Late monsoon threatens coral refugia in the Andaman Sea

Internal waves (IWs) mitigate thermal stress and provide refugia for corals against increasingly frequent mass bleaching. However, climate events may bring uncertainty regarding the resistance of such refugia. Here, using in situ observation data in the Andaman Sea (AS), we conduct a case study in which a monsoon anomaly associated with El Niño event threatens IW coral refugia. IW cooling in the AS coral reefs is modulated by the thermocline depth variation, which is significantly driven by Kelvin wave signals from the equator. In premonsoon period, distinct variations in IW cooling and surface heating form a time window of quickly-growing cumulative heat exposure. The El Niño induces a typical 2-week delayed summer monsoon, which prolongs the duration of thermal stress growth and brings severe bleaching risk to corals. As global warming increases the frequency of extreme El Niño events, IW coral refugia will face great challenges in the future.

Multi-column modelling of lake Geneva for climate applications

The interaction between large inland water bodies and the atmosphere impacts the evolution of regional weather and climate, which in turn affects the lake dynamics, thermodynamics, ice-formation, and, therefore, ecosystems. Over the last decades, various approaches have been used to model lake thermodynamics and dynamics in standalone mode or coupled to numerical atmospheric models. We assess a turbulence-closure $$k-\epsilon$$ k - ϵ multi-column lake model in standalone mode as a computationally-efficient alternative to a full three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in the case of Lake Geneva. While it struggles to reproduce some short-term features, the multi-column model reasonably reproduces the seasonal mean of the thermal horizontal and vertical structures governing heat and mass exchanges between the lake surface and the lower atmosphere (stratified period, thermocline depth, stability of the water column). As it requires typically two orders of magnitude less computational ressources, it may allow a two-way coupling with a RCM on timescales or spatial resolutions where full 3D lake models are too demanding.

Microfossil as proxy for palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography

Recent global warming has been addressed due to human activity that causes increased greenhouse gases. However, there are inherent uncertainties in the statement, one of them is the level of natural variability inherent in the climate system. Climate data from measuring instruments are not long enough to evaluate climate variability and current climate evolution. Therefore, we need climate data that has a long back span. To get adequate past climate data, we need natural phenomena which are climate dependent. This natural phenomenon provides a proxy record of the climate. This study of proxy data is the foundation of palaeoclimatology and paleoceanography. Microfossils (i.e., foraminifera, palynomorphs, nannofossils) which in geology are used as a standard tool in biostratigraphy for both age determination and paleoenvironment and correlation, can also be used as a proxy for obtaining paleoclimate and paleoceanography data. Using microfossil as a proxy to study past climate and paleoceanography, we need an understanding of the type of proxy data available and methods used in their analysis.In addition to the dating method (biostratigraphy), there are many climate and oceanography parameters that can be obtained from microfossil proxies such as: sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity, (SST) climate (warm, cold, dry, wet), precipitation, productivity, oxygen content and organic carbon level, deep sea current and ventilation/upwelling, thermocline and mixed layer, variability deep water properties, CCD, bathymetry, sea level change and dissolution. The methods to obtain data fall into some categories e.g., faunal/floral displacement, morphology changes, transfer function/modern analog and isotopic content. Another method that can be used is observing microfossil assemblages and link them to ecological changes associated with climate change and its paleoceanography.A paleoclimate and paleoceanography study using microfossil proxies has been conducted in the Cendrawasih bay, Papua, Indonesia. The study shows that climate in the tropical west Pacific margin (Cendrawasih bay) during Late Pleistocene to Holocene shows high variability. There are nineteen climate changes occurred during Holocene. Early Holocene dated as ca. 11,800-year BP marked by rapid warming with SST differences to last glacial is about 4oC. Early to Middle Holocene (ca. 5960-year BP) marked by increasing temperature up to 2oC, interrupted by cooling at ca. 11230-, 8310- and 7120-years BP. At Middle Holocene temperature decreased rapidly and reached its peak at around ca. 3150-year BP. After cooling at ca. 3150-year BP, temperature increased and then decreased with its peak at ca. 1710-year BP. Since ca. 1710-year BP to Recent, temperature shows warming trend. SST from MAT indicates warming environment near to 1.5oC. The warming trend was interrupted by rapid cooling and warming at ca. 300-year BP. This last warming trend indicates that global warming had started before industrial era and rapid cooling, or warming can occur without anthropogenic gases influence. The typical Holocene climate of warm-wet, dry-cold reverse and become warm-dry, cold-wet during ca. 790-370-year BP and then reversed back to preceding state.Semi-restricted basin occurred since last glacial with anaerobic condition and estuarine circulation system. Warming during interstadial 1e-1a, causing reverse water circulation and basin become sub-aerobic with anti-estuarine circulation. A lot of terrestrial organic matter flow to the bay and increase acidity and carbonate dissolution. High sedimentation found occurred during glacial period especially at the end of glacial period. Rapid warming during late glacial to middle Holocene, rising relative sea level and the bay become more open marine with well oxygenated bottom water and high marine productivity. Warm temperature and deeper thermocline depth (~ 250 m) in west Pacific occurred up to ca. 5960-year BP. Decreasing Sea surface temperature at ca. 5960-year BP and drop of relative sea level causing sub-aerobic condition inside bay. The semi-restricted state with sub-aerobic condition occurred up to Recent.Distribution of Sphaeroidinella group in the tropical west Pacific shows strong correlation with thermocline depth and reflect El Niño frequency event. Early middle Holocene dominated by La Niña-like condition and since Middle Holocene (ca. 5960-year BP) frequent El Niño event began to occur.

