Pupillary Reactivity Upon Hospital Admission Predicts Long-term Outcome in Poor Grade Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Patients

OBJECTIVEAn increasing number of patients with poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) have received endovascular treatment. Endovascular treatment of poor-grade aSAH, however, is based on single-center retrospective studies, and predictors of long-term outcome have not been well defined. Using results from a multicenter prospective registry, the authors aimed to develop preoperative and postoperative prognostic models to predict poor outcome after endovascular treatment of poor-grade aSAH.METHODSA Multicenter Poor-grade Aneurysm Study (AMPAS) was a prospective and observational registry of consecutive patients with poor-grade aSAH. From October 2010 to March 2012, 366 patients were enrolled in the registry, and 136 patients receiving endovascular treatment were included in this study. Outcome was assessed by modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 12 months, and poor outcome was defined as an mRS score of 4, 5, or 6. Prognostic models were developed in multivariate logistic regression models. The area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to assess the model's discriminatory ability, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess the calibration.RESULTSAt 12 months, 64 patients (47.0%) had a poor outcome: 9 (6.6%) had an mRS score of 4, 6 (4.4%) had an mRS score of 5, and 49 (36.0%) had died. Univariate analyses showed that older age (p = 0.001), female sex (p = 0.044), lower Glasgow Coma Scale score (p < 0.001), a World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade of V (p < 0.001), higher Fisher grade (p < 0.001), modified Fisher grade (p < 0.001), and wider neck aneurysm (p = 0.026) were associated with a poor outcome. There was a trend toward a worse outcome in patients with anterior communicating artery aneurysms (p = 0.080) and in those with incompletely occluded aneurysms (p = 0.063). After endovascular treatment, the presence of cerebral infarction (p = 0.039), symptomatic vasospasm (p = 0.039), and pneumonia (p = 0.006) were associated with a poor outcome. Multivariate analyses showed that the preoperative prognostic model including age, a WFNS grade of V, modified Fisher grade, and aneurysm neck size had excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.92, p < 0.001), and a postoperative model that included these predictors as well as postoperative pneumonia had excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.87, 95% CI 0.81–0.93, p < 0.001). Both models had good calibration (p = 0.941 and p = 0.653, respectively).CONCLUSIONSOlder age, WFNS Grade V, higher modified Fisher grade, wider neck aneurysm, and postoperative pneumonia were independent predictors of poor outcome after endovascular treatment of poor-grade aSAH. The preoperative model had almost the same discrimination as the postoperative model. Endovascular treatment should be carefully considered in patients with poor-grade aSAH with ruptured wide-neck aneurysms.▪ CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE Type of question: prognostic; study design: retrospective cohort trial; evidence: Class I.

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Assessment of the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) Models for Dichotomized Long-Term Functional Outcome Prediction After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in a United Kingdom Multicenter Cohort Study

Neurosurgery ◽

10.1093/neuros/nyaa299 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Isabel C Hostettler ◽

Menelaos Pavlou ◽

Gareth Ambler ◽

Varinder S Alg ◽

Stephen Bonner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽

Functional Outcome ◽

Outcome Prediction ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽

Predictive Performance ◽

Term Outcome ◽

Long Term Outcome ◽

Fisher Grade

Abstract BACKGROUND Long-term outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage, beyond the first few months, is difficult to predict, but has critical relevance to patients, their families, and carers. OBJECTIVE To assess the performance of the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) prediction models, which were initially designed to predict short-term (90 d) outcome, as predictors of long-term (2 yr) functional outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS We included 1545 patients with angiographically-proven aSAH from the Genetic and Observational Subarachnoid Haemorrhage (GOSH) study recruited at 22 hospitals between 2011 and 2014. We collected data on age, WNFS grade on admission, history of hypertension, Fisher grade, aneurysm size and location, as well as treatment modality. Functional outcome was measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) with GOS 1 to 3 corresponding to unfavorable and 4 to 5 to favorable functional outcome, according to the SAHIT models. The SAHIT models were assessed for long-term outcome prediction by estimating measures of calibration (calibration slope) and discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC]) in relation to poor clinical outcome. RESULTS Follow-up was standardized to 2 yr using imputation methods. All 3 SAHIT models demonstrated acceptable predictive performance for long-term functional outcome. The estimated AUC was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.76), 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.77), and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.69-0.79) for the core, neuroimaging, and full models, respectively; the calibration slopes were 0.86, 0.84, and 0.89, indicating good calibration. CONCLUSION The SAHIT prediction models, incorporating simple factors available on hospital admission, show good predictive performance for long-term functional outcome after aSAH.

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