Evaluating the car ownership control policy in Shanghai: a structural vector auto-regression approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suwei Feng ◽  
Qiang Li
Keyword(s):  
Control Policy ◽  
Car Ownership ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Structural Vector ◽  
Ownership Control

scholarly journals effectiveness of car scrapping schemes in the Italian market

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Romano ◽  
Giuseppe Scandurra
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Economic Trend ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Intervention Analysis ◽  
Italian Market ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Structural Vector

The aim of this work is to examine the effectiveness of policies in support of the automotive industry that have taken place over the years and the link between car registration and consumer confidence. Firstly, through an intervention analysis, the series of total car registrations in Italy has been corrected for the effect of seasonality and incentives. Secondly, a Structural Vector Auto Regression model has been estimated in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the relationship between car registrations and consumers' confidence. The results show that policies in support of the automotive industry are useful if granted during an increasing economic trend. Otherwise they have no effect on sales of new vehicles.

Fiscal shocks, the real exchange rate and the trade balance: some evidence for emerging economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Eduardo Alves da Silva ◽  
Diogo Baerlocher ◽  
Henrique Veras de Paiva Fonseca
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
The Real ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Structural Vector ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

AbstractThis paper implements a structural vector auto regression (SVAR) analysis to investigate the impacts and importance of fiscal shocks on the dynamics of the real exchange rate and the trade balance in three emerging economies: Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We show that the effects of an unexpected increase in government spending are not uniform across countries with higher spending leading to a depreciation of the real exchange rate in Brazil and Chile, whereas in Mexico, we observe an appreciation. The trade balance deteriorates in all three countries. We also report that an unexpected increase in taxes leads to recessionary impacts and improves the trade balance. Only in Mexico is there evidence of a real exchange rate depreciation. Finally, we show that fiscal shocks account for roughly 20% of real exchange fluctuations.

scholarly journals Keterkaitan Instrumen Kebijakan Moneter dengan Tingkat Pengangguran

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 421-431
Author(s):  
Fitrawaty Fitrawaty
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Structural Vector

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana interdependensi instrument kebijakan moneter dengan pengangguran di Indonesia selama periode tahun 2000 – 2011. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series yang diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia, Biro Pusat Statistik dan institusi lainnya. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Vector Auturegression (VAR) dilanjutkan dengan Struktural Vector Auturegression (SVAR). Berdasarkan hasil interpretasi VAR dan SVAR, secara khusus diperoleh bahwa keterkaitan  antara instrumen moneter dengan pengangguran (UNEMP) memiliki arah yang berbeda. Variabel operasi pasar terbuka (OPT),  tingkat suku bunga diskonto (rDiskonto), dan tingkat bunga domestik (rDom), mempunyai arah yang negatif terhadap variabel pengangguran, sedangkan variabel giro wajib minimum (GWM), nilai tukar (EXC) mempunyai arah yang positif. Keseluruahan instrumen moneter secara parsial berpengaruh tidak signifikan terhadap UNEMP. Begitu juga setelah dilakukan shock dengan menaikkan OPT sebesar 5% pada tahun 2010, diperoleh bahwa variabel OPT, GWM, rDiskonto, rDOM, EXC, juga tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pengangguran. This study is intended to analyze the correlation of monetary policy instruments with unemployment in Indonesia during the period 2000 - 2011. The data used are time series data obtained from Bank of Indonesia, the Central Statistics Bureau and other institutions. This study uses Vector Auto regression (VAR) method followed by Structural Vector Auto regression (SVAR). Based on the results of the interpretation of VAR and SVAR, it was found that the relationship between monetary instruments with unemployment (UNEMP) had different directions. Open market operations variable (OMO), discounted interest rates variable(discount), and domestic interest rates variable (FDOM), have a negative correlation to the unemployment variable, while the statutory reserve requirement (GWM), exchange rate (EXC) variables have a positive correlation. The partiality of monetary instruments has no significant effect on UNEMP. Likewise, after the shock of increasing OPT by 5% in 2010, it was found that the OMO variable, GWM, discount, FDOM, and EXC, also had no significant effects on unemployment.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Public Policy on Economic Activity: The Case of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 230-241
Author(s):  
Saima Shafique ◽  
M. Mansoor Ali ◽  
Anwar-ul Mujahid Shah ◽  
Seema Zubair
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tax Shocks ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Structural Vector

The unanticipated domestic and international changes in conjunction with policy discretion become reason for shocks to overall economy that affect overall economic growth. Based on methodology by Blanchard and Perotti (2002) the study used timing of fiscal decisions in a Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR) to map dynamics of shocks due to tax revenue, government expenditures and aggregate output in Pakistan. When tax decisions precede expenditure decision, the tax shocks have a volatile short run impact causing expenditures to sharply adjust. Expenditure shocks persistently increase tax revenues and government expenditures. But in the second specification, expenditure shocks reduce the tax revenue and aggregate output that reverts to equilibrium only in the long run. The response of output shocks is almost identical for both the scenarios. Therefore, growth in output increases taxes collection in Pakistan enabling better management of burden of debt and deficit.

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