The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Haiyan Teng ◽  
Antonietta Capotondi ◽  
Aixue Hu
Keyword(s):  
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation ◽  
Decadal Timescale ◽  
Enso Events

The North Pacific Pacemaker Effect on Historical ENSO and Its Mechanisms

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7643-7661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dillon J. Amaya ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Wenyu Zhou ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Studies have indicated that North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability can significantly modulate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but there has been little effort to put extratropical–tropical interactions into the context of historical events. To quantify the role of the North Pacific in pacing the timing and magnitude of observed ENSO, we use a fully coupled climate model to produce an ensemble of North Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (nPOGA) SST pacemaker simulations. In nPOGA, SST anomalies are restored back to observations in the North Pacific (>15°N) but are free to evolve throughout the rest of the globe. We find that the North Pacific SST has significantly influenced observed ENSO variability, accounting for approximately 15% of the total variance in boreal fall and winter. The connection between the North and tropical Pacific arises from two physical pathways: 1) a wind–evaporation–SST (WES) propagating mechanism, and 2) a Gill-like atmospheric response associated with anomalous deep convection in boreal summer and fall, which we refer to as the summer deep convection (SDC) response. The SDC response accounts for 25% of the observed zonal wind variability around the equatorial date line. On an event-by-event basis, nPOGA most closely reproduces the 2014/15 and the 2015/16 El Niños. In particular, we show that the 2015 Pacific meridional mode event increased wind forcing along the equator by 20%, potentially contributing to the extreme nature of the 2015/16 El Niño. Our results illustrate the significant role of extratropical noise in pacing the initiation and magnitude of ENSO events and may improve the predictability of ENSO on seasonal time scales.

scholarly journals PDO–ENSO Effects in the Climate of Mexico

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (24) ◽  
pp. 6433-6438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgar G. Pavia ◽  
Federico Graef ◽  
Jorge Reyes
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract The role of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Mexican climate anomalies during winter and summer is investigated. The precipitation and mean temperature data of approximately 1000 stations throughout Mexico are considered. After sorting ENSO events by warm phase (El Niño) and cold phase (La Niña) and prevailing PDO phase: warm or high (HiPDO) and cold or low (LoPDO), the authors found the following: 1) For precipitation, El Niño favors wet conditions during summers of LoPDO and during winters of HiPDO. 2) For mean temperature, cooler conditions are favored during La Niña summers and during El Niño winters, regardless of the PDO phase; however, warmer conditions are favored by the HiPDO during El Niño summers.

The Role of the Ocean in Midlatitude, Interannual-to-Decadal-Timescale Climate Variability of a Coupled Model

2001 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 3617-3630 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. S. Drijfhout ◽  
A. Kattenberg ◽  
R. J. Haarsma ◽  
F. M. Selten
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Decadal Timescale

scholarly journals Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Dong ◽  
L. Ruby Leung ◽  
Fengfei Song ◽  
Jian Lu
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation ◽  
The North ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Precipitation Changes

AbstractMarked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

scholarly journals Changes in Tropical Pacific Thermocline Depth and Their Relationship to ENSO after 1999

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (19) ◽  
pp. 7230-7249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caihong Wen ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Yan Xue ◽  
M. J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Equatorial Thermocline ◽  
Good Precursor

Abstract The characteristics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability have experienced notable changes since the late 1990s, including a breakdown of the zonal mean upper-ocean heat content as a precursor for ENSO. These changes also initiated a debate on the role of thermocline variations on the development of ENSO events since the beginning of the twenty-first century. In this study, the connection between thermocline variations and El Niño and La Niña events is examined separately for the 1980–98 and 1999–2012 periods. The analysis highlights the important role of thermocline variations in modulating ENSO evolutions in both periods. It is found that thermocline variation averaged in the central tropical Pacific, including both equatorial and off-equatorial regions, is a good precursor for ENSO evolutions before and after 1999, while the traditional basinwide mean of equatorial thermocline variation is a good precursor only before 1999. The new precursor, including both high-frequency variability in equatorial regions and low-frequency variability in off-equatorial regions, is found to be indicative of multiyear persistent warm and cold conditions in the tropical Pacific. Further, it is found that the strength of the subtropical cells (STCs) interior mass transport in both hemispheres increased rapidly around the late 1990s. It is proposed that the strengthened STC interior transports provide a pathway for the enhanced influence of off-equatorial thermocline variations on the development of ENSO events after 1999.

