Forecasting Scrub Typhus Cases in Eight High-Risk Counties in China: Evaluation of Time-Series Model Performance

Scrub typhus (ST) is expanding its geographical distribution in China and in many regions worldwide raising significant public health concerns. Accurate ST time-series modeling including uncovering the role of environmental determinants is of great importance to guide disease control purposes. This study evaluated the performance of three competing time-series modeling approaches at forecasting ST cases during 2012–2020 in eight high-risk counties in China. We evaluated the performance of a seasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, a SARIMA model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX), and the long–short term memory (LSTM) model to depict temporal variations in ST cases. In our investigation, we considered eight environmental variables known to be associated with ST landscape epidemiology, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, sunshine duration, relative humidity, wind speed, and multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation index (MEI). The first 8-year data and the last year data were used to fit the models and forecast ST cases, respectively. Our results showed that the inclusion of exogenous variables in the SARIMAX model generally outperformed the SARIMA model. Our results also indicate that the role of exogenous variables with various temporal lags varies between counties, suggesting that ST cases are temporally non-stationary. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the approach to forecast ST cases needed to take into consideration local conditions in that time-series model performance differed between high-risk areas under investigation. Furthermore, the introduction of time-series models, especially LSTM, has enriched the ability of local public health authorities in ST high-risk areas to anticipate and respond to ST outbreaks, such as setting up an early warning system and forecasting ST precisely.

An Empirical Study on the Main Determinants of Recycling Plastic Waste in Tunisia

Over the past fifteen years, numerous policies for recycling and recovering waste have been implemented throughout the world. Tunisia is among the countries considering recycling as a sustainable development path. This empirical study aimed to investigate and examine the influence of financial determinants measured by the price of waste disposal (PDI), institutional determinants measured by the collection of waste (CW) and the number of drop-off recycling centers, and ordinance and demographic determinants measured by the population density and the recycling rate for plastic as a domestic waste based on a panel of 24 Tunisian governorates over the 2001–2020 period. It is concluded from the empirical findings that all exogenous variables except population density have a significant effect on the recycling rate.

THE EFFECT OF ANXIETY, CONFIDENCE, AND MOTIVATION ON THE PERFORMANCE OF NATIONAL VOLLEYBALL REFEREE PROVINCE OF NORTH SUMATRA

This study aims to determine whether there is a significant effect between the exogenous variables of anxiety, confidence, and motivation with the endogenous variables of the performance of referees on duty in North Sumatra Province. The population in this study is the National Referee of North Sumatra Province. The sampling technique used was the purposive sampling method in which the national referees selected were adjusted to the criteria determined by the researchers as many as 50 national referees from various levels. The research method used is the descriptive quantitative method. The results of the data analysis carried out showed that 1) There was a significant influence between anxiety on the referee's performance of 0.854 or 73.7%, 2) There was a significant influence between self-confidence on the referee's performance of 0.842 or 70.9%, 3) There was a significant effect of a significant difference between motivation on the performance of the referee is 0.744 or 55.3%, 4) There is a significant effect between anxiety on the motivation of 0.841 or 70.8%, 5) There is a significant influence between self-confidence and motivation of 0.851 or 72.5 %, 6) There is a significant effect between anxiety through motivation on referee performance by 0.744 or 55.3%, 7) There is a significant effect between self-confidence through motivation on referee performance by 0.879 or 77.3%. The data collection technique in this study used a questionnaire instrument method in the form of statements on a Likert scale that had been validated by experts. So it can be concluded that several internal and external factors can affect the performance of the referee in leading the match such as anxiety, confidence, and motivation. Suggestions for the referee to be able to optimize the psychological condition before leading the game, to maximize the task of leading the match.

THE EFFECT OF BALANCE, CONCENTRATION, AND COORDINATION ON DOLLYO CHAGI KICK SKILLS IN POPB TAEKWONDO ATHLETES IN DKI JAKARTA

The aim of this research was to determine the direct and indirect effect as well as the simultaneous effect of exogenous variables with endogenous variables. The research method used was an associative quantitative approach using test and measurement techniques. The data analysis technique used was a path analysis approach. The population in this research was all of POPB DKI Jakarta athletes in 2021 totaling 20 people. The sampling technique used was total sampling so that the number of samples in this research was 20 people consisting of 10 women and 10 men. The skills of Dollyo Chagi Kick Taekwondo used the Dollyo Chagi Kick skills test. The balance used a modified bass test. The concentration used a concentration grid test. The instrument of eye-foot coordination used a smart speed pro coordination test. The results showed that the direct effect of variable X1 on Y = 0,243. The direct effect of variable X2 on Y = 0,567. The direct effect of variable X3 on Y = 0,378. The direct effect of variable X1 on X3 = 0,706. The direct effect of variable X2 on X3 = 0,297. The indirect effect of variable X1 on Y through X3 = 0,706 x 0,378 = 0,267. The indirect effect of variable X2 on Y through X3 = 0,297 x 0,378 = 0,113.

