scholarly journals Climate and monetary policy: do temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures?

2021 ◽  
Vol 167 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Mukherjee ◽  
B. Ouattara
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Policy Variable ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
Global Surface

AbstractIn the race towards economic growth, increased pollutant emissions have spurred the rise in global surface temperatures, intensifying the process of climate change. While the existing literature on the economic impact of climate-related variables has looked at outcomes such as growth, income, fiscal response, and poverty, the effect of temperature shocks on inflation has largely been neglected. This paper is an attempt to fill this lacuna. Indeed, we analyze the dynamic impact of temperature shocks on inflation, a key policy variable of most central banks. We use a panel-VAR method with fixed-effects and a sample of developed and developing countries over the period 1961–2014. Our results suggest that temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures. Worryingly, and for developing countries in particular, we find that these effects persist several years after the initial shock. Our finding remained unaltered by various robustness checks. We show that these effects pose a threat to monetary policy making. We argue that central banks should pay more attention to temperature shocks.

Inflation Targeting and the IMF

Policy Papers ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 2006 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Technical Assistance ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework ◽  
The Imf

Inflation targeting is becoming the monetary policy framework of choice in a growing number of emerging market and developing countries. This paper examines the experience of non-industrial inflation targeting countries to review the implications for the Fund’s approach to surveillance, technical assistance, and the design of conditionality in Fund-supported programs. For this examination, the paper uses macroeconomic data, technical assistance reports, and a new survey of central banks in selected emerging markets.

scholarly journals Competing With Bitcoin - Some Policy Considerations for Issuing Digitalized Legal Tenders

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arto Kovanen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Policy Effectiveness ◽  
Rate Transmission ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
Monetary Policy Effectiveness ◽  
Financing Of Terrorism ◽  
The Impact

The proliferation of peer-to-peer virtual alternatives to traditional banknotes has raised concerns among policymakers about the future of traditional means of making payments and how it might affect monetary policy implementation and its effectiveness. This study provides a brief overview of the existing research in this area. It compares positions taken in the literature by authors on some of the key policy issues relevant for central banks when thinking about the issuance of digitalized legal tenders. We examine the implications of government issued digital alternatives to traditional currencies for monetary policy effectiveness, payments and settlements, and financial market stability. We also discuss recent advances in financial technology to improve the making of payments and settlements, which might help contribute to financial inclusion. At the same time, new technologies represent challenges for regulatory authorities, for instance related to efforts to contain anti-money laundering and prevent financing of terrorism. A number of authors argue that government issued digital currency is necessary to address the flaws in private crypto currencies, and to improve monetary policy effectiveness. Central banks have begun to analyze possible features of digitalized legal tenders, to better understand the policy considerations involved and effects these could have for interest rate transmission and financial markets, but there is no clear consensus on key modalities associated with digitalized legal tenders. Moreover, many central banks do not regard privately issued virtual currencies as a serious threat to traditional currencies. Given the ongoing debate, it is difficult to make firm predictions about the impact of central bank issued digital currencies on monetary policy transmission and financial markets at this point.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Proclamations and Inflation-Fighting Credibility

2010 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Guisinger ◽  
David Andrew Singer
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate

AbstractIf governments choose economic policies that often run counter to their public commitments, are those commitments meaningless? We argue that government proclamations can be critical in signaling economic policy intentions. We focus on the realm of exchange rate policy, in which countries frequently implement an exchange rate regime that differs from the officially declared regime. We argue that the official exchange rate regime is one of the most important signals of a government's economic policy preferences. When a government makes a de jure public commitment to a fixed exchange rate, it sends a signal to domestic and international markets of its strict monetary-policy priorities. In contrast, a government that proclaims a floating exchange rate signals a desire to retain discretion over monetary policy, even if it has implemented a de facto fixed rate. We use data on 110 developed and developing countries from 1974 to 2004 to test two hypotheses: first, that governments that adopt de facto fixed exchange rates will experience less inflation when they back up their actions with official declarations; and second, that governments that abide by their commitments—as demonstrated by a history of following through on their public declarations of a fixed exchange rate regime—will establish greater inflation-fighting credibility. Within developing countries, democratic institutions enhance this credibility. Results from fixed-effects econometric models provide strong support for our hypotheses.