Geoarchaeological evidence for multidecadal natural climatic variability and ancient Peruvian fisheries

2004 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 330-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel H. Sandweiss ◽  
Kirk A. Maasch ◽  
Fei Chai ◽  
C.Fred T. Andrus ◽  
Elizabeth J. Reitz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Pacific Basin ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Archaeological Data ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Peruvian Coast

Understanding the influence of natural climatic variability on modern fisheries is complicated by over a century of industrial fishing. Archaeological data provide unique opportunities for assessing precolonial and preindustrial fisheries. Records show that anchoveta-vs sardine-dominated fisheries correlate with 20th-century climate change in the Pacific Basin and are linked to multidecadal climatic variability. The “anchovy regime” is characterized by cooler conditions and lower frequency El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, while the “sardine regime” is associated with warmer conditions and higher frequency ENSO. Fish remains excavated at Lo Demás, an Inca-period (ca. A.D. 1480–1540) fishing site at 13°25′S on the Peruvian coast, document a shift from an anchoveta-to a sardine-dominated fishery at about A.D. 1500. This shift correlates with records for increasing ENSO frequency at the same time. Middle and late Holocene sites have archaeofish assemblages that also suggest regime changes. Here we show that changes in fish regimes can result from natural variability and we support the potential role of archaeological assemblages in tracking multidecadal climate change in the Pacific Basin throughout the Holocene (0–11,500 cal yr B.P.).

scholarly journals Assessment of paleo-ocean pH records from boron isotope ratio in the Pacific and Atlantic ocean corals: Role of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> forcing and oceanographic factors to pH variability

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Tarique ◽  
Waliur Rahaman
Keyword(s):  
Coral Bleaching ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Boron Isotope ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Instrumental Records

Abstract. Boron isotopes (δ11B) records from tropical ocean corals have been used to reconstruct paleo-pH of ocean for the past several decades to few centuries which are comparable to the resolution of instrumental records. In most of the studies, attempts have been made to decipher the role of anthropogenic CO2 forcing to recent trend of ocean acidification based on δ11B derived paleo-pH records. However, such attempts in past were often hindered by limited knowledge of oceanographic factors that contributed to past pH variability and changes. In this study, we have evaluated pH records reconstructed using δ11B records from the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans corals and investigated major forcing factors that contributed to sub annual-decadal scale pH variability and changes since the industrial era ~ 1850 AD. To the best of our knowledge, total eight δ11B records from the Pacific and two from the Atlantic Oceans are available in published literatures. The compilations of these records show large variability; range between 26.27–20.82 ‰ which corresponds to pH range 8.40–7.63 respectively. Our investigation of pH records from the Pacific ocean based on principal component analysis (PCA) reveals that atmospheric CO2 can explains maximum up to ~ 26 % of the total pH variability during 1950–2004 AD, followed by the ocean-climate oscillations (i.e. ENSO and PDO) driven oceanographic factors up to ~ 17 %. The remaining large variability (~ 57 %) could not be explained by above forcing factors and hence we invoke possible influence of metabolic processes of corals and/or changes in micro-environments within the reefs which are often neglected in interpreting paleo-pH records. Therefore, we highlight the need for detailed investigation in future studies to understand about the exact mechanism, processes/factors that controlled boron isotope fractionations in coral reef environments. Further, our investigation reveals that amplitude of the ENSO driven pH variability shows fivefold increase during 1980–2000 AD compared to the previous three decades (1950–1980 AD). This observation is consistent with the historical records of global coral bleaching events and therefore underscores role of ENSO driven environmental stress responsible for coral bleaching events. Considering model based projections of increasing frequency and amplitude of extreme ENSO events in the backdrop of recent global warming, bleaching events are likely to increase in the next decades/centuries.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document