Simulation of Severe Thunderstorms in Conjugation of Westerly and Easterly on 31 March 2019 in Bangladesh

The diagnostic and prognostic studies of thunderstorms/squalls are very important to save live and loss of properties. The present study aims at diagnose the different tropospheric parameters, instability and synoptic conditions associated the severe thunderstorms with squalls, which occurred at different places in Bangladesh on 31 March 2019. For prognostic purposes, the severe thunderstorms occurred on 31 March 2019 have been numerically simulated. In this regard, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to predict different atmospheric conditions associated with the severe storms. The study domain is selected for 9 km horizontal resolution, which almost covers the south Asian region. Numerical experiments have been conducted with the combination of WRF single-moment 6 class (WSM6) microphysics scheme with Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme in simulation of the squall events. Model simulated results are compared with the available observations. The observed values of CAPE at Kolkata both at 0000 and 1200 UTC were 2680.4 and 3039.9 J kg-1 respectively on 31 March 2019 and are found to be comparable with the simulated values. The area averaged actual rainfall for 24 hrs is found is 22.4 mm, which complies with the simulated rainfall of 20-25 mm for 24 hrs. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 29-43

The Efficacy of the WRF-ARW Model in the Genesis and Intensity Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Fani over the Bay of Bengal

An attempt has been carried out to assess the efficacy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting the genesis and intensification events of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) Fani (26 April – 04 May 2019) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). WRF model has been conducted on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) FNL (final) data (0.250 × 0.250). According to the model simulated outcome analysis, the model is capable of predicting the Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Maximum Sustainable Wind Speed (MSWS) pattern reasonably well, despite some deviations. The model has forecasted the Lowest Central Pressure (LCP) of 919 hPa and the MSWS of 70 ms-1 based on 0000 UTC of 26 April. Except for the model run based on 0000 UTC of 26 April, the simulated values of LCP are relatively higher than the observations. According to the statistical analysis, MSLP and MSWS at 850 hPa level demonstrate a significantly greater influence on Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation and intensification process than any other parameters. The model can predict the intensity features well enough, despite some uncertainty regarding the proper lead time of the model run. Reduced lead time model run, particularly 24 to 48 hr, can be chosen to forecast the genesis and intensification events of TC with minimum uncertainty. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 85-100

Internal tides off the Amazon shelf during two contrasted seasons: Interactions with background circulation and SSH imprints

The Amazon shelf break is a key region for internal tides (IT) generation. The region also shows a large seasonal variation of circulation and associated stratification. The objective of this study is to document how these variations will impact IT generation and propagation properties. A high-resolution regional model (1/36° horizontal resolution), explicitly resolving IT is analyzed to investigate their interactions with the background circulation and stratification, over two seasons: first MAMJJ (March to July), with weaker mesoscale currents, shallower and stronger pycnocline, and second ASOND (August to December) with stronger mesoscale currents, deeper and weaker pycnocline. IT are generated on the shelf break between the 100 and 1800 m isobaths, with a maximum on average at about 10 km offshore. South of 2° N, the conversion from barotropic to baroclinic tide is more efficient in MAMJJ than in ASOND. At the eight main IT generations sites, the local dissipation is higher in MAMJJ (30 %) than in ASOND (22 %). The remaining fraction propagates away from the generation sites and mainly dissipates locally every 90–120 km. The remote dissipation increases slightly during ASOND and the coherent M2 fluxes seem blocked between 4°–6° N west of 47° W. Further analysis of 25 hours mean snapshots of the baroclinic flux shows deviation and branching of the IT when interacting with strong mesoscale and stratification. We evaluated sea surface height (SSH) frequency and wavenumber spectra for subtidal (f < 1/28h−1), tidal (1/28h−1 < f < 1/11h−1) and super tidal (f > 1/11h−1) frequencies. Tidal frequencies explain most of the SSH variability for wavelengths between 300 km and 70 km. Below 70 km, the SSH is mainly incoherent and supertidal. The length scale at which the SSH becomes dominated by unbalanced IT was estimated to be around 250 km. Our results highlight the complexity of correctly predicting IT SSH in order to better observe mesoscale and submesoscale from existing and upcoming altmetrics missions, notably the Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission.

