prognostic models
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2022 ◽  
Vol 2022 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Yongjie Zhou ◽  
Liangwen Wang ◽  
Wen Zhang ◽  
Jingqin Ma ◽  
Zihan Zhang ◽  

Purpose. The long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) play the important role in tumor occurrence and progression, and the epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) is the critical process for tumor migration. However, the role of EMT-related lncRNA in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been elucidated. Methods. In this study, we selected the EMT-related lncRNAs in HCC by using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas database (TCGA). Two prognostic models of the overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) were constructed and validated through Cox regression model, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The unsupervised clustering analysis was utilized to investigate the association between EMT-lncRNAs with tumor immune microenvironment. ESTIMATE algorithm and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) were used to estimate tumor microenvironment and associated KEGG pathways. Results. Two EMT-related lncRNA prognostic models of OS and RFS were constructed. Kaplan-Meier curves showed the dismal prognosis of OS and RFS in the group with high-risk score. The ROC curves and AUC values in two prognostic models indicated the discriminative value in the training set and validation set. Patients with HCC were clustered into two subgroups according the unsupervised clustering analysis. Lnc-CCNY-1 was selected as the key lncRNA. GSVA analysis showed that lnc-CCNY-1 was negatively associated with peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) signaling pathway and positively correlated with CELL cycle pathway. Conclusion. Two EMT-related lncRNA prognostic models of OS and RFS were constructed to discriminate patients and predict prognosis of HCC. EMT-related lncRNAs may play a role on prognosis of HCC by influencing the immune microenvironment. Lnc-CCNY-1 was selected as the key EMT-related lncRNA for further exploration.

2022 ◽  
Mauricio Soares da Silva ◽  
Luiz Cláudio Gomes Pimentel ◽  
Fernando Pereira Duda ◽  
Leonardo Aragão ◽  
Corbiniano Silva ◽  

Abstract Air quality models are essential tools to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDG) because they are effective in guiding public policies for the management of air pollutant emissions and their impacts on the environment and human health. Despite its importance, Brazil still lacks a guide for choosing and setting air quality models for regulatory purposes. Based on this, the current research aims to assess the combined WRF/CALMET/CALPUFF models for representing SO2 dispersion over non-homogeneous regions as a regulatory model for policies in Brazilian Metropolitan Regions to satisfy the UN-SDG. The combined system was applied to the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Region (RJMR), which is known for its physiographic complexity. In the first step, the WRF model was evaluated against surface-observed data. The local circulation was underestimated, while the prevailing observational winds were well-represented. In the second step, it was verified that all CALMET three meteorological configurations performed better for the most frequent wind speed classes, so that the largest SO2 concentrations errors occurred during light winds. Among the meteorological settings in WRF/CALMET/CALPUFF, the joined use of observed and modeled meteorological data yielded the best results for the dispersion of pollutants. This result emphasizes the relevance of meteorological data composition in complex regions with unsatisfactory monitoring given the inherent limitations of prognostic models and the excessive extrapolation of observed data that can generate distortions of reality. This research concludes with the proposal of the WRF/CALMET/CALPUFF air quality regulatory system as a supporting tool for policies in the Brazilian Metropolitan Regions in the framework of the UN-SDG, particularly in non-homogeneous regions where steady-state Gaussian models are not applicable.

2022 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
Sheng-Han Tsai ◽  
Chia-Yin Shih ◽  
Chin-Wei Kuo ◽  
Xin-Min Liao ◽  
Peng-Chan Lin ◽  

AbstractThe primary barrier to initiating palliative care for advanced COPD patients is the unpredictable course of the disease. We enroll 752 COPD patients into the study and validate the prediction tools for 1-year mortality using the current guidelines for palliative care. We also develop a composite prediction index for 1-year mortality and validate it in another cohort of 342 patients. Using the current prognostic models for recent mortality in palliative care, the best area under the curve (AUC) for predicting mortality is 0.68. Using the Modified Medical Research Council dyspnea score and oxygen saturation to define the combined dyspnea and oxygenation (DO) index, we find that the AUC of the DO index is 0.84 for predicting mortality in the validated cohort. Predictions of 1-year mortality based on the current palliative care guideline for COPD patients are poor. The DO index exhibits better predictive ability than other models in the study.

Ursula W. de Ruijter ◽  
Z. L. Rana Kaplan ◽  
Wichor M. Bramer ◽  
Frank Eijkenaar ◽  
Daan Nieboer ◽  

