scholarly journals Evolution of individual preferences and persistence of family rules

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Cigno ◽  
Alessandro Gioffré ◽  
Annalisa Luporini
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Elderly Parents ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Family Rules ◽  
Preference Evolution

Abstract How does the distribution of individual preferences evolve as a result of marriage between individuals with different preferences? Could a family rule be self-enforcing given individual preferences, and remain such for several generations despite preference evolution? We show that it is in a couple’s common interest to obey a rule requiring them to give specified amounts of attention to their elderly parents if the couple’s preferences satisfy a certain condition, and the same condition is rationally expected to hold also where their children and respective spouses are concerned. Given uncertainty about who their children will marry, a couple’s expectations will reflect the probability distribution of preferences in the next generation. We show that, in any given generation, some couples may obey the rule in question and some may not. It is also possible that a couple will obey the rule, but their descendants will not for a number of generations, and then obey it again. In the long run, if matching is entirely random, either everybody obeys the same rule, or nobody obeys any. If matching is restricted to particular subpopulations identifiable by some visible trait, such as religion or color of the skin, different subpopulations may obey different rules. The policy implications are briefly discussed.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

A Dynamic Analysis of Child Labor with a Variable Rate of Discount: Some Policy Implications

2006 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Satya P Das ◽  
Rajat Deb
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Child Labor ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Infinite Horizon ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Poverty Trap ◽  
Variable Rate ◽  
Lump Sum ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

AbstractThis paper analyzes the problem of child labor in an infinite-horizon dynamic model with a variable rate of time preference and credit constraints. The variability in the rate of time preference leads to the possibility of multiple steady states and a poverty trap. The paper considers the long-run and short-run effects of an array of policies like enrollment subsidy, improvement in primary education infrastructure, lump-sum subsidy, and variations in loan market parameters. We distinguish between policies that reduce child labor in the long run only in the presence of a variable discount rate and other policies which work whether or not the discount rate is variable. Credit-related policies belong to the former group. Policies that reduce child labor and increase family consumption in the long run may have an adverse effect of lowering consumption in the short run.

scholarly journals Banking Sector Development, Inflation and Economic Growth in Asian Countries: A Panel Causality and Co-Integration Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 384
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Nazir ◽  
Rehana Tabassam ◽  
Ifran Khan ◽  
Muhammad Rizwan Nazir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Integration Test

This study investigates the causal relationship between banking sector development, inflation, and economic growth for six Asian countries (Bangladesh, China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) over the period of 1970-2016. Using a Pedroni panel, Kao co-integration test, Panel Granger causality-based Error Correction Model, Dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), and Fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), this study finds that the development of the banking sector generally has a positive relationship with economic growth in the long-run. This results show that in the long-run, monetary policy play a vital role in the economic growth. This study also confirmed the response causality between the indicators of banking sector development and economic growth. Based on the empirical findings, this research provides important policy implications to the banking sector and economic supervisory bodies in order to achieve the long run economic growth.

scholarly journals Empirical evidence of a long-run relationship between agriculture and manufacturing industry output in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eze Osuagwu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Industry Output

<p>This study investigates a relationship between agriculture and manufacturing industry output in Nigeria from 1982-2015, using the Granger causality, co-integration and error correction techniques. Empirical evidence reveals a bidirectional relationship between the sectors. Although, a positive and significant relationship exists in the short and long-run estimates, a long-run divergence from the vector error correction model suggest that changes in agricultural productivity are not restored to equilibrium, given that macroeconomic factors distort the linkage. Policy implications indicate that macroeconomic stability is a necessary condition for agricultural and manufacturing sectors to foster economic growth.</p>

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment - Domestic Investment Nexus: Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-275
Author(s):  
Abraham Babu
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Reform Period

The relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment is intriguing. An important question arises - does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out domestic investment? This paper examines this nexus in the post-1991 period in India, which is also considered as the post-reform period. It is during this era; the above-mentioned topic gains more impetus as the economy opened up for further foreign inflows. The time period taken for the paper was from 1990-91 to 2014-15. The data series were checked for stationarity and the presence of long run relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment was analysed using cointegration test. Thereafter, the vector error correction model was estimated. The results clearly show that foreign direct investment crowds out domestic investment in India in the post reform period. The findings have significant policy implications because there is a substituting relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment in India.