Two Different Descriptions of a Thermocline in the Persian Gulf

The Persian Gulf (PG) is a shallow sea connected to the rest of the world by the Strait of Hormuz. Temperature changes in the water column, which indicate the thermocline, are typically explained by the depth of the mixed layer and the thermocline. The thermocline is caused by a sudden decrease in temperature in the water column's subsurface layer, resulting in stratification in the PG from winter to summer. The parameters are approximated numerically through the Princeton Ocean Modeling (POM) method and compared to those determined by some CTD profiles collected in the PG. The most obvious method for approximating thermocline depth is to find the maximum negative slope \(\frac{\partial T}{\partial z}\) in a temperature profile. The method produces applied results with sufficient depth resolution and smooth temperature changes with depth. This method is a component of the Princeton Ocean Modeling (POM) framework for numerically modeling temperature variation in the water basins used in this study. The depth of the mixed layer is approximated by the surface equality temperature (Sea Surface Temperature), regardless of the thermocline approximation. The variable isotherm behavior accurately approximates the thermocline depth. Thermocline formation occurs in the PG during the summer, and this article will conclude using two methods, observational and numerical modeling.

Fast local warming is the main driver of recent deoxygenation in the northern Arabian Sea

The Arabian Sea (AS) hosts one of the most intense oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in the world. Observations suggest a decline in O2 in the northern AS over the recent decades accompanied by an intensification of the suboxic conditions there. Over the same period, the local sea surface temperature has risen significantly, particularly over the Arabian Gulf (also known as Persian Gulf, hereafter the Gulf), while summer monsoon winds may have intensified. Here, we simulate the evolution of dissolved oxygen in the AS from 1982 through 2010 and explore its controlling factors, with a focus on changing atmospheric conditions. To this end, we use a set of eddy-resolving hindcast simulations forced with winds and heat and freshwater fluxes from an atmospheric reanalysis. We find a significant deoxygenation in the northern AS, with O2 inventories north of 20∘ N dropping by over 6 % per decade between 100 and 1000 m. These changes cause an expansion of the OMZ volume north of 20∘ N at a rate of 0.6 % per decade as well as an increase in the volume of suboxia and the rate of denitrification by 14 and 15 % per decade, respectively. We also show that strong interannual and decadal variability modulate dissolved oxygen in the northern AS, with most of the O2 decline taking place in the 1980s and 1990s. Using a set of sensitivity simulations we demonstrate that deoxygenation in the northern AS is essentially caused by reduced ventilation induced by the recent fast warming of the sea surface, including in the Gulf, with a contribution from concomitant summer monsoon wind intensification. This is because, on the one hand, surface warming enhances vertical stratification and increases Gulf water buoyancy, thus inhibiting vertical mixing and ventilation of the thermocline. On the other hand, summer monsoon wind intensification causes a rise in the thermocline depth in the northern AS that lowers O2 levels in the upper ocean. Our findings confirm that the AS OMZ is strongly sensitive to upper-ocean warming and concurrent changes in the Indian monsoon winds. Finally, our results also demonstrate that changes in the local climatic forcing play a key role in regional dissolved oxygen changes and hence need to be properly represented in global models to reduce uncertainties in future projections of deoxygenation.

