Using Bayesian Belief Networks to assess the influence of landscape connectivity on ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies in urban landscapes in the UK

10.21203/rs.3.rs-195175/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

James Karimi ◽

Jim A. Harris ◽

Ron Concorstanje

Keyword(s):

Functional Connectivity ◽

Ecosystem Service ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Landscape Connectivity ◽

Structural Characteristics ◽

Bird Species ◽

Bayesian Belief Networks ◽

Belief Networks ◽

Patch Area ◽

Trade Offs

Abstract Context Landscape connectivity is assumed to influence ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs and synergies. However, empirical studies of the effect of landscape connectivity on ES trade-offs and synergies are limited, especially in urban areas where the interactions between patterns and processes are complex.Objectives The objectives of this study were to use a Bayesian Belief Network approach to (1) assess whether functional connectivity drives ES trade-offs and synergies in urban areas and (2) assess the influence of connectivity on the supply of ESs.Methods We used circuit theory to model urban bird flow of P. major and C. caeruleus at a 2 m spatial resolution in Bedford, Luton and Milton Keynes, UK, and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to assess the sensitivity of ES trade-offs and synergies model outputs to landscape and patch structural characteristics (patch area, connectivity and bird species abundance).Results We found that functional connectivity was the most influential variable in determining two of three ES trade-offs and synergies. Patch area and connectivity exerted a strong influence on ES trade-offs and synergies. Low patch area and low to moderately low connectivity were associated with high levels of ES trade-offs and synergies.Conclusions This study demonstrates that landscape connectivity is an influential determinant of ES trade-offs and synergies and supports the conviction that larger and better-connected habitat patches increase ES provision. A BBN approach is proposed as a feasible method of ES trade-off and synergy prediction in complex landscapes. Our findings can prove to be informative for urban ES management.

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Understanding the importance of landscape configuration on ecosystem service bundles at a high resolution in urban landscapes in the UK

Landscape Ecology ◽

10.1007/s10980-021-01200-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

James D. Karimi ◽

Ron Corstanje ◽

Jim A. Harris

Keyword(s):

Principal Component Analysis ◽

Ecosystem Service ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Principal Component ◽

Bayesian Belief Network ◽

Landscape Configuration ◽

Service Trade ◽

Belief Network ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Landscape Configuration Metrics

Abstract Context Landscape structure is thought to affect the provision of ecosystem service bundles. However, studies of the influence of landscape configuration on ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies in urban areas are limited. This study used Bayesian Belief Networks to predict ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies in the urban area comprising the towns of Milton Keynes, Bedford and Luton, UK. Objectives The objectives of this study were to test (1) a Bayesian Belief Network approach for predicting ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies in urban areas and (2) assess whether landscape configuration characteristics affect ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies. Methods Bayesian Belief Network models were used to test the influence of landscape configuration on ecosystem service interactions. The outputs of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on six ecosystem services and landscape configuration metrics were used as response and explanatory variables, respectively. We employed Spearman’s rank correlation and principal component analysis to identify redundancies between landscape metrics. Results We found that landscape configuration affects ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies. A sensitivity analysis conducted on the principal components showed that landscape configuration metrics core area (CORE) and effective mesh size (MESH) are strong influential determinants of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies. Conclusions This study demonstrates that landscape configuration characteristics affect ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies and that a core set of metrics could be used to assess ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs and synergies. The findings may be relevant to planning and urban design and improved ecosystem management.

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Analyzing Time-to-Market and Reliability Trade-Offs with Bayesian Belief Networks

Lecture Notes in Computer Science - Web Engineering ◽

10.1007/11531371_85 ◽

2005 ◽

pp. 618-620

Author(s):

Jianyun Zhou ◽

Tor Stålhane

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Belief Networks ◽

Belief Networks ◽

Time To Market ◽

Trade Offs

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Operationalising ecosystem service assessment in Bayesian Belief Networks: Experiences within the OpenNESS project

