scholarly journals Contextual contact tracing based on stochastic compartment modeling and spatial risk assessment

Author(s):  
Mateen Mahmood ◽  
Jorge Mateu ◽  
Enrique Hernández-Orallo
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateen Mahmood ◽  
Jorge Mateu ◽  
Enrique Hernández Orallo

Abstract The current situation of COVID-19 highlights the paramount importance of infectious disease surveillance, which necessitates early monitoring for effective response. Policymakers are interested in data insights identifying high-risk areas as well as individuals to be quarantined, especially as the public gets back to their normal routine. We investigate both requirements by the implementation of disease outbreak modeling and exploring its induced dynamic spatial risk in form of risk assessment, along with its real-time integration back into the disease model. This paper implements a contact tracing-based stochastic compartment model as a baseline, to further modify the existing setup to include the spatial risk. This modification of each individual-level contact's intensity to be dependent on its spatial location has been termed as Contextual Contact Tracing. The results highlight that the inclusion of spatial context tends to send more individuals into quarantine which reduces the overall spread of infection. With a simulated example of an induced spatial high-risk, it is highlighted that the new spatio-SIR model can act as a tool to empower the analyst with a capability to explore disease dynamics from a spatial perspective. We conclude that the proposed spatio-SIR tool can be of great help for policymakers to know the consequences of their decision prior to their implementation.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xun Zhang ◽  
Min Jin ◽  
Jingying Fu ◽  
Mengmeng Hao ◽  
Chongchong Yu ◽  
...  

Terrorism has wreaked havoc on today’s society and people. The discovery of the regularity of terrorist attacks is of great significance to the global counterterrorism strategy. In this study, we improve the traditional location recommendation algorithm coupled with multi-source factors and spatial characteristics. We used the data of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia from 1970 to 2016, and comprehensively considered 17 influencing factors, including socioeconomic and natural resource factors. The improved recommendation algorithm is used to build a spatial risk assessment model of terrorist attacks, and the effectiveness is tested. The model trained in this study is tested with precision, recall, and F-Measure. The results show that, when the threshold is 0.4, the precision is as high as 88%, and the F-Measure is the highest. We assess the spatial risk of the terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia through experiments. It can be seen that the southernmost part of the Indochina peninsula and the Philippines are high-risk areas and that the medium-risk and high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the coastal areas. Therefore, future anti-terrorism measures should pay more attention to these areas.


2020 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 102358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wisdom M. Dlamini ◽  
Sabelo N. Dlamini ◽  
Sizwe D. Mabaso ◽  
Sabelo P. Simelane

2018 ◽  
Vol 639 ◽  
pp. 8-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yimei Zhang ◽  
Liqun Wang ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Yalong Zhao ◽  
Yuxian Lai ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2915 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Ledermüller ◽  
Marco Lorenz ◽  
Joachim Brunotte ◽  
Norbert Fröba

Soil compaction is a human-induced threat which negatively affects soil functions and is highly dependent on site-specific soil conditions and land use patterns. Proper management techniques are indispensable for sustainable soil protection to ensure its function in the long term. A number of concepts exist to develop risk maps on the basis of soil inherent susceptibility to compaction at a given soil moisture level (mostly field capacity). However, the real soil conditions, e.g., current soil moisture content at the time of field work and the real machinery load, are not taken into account. To bridge this gap, we present a multi-data approach for qualitative risk assessment, which combines spatially and temporally explicit data on soil, soil moisture, and land use information. The contributing components integrate daily probability distribution, including inter- and intra-annual variations in land use and weather. We combined soil susceptibility to compaction and field work for the federal state of Lower Saxony per half-months and identified three clusters with more or less compaction risk for Lower Saxony. In spring, mainly manure spreading to maize and in autumn harvesting of maize and sugar beets are contributing to the yearly probability of compaction risk in top soils. With the presented approach risk areas can be identified. For the evaluation of the current compaction risks, farm specifications on machinery and timing of field work must also be taken into account.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. e0225318
Author(s):  
Diana Perry ◽  
Linus Hammar ◽  
Hans W. Linderholm ◽  
Martin Gullström

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document