Episodic subduction patches in the western North Pacific identified from BGC-Argo float data

Subduction associated with mesoscale eddies is an important but difficult-to-observe process that can efficiently export carbon and oxygen to the mesopelagic zone (100–1000 dbar). Using a novel BGC-Argo dataset covering the western North Pacific (20–50∘ N, 120–180∘ E), we identified imprints of episodic subduction using anomalies in dissolved oxygen and spicity, a water mass marker. These subduction patches were present in 4.0 % (288) of the total profiles (7120) between 2008 and 2019, situated mainly in the Kuroshio Extension region between March and August (70.6 %). Roughly 31 % and 42 % of the subduction patches were identified below the annual permanent pycnocline depth (300 m vs. 450 m) in the subpolar and subtropical regions, respectively. Around half (52 %) of these episodic events injected oxygen-enriched waters below the maximum annual permanent thermocline depth (450 dbar), with >20 % occurring deeper than 600 dbar. Subduction patches were detected during winter and spring when mixed layers are deep. The oxygen inventory within these subductions is estimated to be on the order of 64 to 152 g O2/m2. These mesoscale events would markedly increase oxygen ventilation as well as carbon removal in the region, both processes helping to support the nutritional and metabolic demands of mesopelagic organisms. Climate-driven patterns of increasing eddy kinetic energies in this region imply that the magnitude of these processes will grow in the future, meaning that these unexpectedly effective small-scale subduction processes need to be better constrained in global climate and biogeochemical models.

ENSO diversity shows robust decadal variations that must be captured for accurate future projections

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shows a large diversity of events that is modulated by climate variability and change. The representation of this diversity in climate models limits our ability to predict their impact on ecosystems and human livelihood. Here, we use multiple observational datasets to provide a probabilistic description of historical variations in event location and intensity, and to benchmark models, before examining future system trajectories. We find robust decadal variations in event intensities and locations in century-long observational datasets, which are associated with perturbations in equatorial wind-stress and thermocline depth, as well as extra-tropical anomalies in the North and South Pacific. Some climate models are capable of simulating such decadal variability in ENSO diversity, and the associated large-scale patterns. Projections of ENSO diversity in future climate change scenarios strongly depend on the magnitude of decadal variations, and the ability of climate models to reproduce them realistically over the 21st century.

Assessment of a Multi-column Deep Lake Model for Climate Applications: The Case of Lake Geneva

The interaction between large inland water bodies and the atmosphere impacts the evolution of regional weather and climate, which in turn affects the lake dynamics, thermodynamics, ice-formation, and, therefore, ecosystems. Over the last decades, various approaches have been used to model lake thermodynamics and dynamics in standalone mode or coupled to numerical atmospheric models. We assess a turbulence-closure k − ε multi-column lake model in standalone mode as a computationally-efficient alternative to a full three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in the case of Lake Geneva. While it struggles to reproduce some short-term features, the multi-column model reasonably reproduces the seasonal mean of the thermal horizontal and vertical structures governing heat and mass exchanges between the lake surface and the lower atmosphere (stratified period, thermocline depth, stability of the water column). It may therefore allow a two-way coupling with a RCM on timescales or spatial resolutions where full 3D lake models are too demanding in terms of computational resources.

The North Equatorial Countercurrent East of the Dateline, Its Variations, and Its Relationship to the El Niño Event

Using forty years (1978–2017) of Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ORAS4) dataset, the purpose of this study is to investigate the fluctuation of the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) to the east of the dateline in relation to the presence of three kinds of El Niño events. From spring (MAM) through summer (JJA), we found that the NECC was stronger during the Eastern Pacific El Niño (EP El Niño) and the MIX El Niño than during the Central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño). When it comes to winter (DJF), on the other hand, the NECC was stronger during the CP and MIX El Niño and weaker during the EP El Niño. This NECC variability was affected by the fluctuations of thermocline depth near the equatorial Pacific. Moreover, we also found that the seasonal southward shift of the NECC occurred between winter and spring, but the shift was absent during the CP and MIX El Niño events. This meridional shift was strongly affected by the local wind stress.