Local Currency Pricing, Foreign Monetary Shocks and Exchange Rate Policy

The level of trust in the local currency in Russia is very low largely because of relatively high inflation. As a result, Bank of Russia during crisis times can not afford monetary policy loosening and has to fight devaluation expectations. To change the situation in the post-crisis period Russia needs to live through a continuous period of low inflation. Modified inflation targeting can help achieve such a result. However, it should be amended with institutional changes, particularly development of hedging instruments.

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TO PEG OR NOT TO PEG?

The Singapore Economic Review ◽

10.1142/s0217590807002555 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 52 (01) ◽

pp. 39-52 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

ANTHONY J. MAKIN

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

National Income ◽

Real Income ◽

Exchange Rate Policy ◽

Monetary Shocks ◽

Rate System ◽

Floating Exchange Rate ◽

Rate Policy ◽

Exchange Rate System ◽

Real Shocks

This paper presents a simple framework for analyzing the macroeconomic effects of internal and external shocks under polar exchange rate regimes. It highlights the significance of fluctuations in competitiveness and real income for exchange rate policy, revealing that positive (negative) real shocks increase (decrease) national income and strengthen (weaken) the balance of payments and exchange rate. It also shows that, ceteris paribus, pegged exchange rates facilitate real income growth for emerging economies while lowering its variability when exports and productivity are improving and monetary shocks predominate. Alternatively, a floating exchange rate system may be most appropriate for less open advanced economies with relatively stable monetary sectors that frequently experience negative real shocks.

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Fear of Free Floating or Forced Exchange Rate Fixing

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2004-6-112-122 ◽

2004 ◽

pp. 112-122

Author(s):

O. Osipova

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Financial Crisis ◽

Exchange Rates ◽

Inflation Targeting ◽

Exchange Rate Policy ◽

Float Exchange Rate ◽

Floating Exchange Rate ◽

Rate Policy ◽

Exchange Rate Arrangements ◽

Pass Through

After the financial crisis at the end of the 1990 s many countries rejected fixed exchange rate policy. However actually they failed to proceed to announced "independent float" exchange rate arrangement. This might be due to the "fear of floating" or an irreversible result of inflation targeting central bank policy. In the article advantages and drawbacks of fixed and floating exchange rate arrangements are systematized. Features of new returning to exchange rates stabilization and possible risks of such policy for Russia are considered. Special attention is paid to the issue of choice of a "target" currency composite which can minimize external inflation pass-through.

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Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Stability

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2010-1-29-43 ◽

2010 ◽

pp. 29-43

Author(s):

S. Smirnov

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Inflation Targeting ◽

Exchange Rate Regime ◽

Exchange Rate Policy ◽

Real Sector ◽

Economic Stability ◽

Exogenous Shocks ◽

Floating Exchange Rate ◽

Rate Policy ◽

Managed Floating

The Bank of Russia intends to introduce inflation targeting policy and exchange rate free floating regime in three years. Exogenous shocks absorption which stabilizes the real sector of economy is usually considered to be one of the advantages of free floating exchange rate policy. However, our research based on the analysis of 25 world largest economies exchange rates and industrial production during the crisis of 2008-2009 does not confirm this hypothesis. The article also analyzes additional risks associated with free floating exchange rate regime in Russia and presents some arguments in favor of managed floating exchange rate regime.

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