Dampak Kebijakan Moneter Pada Output Di Negara-Negara ASEAN Tahun 1980-2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-70
Author(s):  
Nur Widiastuti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
State Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of monetary Policy on Ouput is an ambiguous. The results of previous empirical studies indicate that the impact can be a positive or negative relationship. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on Output more detail. The variables to estimatate monetery poicy are used state and board interest rate andrate. This research is conducted by Ordinary Least Square or Instrumental Variabel, method for 5 countries ASEAN. The state data are estimated for the period of 1980 – 2014. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the impact of monetary policy on Output shown are varied.Keyword: Monetary Policy, Output, Panel Data, Fixed Effects Model

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

Endogeneity of Monetary Policy Reaction Fun~tion: An Experience from Pakistan's Economy

1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (4II) ◽  
pp. 931-941
Author(s):  
M. Aynul Hasan ◽  
Qazi Masood Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Standard Result ◽  
Policy Variable ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Monetary Policy Reaction Function ◽  
Policy Reaction Function

Monetary policy, in general, refers to those steps taken by the Central Bank to achieve such broader objectives of the economy as growth, employment, external balance and price stability through changes in the money supply, interest rates and credit policies. The money supply thus created by the Central Bank should be in response to the changes in key macroeconomic target variables such as GNP, balance of payments, inflation, internal debt and unemployment. Indeed, a properly estimated monetary policy reaction function can provide useful information regarding such matters as to whether the Central Bank, in fact, has been systematically accommodating to the changes in the target variables. The reaction function can also provide insight into the question as to what should be the relevant indicators of the monetary policy. In addition, as argued by Havrilesky (1967), it may also play a crucial role in the formulation of long-term monetary policy strategy. The other important consideration in the development of a monetary policy reaction function pertains to the endogeneity of the monetary policy. As pointed out by Goldfeld and Blinder (1972), if a policy variable responds to the lagged (or expected) target values, then considering such a policy variable as exogenous would not only introduce the problem of misspecification but will also produce serious biases in the parameters estimated from those models. In particular, if the monetary policy variable happens to be strongly influenced by target variables, then the standard result of the relative effectiveness of the monetary policy vis-a-vis fiscal policy can be questionable on the grounds of reverse causation problem.

scholarly journals Central banks: Hesitant guardians of equilibrium

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (s1) ◽  
pp. 125-139
Author(s):  
Jerzy Hausner ◽  
Andrzej Sławiński
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Budget Constraint ◽  
Soft Budget Constraint ◽  
Intellectual Heritage ◽  
Inherent Tendency

In our paper we focus on situations when central banks have to conduct monetary policy in a world in which they cannot rely fully on what is regarded the best practice and they have to cope with financial system inherent tendency to be unstable. Both phenomena are rooted in János Kornai’s intellectual heritage highlighting that economy tends to divert from equilibrium and that soft budget constraint erodes economic actors’ behavior.

scholarly journals On the money creation approach to banking

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salomon Faure ◽  
Hans Gersbach
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Capital Regulation ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Central Bank Money ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Asset Purchases ◽  
Bank Equity ◽  
Bank Money

AbstractWe study today’s two-tier money creation and destruction system: Commercial banks create bank deposits (privately created money) through loans to firms or asset purchases from the private sector. Bank deposits are destroyed when households buy bank equity or when firms repay loans. Central banks create electronic central bank money (publicly created money or reserves) through loans to commercial banks. In a simple general equilibrium setting, we show that symmetric equilibria yield the first-best level of money creation and lending when prices are flexible, regardless of monetary policy and capital regulation. When prices are rigid, we identify the circumstances in which money creation is excessive or breaks down and the ones in which an adequate combination of monetary policy and capital regulation can restore efficiency. Finally, we provide a series of extensions and generalizations of the results.

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