Comparison of Recurrent Neural Network, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Stochastic Models in Eğirdir Lake Level Forecasting

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veysel Güldal ◽  
Hakan Tongal
Author(s):  
R. Subasri ◽  
R. Meenakumari ◽  
R. Velnath ◽  
Srinivethaa Pongiannan ◽  
M. Sri Sai Mani Rohit Kumar

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lilin Cheng ◽  
Haixiang Zang ◽  
Tao Ding ◽  
Rong Sun ◽  
Miaomiao Wang ◽  
...  

Wind energy is a commonly utilized renewable energy source, due to its merits of extensive distribution and rich reserves. However, as wind speed fluctuates violently and uncertainly at all times, wind power integration may affect the security and stability of power system. In this study, we propose an ensemble model for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. It consists of wavelet threshold denoising (WTD), recurrent neural network (RNN) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Firstly, WTD smooths the wind speed series in order to better capture its variation trend. Secondly, RNNs with different architectures are trained on the denoising datasets, operating as submodels for point wind speed forecasting. Thirdly, ANFIS is innovatively established as the top layer of the entire ensemble model to compute the final point prediction result, in order to take full advantages of a limited number of deeplearningbased submodels. Lastly, variances are obtained from submodels and then prediction intervals of probabilistic forecasting can be calculated, where the variances inventively consist of modeling and forecasting uncertainties. The proposed ensemble model is established and verified on less than one-hour-ahead ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting. We compare it with other soft computing models. The results indicate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed model in both point and probabilistic wind speed forecasting.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 746-755 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani ◽  
Ali-Asghar Beheshti ◽  
Behzad Ataie-Ashtiani ◽  
Saeed-Reza Sabbagh-Yazdi

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document