Abstract Background In an effort to improve both quality of care and cost-effectiveness, various care-management programmes have been developed for high-need high-cost (HNHC) patients. Early identification of patients at risk of becoming HNHC (i.e. case finding) is crucial to a programme’s success. We aim to systematically identify prediction models predicting future HNHC healthcare use in adults, to describe their predictive performance and to assess their applicability. Methods Ovid MEDLINE® All, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science and Google Scholar were systematically searched from inception through January 31, 2021. Risk of bias and methodological quality assessment was performed through the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Results Of 5890 studies, 60 studies met inclusion criteria. Within these studies, 313 unique models were presented using a median development cohort size of 20,248 patients (IQR 5601–174,242). Predictors were derived from a combination of data sources, most often claims data (n = 37; 62%) and patient survey data (n = 29; 48%). Most studies (n = 36; 60%) estimated patients’ risk to become part of some top percentage of the cost distribution (top-1–20%) within a mean time horizon of 16 months (range 12–60). Five studies (8%) predicted HNHC persistence over multiple years. Model validation was performed in 45 studies (76%). Model performance in terms of both calibration and discrimination was reported in 14 studies (23%). Overall risk of bias was rated as ‘high’ in 40 studies (67%), mostly due to a ‘high’ risk of bias in the subdomain ‘Analysis’ (n = 37; 62%). Discussion This is the first systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42020164734) of non-proprietary prognostic models predicting HNHC healthcare use. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity. Most identified models estimated a patient’s risk to incur high healthcare expenditure during the subsequent year. However, case-finding strategies for HNHC care-management programmes are best informed by a model predicting HNHC persistence. Therefore, future studies should not only focus on validating and extending existing models, but also concentrate on clinical usefulness.

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Andrew S. Moriarty ◽  
Nicholas Meader ◽  
Kym I. E. Snell ◽  
Richard D. Riley ◽  
Lewis W. Paton ◽  

Background Relapse and recurrence of depression are common, contributing to the overall burden of depression globally. Accurate prediction of relapse or recurrence while patients are well would allow the identification of high-risk individuals and may effectively guide the allocation of interventions to prevent relapse and recurrence. Aims To review prognostic models developed to predict the risk of relapse, recurrence, sustained remission, or recovery in adults with remitted major depressive disorder. Method We searched the Cochrane Library (current issue); Ovid MEDLINE (1946 onwards); Ovid Embase (1980 onwards); Ovid PsycINFO (1806 onwards); and Web of Science (1900 onwards) up to May 2021. We included development and external validation studies of multivariable prognostic models. We assessed risk of bias of included studies using the Prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Results We identified 12 eligible prognostic model studies (11 unique prognostic models): 8 model development-only studies, 3 model development and external validation studies and 1 external validation-only study. Multiple estimates of performance measures were not available and meta-analysis was therefore not necessary. Eleven out of the 12 included studies were assessed as being at high overall risk of bias and none examined clinical utility. Conclusions Due to high risk of bias of the included studies, poor predictive performance and limited external validation of the models identified, presently available clinical prediction models for relapse and recurrence of depression are not yet sufficiently developed for deploying in clinical settings. There is a need for improved prognosis research in this clinical area and future studies should conform to best practice methodological and reporting guidelines.

Sigit Ari Saputro ◽  
Anuchate Pattanateepapon ◽  
Oraluck Pattanaprateep ◽  
Wichai Aekplakorn ◽  
Gareth J. McKay ◽  

Abstract Background Various prognostic models have been derived to predict chronic kidney disease (CKD) development in type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, their generalisability and predictive performance in different populations remain largely unvalidated. This study aimed to externally validate several prognostic models of CKD in a T2D Thai cohort. Methods A nationwide survey was linked with hospital databases to create a prospective cohort of patients with diabetes (n = 3416). We undertook a systematic review to identify prognostic models and traditional metrics (i.e., discrimination and calibration) to compare model performance for CKD prediction. We updated prognostic models by including additional clinical parameters to optimise model performance in the Thai setting. Results Six relevant previously published models were identified. At baseline, C-statistics ranged from 0.585 (0.565–0.605) to 0.786 (0.765–0.806) for CKD and 0.657 (0.610–0.703) to 0.760 (0.705–0.816) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). All original CKD models showed fair calibration with Observed/Expected (O/E) ratios ranging from 0.999 (0.975–1.024) to 1.009 (0.929–1.090). Hosmer–Lemeshow tests indicated a good fit for all models. The addition of routine clinical factors (i.e., glucose level and oral diabetes medications) enhanced model prediction by improved C-statistics of Low’s of 0.114 for CKD and Elley’s of 0.025 for ESRD. Conclusions All models showed moderate discrimination and fair calibration. Updating models to include routine clinical factors substantially enhanced their accuracy. Low’s (developed in Singapore) and Elley’s model (developed in New Zealand), outperformed the other models evaluated. These models can assist clinicians to improve the risk-stratification of diabetic patients for CKD and/or ESRD in the regions settings are similar to Thailand. Graphical abstract

2022 ◽  
Xiaokai Yan ◽  
Chiying Xiao ◽  
Kunyan Yue ◽  
Min Chen ◽  
Hang Zhou ◽  

Abstract Genome changes play a crucial role in carcinogenesis, and many biomarkers can be used as effective prognostic indicators in various tumours. Although previous studies have constructed many predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on molecular signatures, the performance is unsatisfactory. To fill this shortcoming, we hope to build a more accurate predictive model to guide prognostic assessments of HCC. We use the TCGA to identify crucial biomarkers and construct single-omic prognostic models through difference analysis, univariate Cox, and LASSO/stepwise Cox analysis. The performances of single-omic models were evaluated and validated through survival analysis, Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A multi-omics model was built and evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA), C-index, and ROC analysis. Multiple mRNAs, lncRNAs, miRNAs, CNV genes, and SNPs were significantly associated with the prognosis of HCC. Five single-omic models were constructed, and the mRNA and lncRNA models showed good performance with c-indexes over 0.70. The multi-omics model presented a quite predictive solid ability with a c-index over 0.80. In this study, we identified many biomarkers that may help study underlying carcinogenesis mechanisms in HCC. In addition, we constructed multiple single-omic models and an integrated multi-omics model that may provide practical and reliable guides for prognosis assessment and treatment decision-making.