New sampling strategy mitigates a solar-geometry-induced bias in sub-kilometre vapour scaling statistics derived from imaging spectroscopy

Upcoming spaceborne imaging spectrometers will retrieve clear-sky total column water vapour (TCWV) over land at a horizontal resolution of 30–80 m. Here we show how to obtain, from these retrievals, exponents describing the power-law scaling of sub-kilometre horizontal variability in clear-sky bulk planetary boundary layer (PBL) water vapour (q) accounting for realistic non-vertical sunlight paths. We trace direct solar beam paths through large eddy simulations (LES) of shallow convective PBLs and show that retrieved 2-D water vapour fields are “smeared” in the direction of the solar azimuth. This changes the horizontal spatial scaling of the field primarily in that direction, and we address this by calculating exponents perpendicular to the solar azimuth, that is to say flying “across” the sunlight path rather than “towards” or “away” from the Sun. Across 23 LES snapshots, at solar zenith angle SZA = 60∘ the mean bias in calculated exponent is 38 ± 12 % (95 % range) along the solar azimuth, while following our strategy it is 3 ± 9 % and no longer significant. Both bias and root-mean-square error decrease with lower SZA. We include retrieval errors from several sources, including (1) the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) instrument noise model, (2) requisite assumptions about the atmospheric thermodynamic profile, and (3) spatially nonuniform aerosol distributions. By only considering the direct beam, we neglect 3-D radiative effects such as light scattered into the field of view by nearby clouds. However, our proposed technique is necessary to counteract the direct-path effect of solar geometries and obtain unique information about sub-kilometre PBL q scaling from upcoming spaceborne spectrometer missions.

Observed and Modeled Mountain Waves from the Surface to the Mesosphere Near the Drake Passage

Four state-of-the-science numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were used to perform mountain wave- (MW) resolving hind-casts over the Drake Passage of a 10-day period in 2010 with numerous observed MW cases. The Integrated Forecast System (IFS) and the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model were run at Δx ≈ 9 and 13 km globally. TheWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Met Office Unified Model (UM) were both configured with a Δx = 3 km regional domain. All domains had tops near 1 Pa (z ≈ 80 km). These deep domains allowed quantitative validation against Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) observations, accounting for observation time, viewing geometry, and radiative transfer. All models reproduced observed middle-atmosphere MWs with remarkable skill. Increased horizontal resolution improved validations. Still, all models underrepresented observed MW amplitudes, even after accounting for model effective resolution and instrument noise, suggesting even at Δx ≈ 3 km resolution, small-scale MWs are under-resolved and/or over-diffused. MWdrag parameterizations are still necessary in NWP models at current operational resolutions of Δx ≈ 10 km. Upper GW sponge layers in the operationally configured models significantly, artificially reduced MW amplitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. In the IFS, parameterized GW drags partly compensated this deficiency, but still, total drags were ≈ 6 time smaller than that resolved at Δx ≈ 3 km. Meridionally propagating MWs significantly enhance zonal drag over the Drake Passage. Interestingly, drag associated with meridional fluxes of zonal momentum (i.e. ) were important; not accounting for these terms results in a drag in the wrong direction at and below the polar night jet.

Modeling the Climate Suitability of Northernmost Mangroves in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Mangroves are important wetland ecosystems on tropical and subtropical coasts. There is an urgent need to better understand how the spatial distribution of mangroves varies with climate change factors. Species distribution models can be used to reveal the spatial change of mangroves; however, global models typically have a horizontal resolution of hundreds of kilometers and more than 1 km, even after downscaling. In the present study, a maximum entropy model was used to predict suitable areas for the northernmost mangroves in China in the 2050s. An approach was proposed to improve the resolution and credibility of suitability predictions by incorporating land-use potential. Predictions were made based on two CMIP6 scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the northern edge of the natural mangrove distribution in China would migrate from 27.20° N to 27.39° N–28.15° N, and the total extent of suitable mangrove habitats would expand. By integrating 30 m resolution land-use data to refine the model’s predictions, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the suitable habitats of mangroves are predicted to be 13,435 ha, which would increase by 33.9% compared with the current scenario. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable area would be 23,120 ha, with an increased rate of 96.5%. Approximately 40–44% of the simulated mangrove patches would be adjacent to aquacultural ponds, cultivated, and artificial land, which may restrict mangrove expansion. Collectively, our results showed how climate change and land use could influence mangrove distributions, providing a scientific basis for adaptive mangrove habitat management despite climate change.

