scholarly journals Trade creation and trade diversion of economic integration agreements revisited: a constrained panel pseudo-maximum likelihood approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 156 (4) ◽  
pp. 985-1024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Pfaffermayr
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Functional Dependence ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Delta Method ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Approach ◽  
Likelihood Approach ◽  
Economic Integration Agreements ◽  
Cost Parameters ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood

Abstract For PPML estimation of high-dimensional structural gravity panel models it proves useful to exploit the equilibrium restrictions imposed by the system of multilateral resistances. The main advantage of this approach lies in the functional dependence of the parameters of all dummy variables on the structural trade cost parameters. Moreover, the delta method is used to establish confidence intervals of counterfactual changes. Using the constrained panel PPML estimator for a panel of 65 countries in the period 1994–2012 indicates significant trade creation of economic integration agreements with average ranging in between 12.2 and 30.3% in 2012. Results also point to substantial domestic and international trade diversion, where the former dominates the latter.

Diversion Effect of Economic Integration Agreements

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (5E) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Hoang Oanh ◽  
Duong Thi Thuy Linh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Hazard Rate ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Current Paper ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Economic Integration Agreements

Signing Economic Integration Agreements has proliferated during last three decades. A country signs more and more agreements. Owning the agreements not only generates trade creation but also trade diversion. The diversion effect of Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) on the probability of products survival and export growth in a market is found in current paper. Using the probit function for 149 countries in SITC 4-digit level from 1962 to 2000, we find the hazard rate of product ceasing increases if a country signs any other EIAs other than its partner (both importer and exporter), and the export growth decreases in the case of an importer owns any other EIA other than its partner.

India–European Union Trade Integration: An Analysis of Current and Future Trajectories

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 484-504
Author(s):  
Swetha Loganathan ◽  
Joshy Joseph Karakunnel ◽  
Vijay Victor
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Merchandise Export ◽  
Gravity Database ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood

In a dynamic global environment of increased economic interdependence, nations are more than ever seeking to remove barriers to trade, despite growing trends of protectionism. In this context, India and the EU-27 have initiated talks for the establishment of a Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) in an attempt to bring their economies together. However, after 16 rounds of negotiations, the failure to conclude this agreement has raised questions regarding the benefits of the agreement to India. This study attempts to examine the current trade scenario and the effects of the proposed regional trade agreement by estimating a structural gravity model. This study employs the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator for analysing the trade-creation and trade-diversion effects of the BTIA to overcome the shortcomings of ordinary least square (OLS) estimators. For the empirical analysis, the merchandise export data from the Gravity database has been taken for a period of 19 years from 2001 to 2019. The results indicate that the BTIA could lead to trade creation and trade diversion, highlighting the need for a re-evaluation of India’s trade policy. JEL Classification: F10, F13, F14, F15, O24

Trade Creation or Trade Diversion in ASEAN and ASEAN+6 FTAs: Trade Indicators Approach

2015 ◽  
pp. 25-41
Author(s):  
Anh Tu Thuy ◽  
Ngoc Le Minh
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Wheat Gluten ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

This paper makes use of two trade indicators, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Regional Orientation (RO), to evaluate the economic impacts of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (The) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on Vietnamese commodities at the Harmonized System (HS) 2-digit level. Several sectors in which Vietnam has revealed a comparative advantage, has benefited from the AFTA, and would continue to enjoy trade creation from the RCEP, are: Cereals (10), Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement (25), Rubber (40), Knitted or crocheted fabric (60), etc. More importantly, the result provides a list of commodities in which Vietnam has a comparative advantage and only experiences trade creation when participating in the RCEP. These are: Milling products, malt, starches, inulin, wheat gluten (11), Vegetable plaiting materials, vegetable products not elsewhere specified (14), Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal (44), etc. Findings also show commodities in which Vietnam has a comparative advantage; but are not well positioned in the RCEP market yet, e.g. Cereal, flour, starch, milk preparations and products (19) and Manmade staple fibres (55). If sufficient investment decisions and marketing strategies are applied to these commodities, they will well penetrate the RCEP market and bring trade creation and welfare improvement to Vietnam. Public and private investment should consider the above-mentioned commodities as targets to leapfrog the benefits of RCEP.

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