Long-term load forecasting: models based on MARS, ANN and LR methods

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 1033-1049 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gamze Nalcaci ◽  
Ayse Özmen ◽  
Gerhard Wilhelm Weber
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojuan Liu ◽  
Jian’an Fang

Load forecasting problem is a complex nonlinear problem linked with economic and weather factors. Long-term load forecasting provides useful information for maintenance scheduling, adequacy assessment, and limited energy resources for electrical power systems. Fuzzy time series forecasting models can be used for long-term load forecasting. However, the interval length has been chosen arbitrarily in the implementations of known fuzzy time series forecasting models, which has an important impact on the performance of these models. In this paper, a time-variant ratio multiobjective optimization fuzzy time series model (TV-RMOP) is proposed, and its performance is tested on the prediction of enrollment at the University of Alabama. Results clearly promote the forecasting accuracy as compared to the conventional models. A genetic algorithm is used to search for the length of intervals based on the training data while Pareto optimality theory provides the necessary conditions to identify an optimal one. The TV-RMOP model is applied for the long-term load forecasting in Shanghai of China.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 345
Author(s):  
Janusz Sowinski

Forecasting of daily loads is crucial for the Distribution System Operators (DSO). Contemporary short-term load forecasting models (STLF) are very well recognized and described in numerous articles. One of such models is the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), which requires a large set of historical data. A well-recognized issue both for the ANFIS and other daily load forecasting models is the selection of exogenous variables. This article attempts to verify the statement that an appropriate selection of exogenous variables of the ANFIS model affects the accuracy of the forecasts obtained ex post. This proposal seems to be a return to the roots of the Polish econometrics school and the use of the Hellwig method to select exogenous variables of the ANFIS model. In this context, it is also worth asking whether the use of the Hellwig method in conjunction with the ANFIS model makes it possible to investigate the significance of weather variables on the profile of the daily load in an energy company. The functioning of the ANFIS model was tested for some consumers exhibiting high load randomness located within the area under supervision of the examined power company. The load curves featuring seasonal variability and weekly similarity are suitable for forecasting with the ANFIS model. The Hellwig method has been used to select exogenous variables in the ANFIS model. The optimal set of variables has been determined on the basis of integral indicators of information capacity H. Including an additional variable, i.e., air temperature, has also been taken into consideration. Some results of ex post daily load forecast are presented.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Song Deng ◽  
Fulin Chen ◽  
Xia Dong ◽  
Guangwei Gao ◽  
Xindong Wu

Load forecasting in short term is very important to economic dispatch and safety assessment of power system. Although existing load forecasting in short-term algorithms have reached required forecast accuracy, most of the forecasting models are black boxes and cannot be constructed to display mathematical models. At the same time, because of the abnormal load caused by the failure of the load data collection device, time synchronization, and malicious tampering, the accuracy of the existing load forecasting models is greatly reduced. To address these problems, this article proposes a Short-Term Load Forecasting algorithm by using Improved Gene Expression Programming and Abnormal Load Recognition (STLF-IGEP_ALR). First, the Recognition algorithm of Abnormal Load based on Probability Distribution and Cross Validation is proposed. By analyzing the probability distribution of rows and columns in load data, and using the probability distribution of rows and columns for cross-validation, misjudgment of normal load in abnormal load data can be better solved. Second, by designing strategies for adaptive generation of population parameters, individual evolution of populations and dynamic adjustment of genetic operation probability, an Improved Gene Expression Programming based on Evolutionary Parameter Optimization is proposed. Finally, the experimental results on two real load datasets and one open load dataset show that compared with the existing abnormal data detection algorithms, the algorithm proposed in this article have higher advantages in missing detection rate, false detection rate and precision rate, and STLF-IGEP_ALR is superior to other short-term load forecasting algorithms in terms of the convergence speed, MAE, MAPE, RSME, and R 2 .


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