A Fine Grid Tide-Wave-Ocean Circulation Coupled Model for the Yellow Sea: Comparison of Turbulence Closure Schemes in Reproducing Temperature Distributions

The performance of three turbulence closure schemes (TCSs), the generic length scale scheme (GLS), the Mellor–Yamada 2.5 scheme (MY2.5) and the K-profile parameterization scheme (KPP), embedded in the ocean model ROMS, was compared with attention to the reproduction of summertime temperature distribution in the Yellow Sea. The ROMS model has a horizontal resolution of 1/30° and 30 vertical sigma layers. For model validation, root mean square errors were checked, comparing model results with wave and temperature buoy data as well as tidal station data supplied by various organizations within the Republic of Korea. Computed temperature and vertical temperature diffusion coefficients were mainly compared along Lines A (36° N) and B (125° E) crossing the central Yellow Sea, Lines C (32° N) and E (34° N) passing over the Yangtze Bank and Line D off the Taean Peninsula. Calculations showed that GLS and MY2.5 produced vertical mixing stronger than KPP in both the surface and bottom layers, but the overall results were reasonably close to each other. The lack of observational data was a hindrance in comparing the detailed performance between the TCSs. However, it was noted that the simulation capability of cold patches in the tidal mixing front can be useful in identifying the better performing turbulence closure scheme. GLS and MY2.5 clearly produced the cold patch located near the western end of Line E (122° E–122.3° E), while KPP hardly produced its presence. Similar results were obtained along Line D but with a less pronounced tidal mixing front. Along Line C, GLS and MY2.5 produced a cold patch on the western slope of the Yellow Sea, the presence of which had never been reported. Additional measurements near 125° E–126° E of Line C and along the channel off the Taean Peninsula (Line D) are recommended to ensure the relative performance superiority between the TCSs.

Simulation of winter and summer climates with PRL Atmospheric General Circulation Model

A global, spectral Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) has been developed indigenously at Physical Research Laboratory (PRL) for climate studies. The model has six a levels in the vertical and has horizontal resolution of 21 waves with rhomboidal truncation. The model includes smooth topography, planetary boundary layer, deep convection, large scale condensation, interactive hydrology, radiation with interactive clouds and diurnal cycle. Sea surface temperature and sea ice values were fixed based on climatological data for different calender months. The model was integrated for six years starting with an isothermal atmosphere (2400K), zero winds initial conditions and forcing from incoming solar radiation. After one year the model stabilizes. The seasonal averages of various fields of the last five years are discussed in this paper. It is found that the model reproduces reasonably well the seasonal features of atmospheric circulation, seasonal variability and hemispheric differences.

Summertime M2 Internal Tides in the Northern Yellow Sea

The summertime M2 internal tide in the northern Yellow Sea is investigated with moored current meter observations and numerical current model results. The hydrodynamic model, which is implemented from the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) with 1 km horizontal resolution, is capable of resolving the internal tidal dynamics and the results are validated in a comparison with observations. The vertical pattern of a mode-1, semi-diurnal internal tide is clearly captured by the moored ADCP as well as in the simulation results. Spectral analysis of the current results shows that the M2 internal tide is dominant in the northern Yellow Sea. Analysis of the major M2 internal tide energetics demonstrated a complex spatial pattern. The tidal mixing front along the Korean coast and on the northern shelf provided proper conditions for the generation and propagation of the internal tides. Near the Changshan islands, the M2 internal tide is mainly generated near the local topography anomalies with relatively strong current magnitude, equal to about 30% of the barotropic component, thus modifying the local current field. These local internal tides are short-lived phenomena rapidly being dissipated along the propagation pathway, restricting their influence within a few kilometers around the islands.

Internal gravity wave detection in high-resolution model data

&lt;p&gt;Internal gravity waves (GWs) are ubiquitous in the atmosphere, affecting momentum and energy budgets. However, our understanding of GW effects is still incomplete. As they act on various spatial and temporal scales, global observations of GWs face several difficulties and their parametrizations in climate models employ numerous simplifications and are only poorly constrained. Also, GW analyses in high-resolution datasets contain some uncertainty that we aim to quantify and minimize in our research. We study the uncertainty for a Gaussian high-pass filter method applied on a WRF simulation with horizontal resolution of 3 km covering a domain around the Drake Passage and ranging up to the altitude of 80 km. We show that the momentum flux and drag estimates evaluated by the filtering method are sensitive to the value of a cut-off parameter, especially the horizontal drag components. This motivates us to formulate a new, modified filtering method for GW detection that sets an optimal value of the cut-off parameter at each step based on the spectral information &amp;#8211; the method uses a wavelength identified in the horizontal spectrum of kinetic energy. Finally, we note that the type of a response function in the high-pass filter definition also impacts the resulting estimates.&lt;/p&gt;