The determinants of demand for tourism in Turkey: Does terror-threat matter? A Markov Regime Switching-VAR approach

This paper investigates the impacts of potential determinants of demand for tourism in Turkey through Markov Regime Switching-Vector Auto Regression (MS-VAR) estimations from 1999 to 2017 on monthly data. The determinants are income level, exchange rates and the threat of terror incidences. The terror variable, following the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2017 report, is calculated for Turkey by the author. This research has conducted two separate MS-VAR models to observe the relevant parameters’ signs of the demand for tourism function. Both MS-VAR models revealed that income level and exchange rates have positive influences on tourism while the terror threat has a negative impact on tourism in Turkey. Terror adversely affects the demand for tourism in the short-term in which terror has occurred in the nearest past (i.e., a month ago). The MS-VAR models also yield that a similar negative impact of terror on tourism activities does not appear over the longer periods.

Education Budget Through Central or Local Government Spending: Which Is More Effective in Improving the Quality of Human Life?

Regional autonomy demands a division of authority between the Center and the regions, which in turn has an impact on budgeting policies. On the one hand, central government spending is oriented towards equity, but on the other hand, the regions understand very well their respective characteristics. The government's budget is always results-oriented, so this research can later be used as a benchmark in planning budgeting. In terms of spending on Education in Indonesia, the budget is channeled through central government spending and local government spending. This research is structured to see between the Central Government or Local Government, more significant in accelerating human quality (IPM) in Indonesia. This study uses Vector Auto Regression with Bayesian Vector Auto Regression model specifications to determine the effect between the variables studied. The variables used in this study are the Central Government Expenditure budget, Regional Government Expenditure on Education through Transfers from the Center to the Regions, Adjusted Per Capita Expenditure, and the Human Development Index from 2007 – 2020. The estimation results show a tendency for local government spending to be more able to increase Human Development Index compared to the Education budget through central government spending. This finding indicates that in the end, the results of decentralization, one of which is the delegation of authority for local government spending, can accelerate the human development index higher than the expenditure issued by the central government.

Hubungan antara Pendapatan Daerah, Belanja Daerah dan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) di Provinsi Kepulauan Banka Belitung dengan Analisis Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR)

This study aims to analyze and determine the relationship between Regional Income, Regional Expenditures and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in the Province of the Bangka Belitung Islands. The type of research used is quantitative. The data sources of this research are secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the Directorate General of Treasury (DJPB). The data used is on Regional Income, Regional Expenditure and GRDP in all districts/cities of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province in 2014-2019. The data analysis performed was analysis Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR). The results showed no causal relationship between regional income and GRDP in the Province of the Bangka Belitung Islands, with probability values of 0.94 and 0.87. Meanwhile, there is a one-way relationship between regional income and regional expenditure in the Province of the Bangka Belitung Islands with a probability value of 0.005 and 0.16, and there is no causal relationship between regional expenditure and GRDP in the Province of the Bangka Belitung Islands with a probability value of 0.98 and 0.96.

Analisis Vector Autoregression (VAR) Terhadap Hubungan Antara Luas Panen, Produksi Dan Produktivitas Panen Padi (Studi Kasus Kota Yogyakarta Tahun 1993 -2015)

Padi merupakan makanan pokok mayoritas masyarakat Indonesia, termasuk masyarakat di daerah Yogyakarta, namun hingga saat ini pemerintah masih mengandalkan impor beras dari luar negeri dengan jumlah yang masif, sehingga membuat peneliti tertarik untuk melakukan penelitian tentang produktivitas pertanian Indonesia yang diambil sampel daerah Yogyakarta sebagai bahan uji melalui badan pusat statistik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji apakah antara luas panen, tingkat produksi dan produktivitas memiliki hubungan yang saling mempengaruhi. Peneliti menggunakan analisis Vector Auto Regression. Hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa luas panen berpengaruh terhadap kenaikan nilai produksi, sebaliknya mengalami penurunan pada produktivitas, pengaruh lainnya juga ditemukan bahwasanya produksi terhadap luas lahan dan sedikit pengaruh terhadap produktivitas.TRANSLATE with x EnglishArabicHebrewPolishBulgarianHindiPortugueseCatalanHmong DawRomanianChinese SimplifiedHungarianRussianChinese TraditionalIndonesianSlovakCzechItalianSlovenianDanishJapaneseSpanishDutchKlingonSwedishEnglishKoreanThaiEstonianLatvianTurkishFinnishLithuanianUkrainianFrenchMalayUrduGermanMalteseVietnameseGreekNorwegianWelshHaitian CreolePersian // TRANSLATE with COPY THE URL BELOW Back EMBED THE SNIPPET BELOW IN YOUR SITE Enable collaborative features and customize widget: Bing Webmaster PortalBack//

Macro Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Lebanon

This paper is concerned with identifying and analysing the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Lebanon. Toward this purpose, the analysis will be based on secondary data collected for the period standing between 1990 and 2018 to implement the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Error correction model (ECM) techniques. The results reveal that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), deposit interest rate and debt are correlated with FDI. While trade was found statistically an insignificant variable for FDI inflow. The findings of the study recommend that establishing and maintaining economic stability and growth will spurs foreign investments in Lebanon.

CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

The motivation behind this study is to experimentally look at the connection between capital market improvement and monetary development in Nigeria. The examination investigated the Central Bank of Nigeria quarterly information from 1981Q1 to 2017Q4 with the E-sees programming bundle (variant 9.0). The Vector Auto Regression (VAR) procedure was utilized to investigate the information, while theory testing depended on the Block Exogeneity Wald test. The predetermined models included stationarity tests, diminished structure VAR gauge, and primary examination. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test demonstrates that the examination factors are fixed at first contrast or I(1). The VAR establishes plot corresponding to unit circle demonstrates that our predetermined diminished structure VAR models are steady. The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) symptomatic tests demonstrate that our predetermined VAR models are effectively indicated. The p-esteem shows that market capitalization proportion is critical in clarifying varieties in financial development (p = 0.0205). Notwithstanding, the worth of stock proportion and banking framework capitalization proportion is not huge in deciding the Real Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. All in all, capital market advancement in Nigeria is worked with by vigorous market capitalization. Nonetheless, it is restricted by diminishing volume of stock and lessening banking framework capitalization. It is suggested that the monetary area ought to take on forceful capital market drives and vigorous monetary development approaches to support financial development in an arising economy.

PENGARUH TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA FEDERAL RESERVE DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX

Perkembangan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) menuju pasar modal syariah menghadapi banyak kendala. Salah satunya adalah praktik spekulasi yang dilakukan oleh investor yang tidak asli (not genuine investor). Faktor eksternal yang dapat dijadikan indikator spekulasi investor adalah tingkat suku bunga dan nilai tukar. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh fluktuasi suku bunga federal reserve dan nilai tukar Jakarta Islamic Index. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berupa time series bulanan periode Januari 2007 sampai Juni 2016. Sumber data diperoleh dari Federal Reserve, Bank Indonesia, dan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Analisis data menggunakan Vector Auto Regression (VAR) dengan teknik Impulse Response. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa fluktuasi Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) dipengaruhi oleh suku bunga federal reserve dan nilai tukar. Hal ini mengindikasikan masih adanya praktik spekulatif yang dilakukan oleh investor. Sebagai solusi untuk mencegah spekulasi adalah dengan menetapkan minimum holding period atau minimum stock holding period.

VOLATILITAS DAN TRANSMISI HARGA DAGING SAPI DI INDONESIA: STUDI KASUS DI JAKARTA, BANDUNG, SEMARANG DAN SURABAYA

Abstrak Daging sapi merupakan salah satu komoditas strategis dengan harga yang cukup berfluktuasi. Fluktuasi harga daging sapi dapat berpengaruh terhadap produsen, konsumen, dan industri pengolahan daging sapi skala kecil. Besarnya perubahan harga daging sapi yang terjadi di suatu pasar dapat memengaruhi pasar lainnya dan dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui kekuatan suatu pasar. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji volatilitas dan transmisi harga daging sapi di sentra konsumen Jakarta dan sentra produsen Bandung, Semarang dan Surabaya. Data yang digunakan adalah data harian daging sapi. Volatilitas harga harian daging sapi dianalisis dengan menggunakan model GARCH dan transmisi harga dikaji dengan menggunakan model VAR/VECM. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa hanya harga daging sapi Jakarta yang memiliki volatilitas rendah namun persisten dalam jangka panjang. Perubahan harga daging sapi ditransmisikan dua arah dari Jakarta ke Bandung dan Semarang, dan hanya searah dari Jakarta ke Surabaya. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa upaya stabilisasi harga daging sapi dapat dilakukan dengan menjaga ketersediaan daging sapi baik melalui impor (jangka pendek dan menengah) maupun upaya penyediaan bibit sapi dan sapi potong lokal dalam jangka panjang. Iklim usaha daging sapi yang kompetitif juga diperlukan agar ketidaksesuaian perubahan harga antar pasar dapat dikurangi. Kata Kunci: Daging Sapi, Volatilitas, GARCH, Vector Auto Regression, Stabilisasi Harga Abstract Beef is one of the strategic commodities with fairly fluctuating prices. Fluctuations in beef prices could affect producers, consumers, and small-scale beef processing industries. The magnitude of changes in beef prices that occur in a market could affect other markets and could be used to determine the strength of a market. The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility and transmission of beef prices in the consumer centers of Jakarta and the production centers of Bandung, Semarang and Surabaya. The data used is the daily data of beef. Daily price volatility of beef was analyzed using the GARCH model and price transmission was assessed using the VAR/VECM model. The results of the study show that only Jakarta beef prices have low volatility but are persistent in the long term. Changes in beef prices are transmitted in two directions from Jakarta to Bandung and Semarang, and only in one direction from Jakarta to Surabaya. The results of the analysis show that efforts to stabilize beef prices could be carried out by maintaining the availability of beef either through import (short and medium term) or efforts to provide cattle seeds and local beef cattle in the long term. A competitive beef business climate is also needed so that discrepancies in price changes between markets could be reduced. Keywords: Beef, Volatility, GARCH, Vector Auto Regression, Price Stabilisation JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15