Ecosystem Services ◽

10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.11.004 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 29 ◽

pp. 452-464 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Ron I. Smith ◽

David N. Barton ◽

Jan Dick ◽

Roy Haines-Young ◽

Anders L. Madsen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Service ◽

Bayesian Belief Networks ◽

Belief Networks ◽

Ecosystem Service Assessment

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Bayesian belief networks to analyse trade-offs among ecosystem services at the regional scale

Ecological Indicators ◽

10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.07.015 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 71 ◽

pp. 327-335 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

Dries Landuyt ◽

Steven Broekx ◽

Peter L.M. Goethals

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Bayesian Belief Networks ◽

Belief Networks ◽

Trade Offs

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The net return from animal activity in agro-ecosystems: trading off benefits from ecosystem services against costs from crop damage

F1000Research ◽

10.12688/f1000research.2-239.v2 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2 ◽

pp. 239 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Gary W Luck

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Ecosystem Service ◽

Insect Pest ◽

Bird Species ◽

Cost Benefit ◽

Crop Damage ◽

Net Return ◽

Net Returns ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Animal Activity

Animals provide benefits to agriculture through the provision of ecosystem services, but also inflict costs such as damaging crops. These benefits and costs are mostly examined independently, rather than comparing the trade-offs of animal activity in the same system and quantifying the net return from beneficial minus detrimental activities. Here, I examine the net return associated with the activity of seed-eating birds in almond orchards by quantifying the economic costs and benefits of bird consumption of almonds. Pre-harvest, the consumption of harvestable almonds by birds cost growers AUD$57.50 ha-1 when averaged across the entire plantation. Post-harvest, the same bird species provide an ecosystem service by removing mummified nuts from trees that growers otherwise need to remove to reduce threats from fungal infection or insect pest infestations. The value of this ecosystem service ranged from AUD$82.50 ha-1–$332.50 ha-1 based on the replacement costs of mechanical or manual removal of mummified nuts, respectively. Hence, bird consumption of almonds yielded a positive net return of AUD$25–$275 ha-1 averaged across the entire plantation. However, bird activity varied spatially resulting in positive net returns occurring primarily at the edges of crops where activity was higher, compared to negative net returns in crop interiors. Moreover, partial mummy nut removal by birds meant that bird activity may only reduce costs to growers rather than replace these costs completely. Similar cost-benefit trade-offs exist across nature, and quantifying net returns can better inform land management decisions such as when to control pests or promote ecosystem service provision.

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The net return from animal activity in agro-ecosystems: trading off benefits from ecosystem services against costs from crop damage

F1000Research ◽

10.12688/f1000research.2-239.v1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2 ◽

pp. 239 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Gary W Luck

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Ecosystem Service ◽

Insect Pest ◽

Bird Species ◽

Cost Benefit ◽

Crop Damage ◽

Net Return ◽

Net Returns ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Animal Activity

Animals provide benefits to agriculture through the provision of ecosystem services, but also inflict costs such as damaging crops. These benefits and costs are mostly examined independently, rather than comparing the trade-offs of animal activity in the same system and quantifying the net return from beneficial minus detrimental activities. Here, I examine the net return associated with the activity of seed-eating birds in almond orchards by quantifying the economic costs and benefits of bird consumption of almonds. Pre-harvest, the consumption of harvestable almonds by birds cost growers AUD$57.50 ha-1 when averaged across the entire plantation. Post-harvest, the same bird species provide an ecosystem service by removing mummified nuts from trees that growers otherwise need to remove to reduce threats from fungal infection or insect pest infestations. The value of this ecosystem service ranged from AUD$82.50 ha-1–$332.50 ha-1 based on the replacement costs of mechanical or manual removal of mummified nuts, respectively. Hence, bird consumption of almonds yielded a positive net return of AUD$25–$275 ha-1 averaged across the entire plantation. However, bird activity varied spatially resulting in positive net returns occurring primarily at the edges of crops where activity was higher, compared to negative net returns in crop interiors. Moreover, partial mummy nut removal by birds meant that bird activity may only reduce costs to growers rather than replace these costs completely. Similar cost-benefit trade-offs exist across nature, and quantifying net returns can better inform land management decisions such as when to control pests or promote ecosystem service provision.

Download Full-text