Abstract
Against the paramount role of actual evapotranspiration (ET) in hydrological modeling, determining its values is mixed with different sources of uncertainties. In addition, estimation of ET with energy-based methods (e.g., METRIC) leads to different results with various acceptable initial and boundary conditions (such as land use and cold/hot pixels). The aim of the current research is to allow the uncertainty effects of ET as an interval-based input variable in hydrological modeling. The goal is achieved via feeding the uncertainty of computed ET values to the developed Interval-Based Water Balance (IBWB) model in terms of gray values. To this purpose, the comprehensive monthly water balance model (including surface and groundwater modules) has been revised to a new interval-based form. Moreover, the METRIC model has been used 20 times in each month of computational period to calculate the ET patterns with different hot/cold pixels to provide monthly ensemble ET values. For a comprehensive assessment, the selected water balance model has been calibrated with ensemble means of the computed ET with its classical type. The study area is a mountainous sub-basin of the Sefidrood watershed, Ghorveh-Dehgolan basin, with three alluvial aquifers in the North of Iran. Not only the paradigm shift from determinist to interval-based hydrologic structure improved the statistical metrics of the models’ responses, but also it decreased the uncertainty of the simulated streamflow and groundwater levels.
Uncertainty in a monthly water balance model using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology
