The COVID-19 Economic Crisis in Mexico through the Lens of a Financial Conditions Index

The COVID-19 pandemic not only generated real shocks affecting economic activity severely, but also a broad uncertainty that unleashed an extreme shock to financial markets. In this paper, we focus on the financial dimension of the pandemic from the viewpoint of an emerging market economy. Accordingly, we estimate a financial conditions index for Mexico since 1993 and find that the acute turmoil generated by the pandemic stands among the four largest episodes of financial distress experienced by the country. In addition, we find evidence suggesting that real variables have responded differently to shocks that worsen financial conditions than to shocks that improve them.

The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia

Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to Asian economies and whether the use of policies, such as the monetary policy interest rate, foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and macroprudential measures (MPMs), can mitigate the impact of these external shocks. It uses panel quantile regressions on a sample of 14 Asian advanced and emerging economies (AEs and EMs) to assess the impact of financial and real shocks on investment and GDP growth at the median and 5th percentile tail. It finds that external financial shocks tend to have a larger effect on Asian economies than real shocks, and that the main transmission channels through which shocks are propagated are capital flows (particularly via corporate and bank balance sheets) for EMs, and credit for AEs. It also finds evidence that for Asian EMs, FXI may help dampen the capital flows and real exchange rate channels and mitigate financial shocks in the short run, and monetary policy transmission tends to be relatively weak; meanwhile MPMs can help mitigate the credit channel for both AEs and EMs.

Financial Linkages and Shock Spillovers in the Countries of Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe

At the start of the third decade of the 21st century, the countries of Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) are still lagging behind ‘old' EU Member States in regards to various macroeconomic and social indicators. This is particularly evident when considering the development of the financial sector, especially the non-banking part. This chapter focuses on the stock markets of eleven CESEE countries and analyzes potential macroeconomic factors that contribute to explaining the dynamics of real equity prices. To account for cross-country linkages and potential spillovers, global vector autoregressive (GVAR) methodology is applied. The estimated impact elasticities enabled the pinpointing of CESEE countries with stronger linkages to foreign stock markets. Generalized impulse response functions indicated the existence of statistically significant spillovers, the strongest spillovers coming from the German stock market. The empirical results also showed spillovers from CESEE countries' stock markets, bond markets, as well as from real shocks.

Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19*

Market reactions to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) provide new insights into how real shocks and financial policies drive firm value. Initially, internationally oriented firms, especially those more exposed to trade with China, underperformed. As the virus spread to Europe and the United States, corporate debt and cash holdings emerged as important value drivers, relevant even after the Fed intervened in the bond market. The content and tone of conference calls mirror this development over time. Overall, the results illustrate how anticipated real effects from the health crisis, a rare disaster, were amplified through financial channels. (JEL G01, G12, G14, G32, F14) Received: May 27, 2020; editorial decision June 16, 2020 by Editor Andrew Ellul. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Optimal Monetary Policy when Information is Market-Generated

The nature of the private sector’s information changes the optimal conduct of monetary policy. When firms observe their individual demand and use it as a signal of real shocks, the optimal policy consists in maximising the information content of that signal. When real shocks are deflationary (like labour supply shocks), the optimal policy is countercyclical and magnifies price movements, which contrasts with the exogenous information case, where optimal monetary policy is procyclical and stabilises prices. When the central bank communicates its information to the public, this policy is still optimal if firms pay limited attention to central bank announcements.

An Analysis of the Bank Credit Marketization’s Effects on the Economic Fluctuation in China

In recent years, more and more scholars began to emphasize the study of factors affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. As the bank credit market is a major part of the financial market in China, how bank credit marketization influences economic fluctuation has undoubtedly caused much attention. This paper mainly studies the role of bank credit marketization in the conductive process of macroeconomic fluctuations caused by real shocks and monetary shocks. According to the theoretical model created by Bacchetta (2000) and Beck (2006), this paper theoretically analyses the mechanism of bank credit marketization’s effects. The results show that bank credit marketization amplifies real shocks but offsets monetary shocks in the conductive process of macroeconomic fluctuations. The government scale and the development of the stock market also have a significant influence on economic fluctuations. Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, some policy recommendations are proposed.