2022 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Akriti G. Jain ◽  
Hany Elmariah

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are a diverse group of hematological malignancies distinguished by a combination of dysplasia in the bone marrow, cytopenias and the risk of leukemic transformation. The hallmark of MDS is bone marrow failure which occurs due to selective growth of somatically mutated clonal hematopoietic stem cells. Multiple prognostic models have been developed to help predict survival and leukemic transformation, including the international prognostic scoring system (IPSS), revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R), WHO prognostic scoring system (WPSS) and MD Anderson prognostic scoring system (MDAPSS). This risk stratification informs management as low risk (LR)-MDS treatment focuses on improving quality of life and cytopenias, while the treatment of high risk (HR)-MDS focuses on delaying disease progression and improving survival. While therapies such as erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs), erythroid maturation agents (EMAs), immunomodulatory imide drugs (IMIDs), and hypomethylating agents (HMAs) may provide benefit, allogeneic blood or marrow transplant (alloBMT) is the only treatment that can offer cure for MDS. However, this therapy is marred, historically, by high rates of toxicity and transplant related mortality (TRM). Because of this, alloBMT is considered in a minority of MDS patients. With modern techniques, alloBMT has become a suitable option even for patients of advanced age or with significant comorbidities, many of whom who would not have been considered for transplant in prior years. Hence, a formal transplant evaluation to weigh the complex balance of patient and disease related factors and determine the potential benefit of transplant should be considered early in the disease course for most MDS patients. Once alloBMT is recommended, timing is a crucial consideration since delaying transplant can lead to disease progression and development of other comorbidities that may preclude transplant. Despite the success of alloBMT, relapse remains a major barrier to success and novel approaches are necessary to mitigate this risk and improve long term cure rates. This review describes various factors that should be considered when choosing patients with MDS who should pursue transplant, approaches and timing of transplant, and future directions of the field.

PLoS ONE ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. e0262234
Jiazheng Zhao ◽  
Yi Zhao ◽  
Xiaowei Ma ◽  
Helin Feng ◽  
Rongmin Cui

Background Ferroptosis has exhibited great potential in the treatment of cancer and has gained widespread attention in soft tissue sarcoma (STS). The aim was to explore the immunological and prognostic significance of novel ferroptosis-related genes in STS. Methods We identified ferroptosis-related differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in STS to construct the networks of enrichment analysis and protein-protein interaction. Subsequently, hub genes with prognostic significance were localized and a series of prognostic and immune analyses were performed. Results 40 ferroptosis-related DEGs were identified, of which HELLS, STMN1 EPAS1, CXCL2, NQO1, and IL6 were classified as hub genes and were associated with the prognosis in STS patients. In the results of the immune analysis, PDCD1, CTLA4, TIGIT, IDO1 and CD27 exhibited consistent intense correlations as immune checkpoint genes, as well as macrophage, neutrophil, cytotoxic cell, dendritic cell, interdigitating dendritic cell and plasmacytoid dendritic cell as immune cells. EPAS1 and HELLS might be independent prognostic factors for STS patients, and separate prognostic models were constructed by using them. Conclusions We recognized novel ferroptosis-related genes with prognostic value in STS. Furthermore, we searched out potential immune checkpoints and critical immune cells.

Cancers ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 239
Kalle E. Mattila ◽  
Paula Vainio ◽  
Panu M. Jaakkola

Approximately 20% of patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) present with primarily metastatic disease and over 30% of patients with localized RCC will develop distant metastases later, after complete resection of the primary tumor. Accurate postoperative prognostic models are essential for designing personalized surveillance programs, as well as for designing adjuvant therapy and trials. Several clinical and histopathological prognostic factors have been identified and adopted into prognostic algorithms to assess the individual risk for disease recurrence after radical or partial nephrectomy. However, the prediction accuracy of current prognostic models has been studied in retrospective patient cohorts and the optimal set of prognostic features remains unclear. In addition to traditional histopathological prognostic factors, novel biomarkers, such as gene expression profiles and circulating tumor DNA, are extensively studied to supplement existing prognostic algorithms to improve their prediction accuracy. Here, we aim to give an overview of existing prognostic features and prediction models for localized postoperative clear cell RCC and discuss their role in the adjuvant therapy trials. The results of ongoing placebo-controlled adjuvant therapy trials may elucidate prognostic factors and biomarkers that help to define patients at high risk for disease recurrence.

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