Drought adaptation policy development and assessment in East Africa using hydrologic and system dynamics modeling

Objective - This paper discusses a literature review regarding finding system dynamics modeling as the preferred approach to building the national energy system model in Indonesia and introduces the uniqueness of the initial system dynamics model of the Indonesia energy mix today. Methodology/Technique - A literature review about system modeling of energy portfolio management worldwide to find the research gaps and to screen for the preferred modeling approach for the country. Along with past statistics in the background, a combination of system dynamics modeling and focus group discussion is subsequently expected to answer the research questions, bridge the research gaps, and contribute a new invention to management science. Findings - The theoretical testing reveals that system dynamics modeling is suitable to simplify and simulate very large, complex dynamic systems of energy supply that get feedback from many subsystems in non-linear fashions and is a good methodology for holistic approaches to understand underlying behavior over time, taking into account all sorts of feedback, including time delays and feedback loops, and those cannot be easily represented by conventional models, vastly applied in a study of sustainable development. Novelty - The uniqueness of the proposed system dynamics approach lies in the inclusion of a series of new variables developed from common characteristic impediments in public policy development using a traditional non-simulation approach, besides its focus on the unprecedented energy supply quality side of the archipelagic country with its unique parameters being highlighted. Type of Paper: Review Keywords: Portfolio Management; Past Performance; System Dynamic Modelling; Initial Model of Energy Close Loop Diagram of Indonesia Today. JEL Classification: Q40, Q48.

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Using system dynamics modeling to evaluate a community-based social marketing framework

Journal of Social Marketing ◽

10.1108/jsocm-01-2018-0014 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 53-76 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Brian Joseph Biroscak ◽

Carol Bryant ◽

Mahmooda Khaliq ◽

Tali Schneider ◽

Anthony Dominic Panzera ◽

...

Keyword(s):

System Dynamics ◽

Program Development ◽

Social Marketing ◽

Policy Development ◽

Community Coalitions ◽

System Dynamics Modeling ◽

Dynamics Modeling ◽

Community Based ◽

Content Type ◽

Development Framework

PurposeCommunity coalitions are an important part of the public milieu and subject to similar external pressures as other publicly funded organizations – including changes in required strategic orientation. Many US government agencies that fund efforts such as community-based social marketing initiatives have shifted their funding agenda from program development to policy development. The Florida Prevention Research Center at the University of South Florida (Tampa, Florida, USA) created community-based prevention marketing (CBPM) for policy development framework to teach community coalitions how to apply social marketing to policy development. This paper aims to explicate the framework’s theory of change.Design/methodology/approachThe research question was: “How does implementing the CBPM for Policy Development framework improve coalition performance over time?” The authors implemented a case study design, with the “case” being a normative community coalition. The study adhered to a well-developed series of steps for system dynamics modeling.FindingsResults from computer model simulations show that gains in community coalition performance depend on a coalition’s initial culture and initial efficiency, and that only the most efficient coalitions’ performance might improve from implementing the CBPM framework.Originality/valuePractical implications for CBPM’s developers and users are discussed, namely, the importance of managing the early expectations of academic-community partnerships seeking to shift their orientation from downstream (e.g. program development) to upstream social marketing strategies (e.g. policy change).

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