Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model

2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 867-884 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. R. M. Ligtenberg ◽  
W. J. van de Berg ◽  
M. R. van den Broeke ◽  
J. G. L. Rae ◽  
E. van Meijgaard
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Level Change ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Climate Model

scholarly journals Remapping of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance anomalies for large ensemble sea-level change projections

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1747-1762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Brice P. Y. Noël ◽  
Tamsin L. Edwards ◽  
Xavier Fettweis ◽  
Jonathan M. Gregory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Level Change

Abstract. Future sea-level change projections with process-based stand-alone ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance (SMB) forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the geometry used by the climate model. We present a method for applying SMB forcing from climate models to a wide range of Greenland ice sheet models with varying and temporally evolving geometries. In order to achieve that, we translate a given SMB anomaly field as a function of absolute location to a function of surface elevation for 25 regional drainage basins, which can then be applied to different modelled ice sheet geometries. The key feature of the approach is the non-locality of this remapping process. The method reproduces the original forcing data closely when remapped to the original geometry. When remapped to different modelled geometries it produces a physically meaningful forcing with smooth and continuous SMB anomalies across basin divides. The method considerably reduces non-physical biases that would arise by applying the SMB anomaly derived for the climate model geometry directly to a large range of modelled ice sheet model geometries.

scholarly journals Characteristics of the Antarctic surface mass balance, 1958–2002, using a regional atmospheric climate model

2005 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 97-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.J. Van De Berg ◽  
M.R. Van Den Broeke ◽  
C.H. Reijmer ◽  
E. Van Meijgaard
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Solid Precipitation ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Characteristics ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Climate Model

AbstractTemporal and spatial characteristics of the Antarctic specific surface mass balance (SSMB) are presented, including its components solid precipitation, sublimation/deposition and melt. For this purpose, we use the output of a regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2/ANT, horizontal resolution of ~55 km) for the period 1958–2002. RACMO2/ANT uses European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40 year re-analysis (ERA-40) fields as forcing at the lateral boundaries. RACMO2/ANT underestimates SSMB in the high interior of East and West Antarctica and overestimates SSMB on the steep coastal slopes. Otherwise, the modeled spatial pattern of SSMB is in good qualitative agreement with recent compilations of in situ observations. Large-scale patterns, like the precipitation shadow effect of the Antarctic Peninsula, are well reproduced, and mesoscale SSMB patterns, such as the strong precipitation gradients on Law Dome, are well represented in the model. The integrated SSMB over the grounded ice sheet is 153mmw.e. a–1 for the period 1958–2002, which agrees within 5% with the latest measurement compilations. Sublimation and melt remove 7% and <1% respectively of the solid precipitation. We found significant seasonality of solid precipitation, with a maximum in autumn and a minimum in summer. No meaningful trend was identified for the SSMB, because the time series of solid precipitation and SSMB are affected by an inhomogeneity in 1980 within the ERA-40 fields that drive RACMO2/ANT. Sublimation, melt and liquid precipitation increase in time, which is related to a modeled increase in 2m temperature.

scholarly journals ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21<sup>st</sup> century

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helene Seroussi ◽  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Antony J. Payne ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
William H. Lipscomb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and inform on the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimated the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes and the forcings employed. This study presents results from 18 simulations from 15 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100, forced with different scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) representative of the spread in climate model results. The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). The evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss up to 21.0 cm SLE in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.5 and 16.5 cm SLE, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional mass loss of 8 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 AOGCMs show an overall mass loss of 10 mm SLE compared to simulations done under present-day conditions, with limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Decreasing Antarctic surface mass balance due to runoff-dominated ablation by 2100

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Nicolas Jourdain ◽  
Stefan Hofer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The Antarctic

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet is often considered as a negative contributor to the sea level rise as present snowfall accumulation largely compensate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;s&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; for ablation through wind erosion, sublimation and runoff. The latter is even almost negligible since current Antarctic surface melting is limited to relatively scarce events over generally peripheral areas and refreezes almost entirely into the snowpack. However, melting can significantly affect the stability of ice shelves through hydrofracturing, potentially leading to their disintegration, acceleration of grounded ice and increased sea level rise. Although a large increase in snowfall is expected in a warmer climate, more numerous and stronger melting events could conversely lead to a larger risk of ice shelf collapse. In this study, we provide an estimation of the SMB of the Antarctic ice sheet for the end of the 21st&amp;#160;century by forcing the state-of-the-art regional climate model MAR with three different global climate models. We chose the models (from both the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 - CMIP5 and CMIP6) providing the best metrics for representing the current Antarctic climate. While the increase in snowfall largely compensates snow ablation through runoff in CMIP5-forced projections, CMIP6-forced simulations reveal that runoff cannot be neglected in the future as it accounts for a maximum of 50% of snowfall and becomes the main ablation component over the ice sheet. Furthermore, we identify a tipping point (ie., a warming of 4&amp;#176;C) at which the Antarctic SMB starts to decrease as a result of enhanced runoff particularly over ice shelves. Our results highlight the importance of taking into account meltwater production and runoff and indicate that previous model studies neglecting these processes yield overestimated SMB estimates, ultimately leading to underestimated Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. Finally, melt rates over each ice shelf are higher than those that led to the collapse of the Larsen A and B ice shelves, suggesting a high probability of ice shelf collapses all over peripheral Antarctica by 2100.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1295-1322 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Marzeion ◽  
A. H. Jarosch ◽  
M. Hofer
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Level Change ◽  
The World

Abstract. We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85).

scholarly journals ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helene Seroussi ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Mathieu Morlighem ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Antarctic

&lt;div&gt; &lt;div&gt; &lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to differ- ent climate scenarios and inform on the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimated the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes and the forcings employed. This study presents results from 18 simulations from 15 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100, forced with different scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) representative of the spread in climate model results. The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7.8 and 30.0 cm of Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). The evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss up to 21.0 cm SLE in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between -6.5 and 16.5 cm SLE, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional mass loss of 8 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 AOGCMs show an overall mass loss of 10 mm SLE compared to simulations done under present-day conditions, with limited mass gain in East Antarctica.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/div&gt; &lt;/div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;

scholarly journals Remapping of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance anomalies for large ensemble sea-level change projections

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Brice P. Y. Noel ◽  
Tamsin L. Edwards ◽  
Xavier Fettweis ◽  
Jonathan M. Gregory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. Future sea-level change projections with process-based standalone ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance (SMB) forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. We present a method to apply SMB forcing from climate models to a wide range of Greenland ice sheet models with varying and temporally evolving geometries. In order to achieve that, we translate a given SMB anomaly field as a function of absolute location, to a function of surface elevation for 25 regional drainage basins, which can then be applied to different modelled ice sheet geometries. The key feature of the approach is the non-locality of this remapping process. The method reproduces the original forcing data closely when remapped to the original geometry. When remapped to different modelled geometries it produces a physically meaningful forcing with smooth and continuous SMB anomalies across basin divides. The method considerably reduces non-physical biases that would arise by applying the SMB anomaly derived for the observed geometry directly to a large range of modelled ice sheet model geometries.

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