scholarly journals Do FDI and Public Investment Crowd in/out Domestic Private Investment in the SADC Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-25
Author(s):  
Eslon Ngeendepi ◽  
Andrew Phiri
Keyword(s):  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Our study examines the crowding-in/out effect of foreign direct investment and government expenditure on private domestic investment for 15 members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) for the period 1991–2019. The study employed the panel Pool Mean Group (PMG)/ARDL technique in estimating the short-run and long-run cointegration relationships between FDI, government capital expenditure and domestic private investment and adds three more variables for control purposes (interest rate, GDP growth rate and trade openness). For the full sample, FDI crowds-in domestic investment whilst government crowds-out domestic investment. However, in performing a sensitivity analysis, in which the sample was segregated into low and high income economies, both FDI and government investment crowd-in domestic investment whilst government expenditure crowds-out domestic investment in lower income SADC countries with no effect of FDI on domestic investment. Policy implications are discussed.

scholarly journals CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: New Evidence in the ASEAN Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vo ◽  
Vo ◽  
Le
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run

The members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have made several attempts to adopt renewable energy targets given the economic, energy-related, environmental challenges faced by the governments, policy makers, and stakeholders. However, previous studies have focused limited attention on the role of renewable energy when testing the dynamic link between CO2 emissions, energy consumption and renewable energy consumption. As such, this study is conducted to test a common hypothesis regarding a long-run environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The paper also investigates the causal link between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, renewable energy, population growth, and economic growth for countries in the region. Using various time-series econometrics approaches, our analysis covers five ASEAN members (including Indonesia, Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand) for the 1971–2014 period where required data are available. Our results reveal no long-run relationship among the variables of interest in the Philippines and Thailand, but a relationship does exist in Indonesia, Myanmar, and Malaysia. The EKC hypothesis is observed in Myanmar but not in Indonesia and Malaysia. Also, Granger causality among these important variables varies considerably across the selected countries. No Granger causality among carbon emissions, energy consumption, and renewable energy consumption is reported in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Indonesia experiences a unidirectional causal effect from economic growth to renewable energy consumption in both short and long run and from economic growth to CO2 emissions and energy consumption. Interestingly, only Myanmar has a unidirectional effect from GDP growth, energy consumption, and population to the adoption of renewable energy. Policy implications have emerged based on the findings achieved from this study for each country in the ASEAN region.

scholarly journals Private Savings in the Arab Countries: Empirical Analysis and Policy Implications

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar ◽  
Ali Bolbol ◽  
Alexandre Mouradian
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Fair Share ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Robust Least Squares ◽  
Private Savings ◽  
Econometric Approach

In the past two decades, Arab countries have had their fair share of political instability and economic dislocations. They have also experienced relatively low national savings – at close to 24%, more than 10% less than the Asian economies. This paper looks at how private savings can be invigorated so as to finance more investment and growth, especially in the presence of persistent budget deficits. It develops a simple macroeconomic equation for the determinants of private savings, and uses a novel econometric approach – Robust Least Squares – to estimate that equation for a sample of ten Arab countries across the three sub-regions of the Gulf, West Asia, and North Africa, for the annual 1994-2015 period. The paper finds that Arab private savings compensate for government dis-savings and help ameliorate pressures on the current account and exchange rates. It also finds that Arab private savings are closely related to long-run Arab GDP growth ala the life cycle hypothesis, and proposes policies to enhance the mutual growth of Arab private savings and GDP.

The force of globalization reshaping the local institutions: evidence from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation member countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nahla Samargandi ◽  
Kazi Sohag ◽  
Ali Kutan ◽  
Maha Alandejani
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Institutional Setting ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nonlinear Relation ◽  
Political Globalization

PurposeThe authors reinforce the existing literature on the effect of overall globalization on institutional quality (IQ), while incorporating the effects of economic, political and social aspects of globalization, human capital, government expenditure and population growth. To this end, the authors estimate panel data models for a sample of 36 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) during 1984–2016.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL) approach.FindingsThe study’s investigation affirms the presence of an inverted U-shaped (nonlinear) relation between overall globalization and IQ indexes for the sample countries, which suggests no additional room for improvement in IQ. It also underpins the existence of an inverted-U-shaped (nonlinear) relation between political globalization and IQ. In contrast, economic and social globalizations have a U-shaped relation with IQ, implying more scope for improvement.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings have key policy implications. First, policy makers should consider a long-run approach for improving IQ and globalization over time. Second, quick reforms in the short run may not improve IQ.Practical implicationsThe results suggest that policy makers should approach the globalization process from a long-run perspective as well by designing appropriate strategies to provide a continuous but gradual increase in globalization so as to systematically monitor the threshold limits to IQ from improving globalizationOriginality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this work is the first to empirically investigate the overall role of globalization in promoting IQ under the conditions of short-run heterogeneity and long-run homogeneity. The authors focus on the member countries of the OIC, many of which are ruled by authoritarian regimes and suffer from a poor domestic institutional setting.

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