrilyuk ◽  
N. M. Yuvchenko
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
The South ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Wind Characteristics ◽  
Sea Ports

The sea level of the Black Sea coastal area is subject to non-periodic wind-induced fluctuations. Such fluctuations affect economic activity of the sea ports, enterprises and businesses located within the coastal area while those may be flooded when the sea level rises and, on the contrary, there is a threat of vessels grounding in case of sea level fall. There are several big sea ports which are located at the north-western part of the Black Sea and affected by wind-induced fluctuations. Therefore, the study of these processes and development of methods allowing their forecast are of great practical interest and this fact proves the topicality of the conducted research. The article's aim is to analyse wind-induced fluctuations within the water area of Yuzhnyi and Chornomorsk sea ports, identify statistical links between such fluctuations and wind characteristics / equations used for calculation of their values. The observations at Chornomorsk (2006-2013) and Yuzhnyi (2000-2011) stations show that within a year there are 1-2 upsurge-downsurge occurrences during an average month, however, the number of those increases up to 3-4 over the autumn-winter period. The average sea level rise at Chornomorsk station is equal to 34 cm, the average sea level fall – 38 cm, maximum values amount to 97 cm and 191 cm, respectively. The average sea level rise at Yuzhnyi station is equal to 30 cm, the average sea level fall – 34 cm, maximum values amount to 91 and 98 cm, respectively. The average duration of wind-induced fluctuations at both stations amount to 34-38 hours. In most cases the sea level rise is observed at Chornomosk station when winds blow from the South and the South-East, at Yuzhnyi station  – when those blow from the South, the South-East and the South-West. The sea level fall is observed at Chornomosk station when winds blow from the North-West and the West, at Yuzhnyi station – when those blow from the North, the North-West and the North-East. Both stations are characterized with effective directions of wind causing occurrence of upsurge-downsurges. Based on the regression analysis equations for calculation of the sea level rise and fall values associated with wind characteristics were defined. The initial value of the sea level and the sum of the wind projections on effective directions for previous 30 hours are used as arguments in the equations. The accuracy of equation-based calculation constitutes 60-90%. The article offers recommendations on the use of equations when forecasting wind-induced fluctuations.

scholarly journals Simulation modelling of wind-induced sea level fluctuations at the ports of the Odesa Region in the North-Western part of the Black Sea

2019 ◽  
pp. 109-120
Author(s):  
Yu. S. Tuchkovenko
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
The North ◽  
Allowable Error ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
North Western

The paper is devoted to discussion of the prospects of simplified 2D hydrodynamic model use aimed at forecasting the wind-induced sea level fluctuations within the area of sea ports (Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhnyi) of the Odesa Region in the North-Western part of the Black Sea. Spatio-temporal variability of wind conditions at the sea-atmosphere division is specified based on the data of the global numerical weather prediction model of the Global Forecast System (GFS). The research includes the description of the mathematical structure of the hydrodynamic model and the results of its adaptation to the conditions of the simulated sea area. It presents the results of model verification in the version which implies adoption of wind data from the archives of GFS-analysis and GFS-forecasts for 2010, 2016 and 2017. The verification was performed by comparing wind-induced denivellations of the sea level at the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhnyi calculated over the course of modelling and those established on the basis of observational data (with the discreteness of 6 hours). A quantitative assessment of the calculation accuracy was performed for the cases where, according to the observational data, level denivellations exceeded the value of the standard deviation for the entire series. New series of the observed and calculated model-based significant wind-induced denivellations of sea level were formed for each of the ports from the sets of samples that met this condition. Using  these series estimates of the mean square error of the calculations, allowable error of calculations, correlation coefficient between the actual and calculated values of the level denivellations, the probability of the calculation method under the allowable error were obtained. It was established that in the case of use of the data from wind GFS-analysis (with spatial resolution of 0.5° both latitudinally and longitudinally) over the course of modelling the probability of calculation of significant sea level denivellation constitutes 84-85%, and in case of using the data from the GFS-archive of wind forecasts (with spatial resolution of 0.25°) – 88-91%. This allowed making a conclusion that the model has good prospects of use for operational forecast of the sea level fluctuations caused by storm wind in the version implying assimilation of the predicted information on the spatio-temporal variability of wind conditions obtained by means of the GFS global weather forecast model.

scholarly journals Tendencies of long-term changes of temperature fields, salinity and water level of the North-Western part of the Black Sea

2019 ◽  
pp. 84-94
Author(s):  
N. Berlinsky ◽  
R. Gavriluk ◽  
O. Danilenko
Keyword(s):  
Water Temperature ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
North Western

The paper analyzes the variability of hydrological characteristics of the North-Western part of the Black for different temporal scales: long-term, seasonal and synoptic. The traditional methods of geographic investigations, such as comparative-geographic, retrospective and cartographic methods, were used. When analyzing sea level data packages and thermohaline characteristics mathematical methods, including statistical, correlation and regression analysis, were used. As a result of the conducted research quantitative estimates of tendencies of long-term changes of the thermohaline characteristics and level in the North-Western part of the Black Sea were received. Over the period of 1982-2005 an increase of water temperature in the North-Western part of the Black Sea was observed: in winter water temperature in the surface layer increased by 2оC, in the bottom layer – by more than 2оC. Over the period of 1990-2005 an increase of an average annual water temperature in Odesa area constituted 1,2°C. The most considerable and statistically significant temperature increase took place during the summer hydrological season: an average summer temperature increased during this period by 2,7оC. During transitional seasons (autumn and spring) there was also a tendency of temperature increase, however, statistically significant trend was observed only during the autumn period. There is a statistically significant negative trend observed for long-term changes of salinity. For the period of 1990-2005 an average annual salinity decreased by 1.36 ‰. A tendency of salinity decrease was observed for all seasons of the year, however, statistically significant trends are observed only in winter and summer. A close relationship between long-term changes in water salinity and runoff of the Dnieper River was also established. A sea level rise is observed at all stations of the North-Western part of the Black Sea. Over the period of 1947-2012 an average annual sea level in Odesa increased by 14 cm. An analysis of climatic changes of wind-induced sea level fluctuations showed that the frequency of surges of varying intensity remained almost unchanged, however, the frequency of sweeps changed significantly. Over the period of 1980-2012, as opposed to the period of 1947-1979, the frequency of minor sweeps (no more than 30 cm) increased, and the frequency of significant (more than 30 cm) and very significant (more than 50 cm) sweeps, on the contrary, decreased by about 5%-6%. Changes of wind-induced sea level fluctuations' character harmonize with wind direction and wind speed over the North-Western part of the Black Sea.

Modeling of ecological conditions in the Euxine Basin in the Sarmatian and Maeotian by methods of diatom analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 257-261
Author(s):  
Eleonora P. Radionova
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Late Miocene ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Subtidal Zone ◽  
Diatom Analysis ◽  
Diatom Flora ◽  
North West ◽  
Ecological Conditions ◽  
The North

The associations and ecological conditions of the existence of modern diatoms of the North-West (Pridneprovsky), Prikerchensky and Eastern regions of the subtidal zone of the Black Sea are considered. Based on the unity of the composition of the Present and Sarmatian-Meotian diatom flora, an attempt has been made to model some of the ecological c situation of the Late Miocene Euxinian basin.

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