PERSONALITY TRAITS IN THE INTEGRATION OF DISCIPLINE AND CREATIVITY

L.Ya. Dorfman's concept of discipline and K. Martindale's theory of creativity are considered as integrated ones. The mediators between them were personality traits in the theory of H. Eysenck. To measure social discipline, self-discipline, general discipline we used "Discipline Questionnaire" by V.P. Pryadein and L.Ya. Dorfman; creativity - "Unusual Use" test adapted by I.S. Averina and E.I. Shcheblanova; personality traits - H. Eysenck and S.B.H. Eysenck’s questionnaire. We studied cross-theoretical and empirical models of integration as applied to discipline and creativity through extraversion, neuroticism and psychoticism. Empirical models served as mediator models (path analysis), which included the structural components of discipline (general and social discipline, self-discipline) as exogenous variables. Variables of extraversion, neuroticism, and psychoticism were considered as mediators; creativity with components as an endogenous variable. The study involved 243 junior cadets of the Perm Institute of the National Guard of Russia, young men, aged from 17 to 22 (M = 18.60, SD = 0.94). The obtained results indicate that psychoticism integrates general and social discipline with creativity, and extraversion integrates general discipline with creativity. The dual mechanisms, namely disinhibition (impulsivity) and inhibition (restraint), are assumed to be the basis of the results obtained.

Forecasting Reservoir Water Levels Using Deep Neural Networks: A Case Study of Angat Dam in the Philippines

Forecasting reservoir water levels is essential in water supply management, impacting both operations and intervention strategies. This paper examines the short-term and long-term forecasting performance of several statistical and machine learning-based methods for predicting the water levels of the Angat Dam in the Philippines. A total of six forecasting methods are compared: naïve/persistence; seasonal mean; autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA); gradient boosting machines (GBM); and two deep neural networks (DNN) using a long short-term memory-based (LSTM) encoder-decoder architecture: a univariate model (DNN-U) and a multivariate model (DNN-M). Daily historical water levels from 2001 to 2021 are used in predicting future water levels. In addition, we include meteorological data (rainfall and the Oceanic Niño Index) and irrigation data as exogenous variables. To evaluate the forecast accuracy of our methods, we use a time series cross-validation approach to establish a more robust estimate of the error statistics. Our results show that our DNN-U model has the best accuracy in the 1-day-ahead scenario with a mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.2 m. In the 30-day-, 90-day-, and 180-day-ahead scenarios, the DNN-M shows the best performance with MAE (RMSE) scores of 2.9 (3.3), 5.1 (6.0), and 6.7 (8.1) meters, respectively. Additionally, we demonstrate that further improvements in performance are possible by scanning over all possible combinations of the exogenous variables and only using a subset of them as features. In summary, we provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating water level forecasting by defining a baseline accuracy, analyzing performance across multiple prediction horizons, using time series cross-validation to assess accuracy and uncertainty, and examining the effects of exogenous variables on forecasting performance. In the process, our work addresses several notable gaps in the methodologies of previous works.

The Relevance of Language as a Predictor of the Will for Independence in Catalonia in 1996 and 2020

The Catalan secessionist parties, if added together, have won all the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia from 2010 to 2021. Their voters have been increasingly mobilized since the start of the controversial reform process of the Statute of Autonomy (2004–2010). The aim of this article is twofold. First, it intends to test whether language is the strongest predictor in preferring independence in two separate and distinct moments, 1996 and 2020. And second, to assess whether its strength has changed—and how—between both years. Only the most exogenous variables to the dependent variable are used in each of two logistic regressions to avoid problems of endogeneity: sex, age, size of town of residence, place of birth of the individual and of their parents, first language (L1), and educational level. Among them, L1 was—and still is—the most powerful predictor, although it is not entirely determinative. The secessionist movement not only gathers a plurality of Catalan native speakers, but it receives a not insignificant level of support among those who have Spanish as their L1. Conversely, the unionist group, despite being composed primarily by people who have Spanish as their L1 and have their family origins outside Catalonia, has a native Catalan-speaking minority inside. This imperfect division, which is based on ethnolinguistic alignments—and whose relevance cannot be neglected—alleviates the likelihood of an ethnic-based conflict.

A STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL ON MOTIVATION IN LANGUAGE LEARNING

The purpose of this study, to determine the most suitable model for motivation in language learning. It aims to ensure the significant relationship between the exogenous variable: writing strategy, study habits, classroom climate, and the endogenous variable in language learning motivation. In addition, non-experimental correlational research design and structural equation models to determine the most appropriate motivational model in motivation language learning. However, a stratified random sampling technique to select 436 participants from ninth-grade students from secondary public schools in Region XI. The following statistic used: mean, Pearson r, regression, and structural equation model (SEM). The exogenous variables have a significant correlation with endogenous variables that the fifth model adapted result of the study. In connection with, exogenous variables acquired a high descriptive level. The writing strategy includes planning, implementation, and revision; study habits include: time management, learning environment, forecasting skills and preparation, note-taking, reading skills, writing skills, and language skills; classroom climate includes: teacher support, student independence, interaction, and collaboration in class; and the endogenous variable acquired a high descriptive level of motivation in language learning that included: instrumental and integrative motivation. KEYWORDS: education, writing strategies, study habits, classroom climate, language learning motivation, structural model, Philippines

Dynamic Iteration Method: New Approach to Cultural Events Management

This article provides project managers, the cultural events organizers, a new approach to plan preparation and to the monitoring of events realization. The Dynamic Iteration Method introduced in this article is based on the system dynamic modelling and on the principles of project iterative development. The plan model and the reality model are structurally similar; they differ in values of exogenous variables. The new approach enables to easily monitor the real project course in close connection with the plan and to take timely controlling steps. The effects resulting from the manager´s decisionmaking process are compared with the plan in regular iterations. The method thus reminds of a traveller whose route is adjusted by a GPS navigation system.